Comparing Draft Eligibles and Breakout Sophomores and on

[olafson1393]

I haven't seen a thread that asks this question quite in the way that I'm concerned with, though I'm not saying that there definitely isn't one. I'm in a 12 team keeper league (team #2 in signature) that is approximately 350-400 players deep (12 rosters plus free agent/waiver pool). The waiver pool consists mostly of depleted veterans who've been dropped in the past. Our draft is in October and is 5 rounds deep, it usually consists of 30-40% first year players (freshly drafted), another 30-40% sophomores to sometimes fourth years, with the rest consisting of a few "wiley" old veterans who've seemingly stepped up their game in the last year to become fantasy relevant.

What I'm wondering is - as a half assed rebuilding team, or even as a full blown rebuilding team, how do you compare the value of a draft eligible (actually freshly drafted or even guys who are just still in junior) to a player with some AHL experience or even a year or two in the NHL finally starting to breakout who hadn't been previously drafted"


Some comparisons I have in mind are:

Patrik Laine vs Vincent Trochek
Jesse Puljujarvi vs Rickard Rackell
Alex Nylander vs Jakub Vrana
Colton Parayko vs Zach Werenski
Tyson Jost vs Erik Haula or Oscar Lindberg or Kevin Labanc or Pavel Buchnevich
Shayne Gho... kidding, there aren't many comparisons there, as far as I know.

Also, as for the guys who are kind of on the same playing field, what are you opinions on these?
Jimmy Vesey vs Sebastian Aho
Joseph Blandisi vs Seth Griffith

We have the last playoff spot but with a few extra picks in the draft I'm looking at picking 5, 17, 22, 24 to round out the first 2 rounds.

These are my top 30 as of today, any changes?

1	F	Auston Matthews
2	D	Shayne Gostisbehre
3	F	Patrik Laine
4	F	Vincent Trochek
5	F	Rickard Rackell
6	F	Jesse Puljujarvi
7	F	Nino Nietereiter
8	F	Matthew Tkachuk
9	F	Jimmy Vesey
10	F	Sebastian Aho
11	F	Pierre-Luc Dubois
12	F	Joseph Blandisi
13	F	Seth Griffith
14	F	Travis Konecny
15	F	Alexander Nylander
16	F	Jakub Vrana
17	F	Alexander Khokhlachev
18	D	Colton Parayko
19	F	Nikolay Goldobin
20	D	Zach Werenski
21	F	Brayden Point
22	F	Tobias Rieder
23	F	Joonas Donskoi
24	F	Ivan Barbashev
25	F	Pavel Buchnevich
26	D	Jakob Chychrun
27	F	Oscar Lindberg
28	F	Erik Haula
29	F	Kevin Labanc
30	F	Tyson Jost

[Eskimo Brother]

I would be moving Rakell and Niederreiter down (Rakell probably around 13-15 and NN around 19-21). NN loses a lot of value since hits aren't counted, and I don't see him breaking the top 6 anytime soon.
Parayko I would move up to the 8-10 range (if not as high as 6 behind Jesse P). Having proven he can do what he did makes him a lot more valuable.
My last point is wondering why Juolevi isn't on this list? For me he would probably be right in the middle with Alex Nylander.

- - - Updated - - -

Also welcome to the forums!

[olafson1393]

I've been using NHLe to compare them in my rankings. Not a perfect method by any means, also depends on where you're stealing your numbers from. Matchsticks and Gasoline had a post on NHLe once and I stole most of them from there. If a guy had the time and references, NHLe/60 would be great, and as much as I consider myself to have somewhat of a hockey problem, I don't think there are enough hours in the day - regardless, I have a Liiga NHLe of 44.28 leaving JesseP with an NHLe (~43) below the trendline of my list, almost has me second guessing myself - The next two players below the trendline are Dubois at 39 and Blandisi at 38.

[Goldendelicious]

Michael McLeod should easily be on your top 30 radar here. I'll come back with a ranking in a bit because this intrigues me and I have some guys that would be higher/lower on your list.

[olafson1393]

Definitely, I appreciate the tip. I've got a list of 116 guys right now (didn't want to take up all that room on a post) , even though only 60 will be picked in the draft. I find its more fun to scramble for the guys who've made a surprising impact this season in the bigs or the A who haven't been picked than copying down ISS's list. Also the best way to look like an idiot come draft time when you completely miss Panarin in your rankings in 2014 and take Provorov at 12, that might be first hand experience. Panarin was taken at 5 anyways, but I still felt pretty stupid for not having him on my list at all.

[finnys_fanatsy]

..subscribed. quite intrested in this as well. i began a rebuild mid season and ended up with 5 and 6 overall in the draft.

[olafson1393]

As far as draft eligibles go, is it fair to say in order of offensive upside, the top 10 might go something like - Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk, Dubois, Nylander, Keller, McLeod, Jost, Gauthier, Bellows, Bean

[Eskimo Brother]

As far as draft eligibles go, is it fair to say in order of offensive upside, the top 10 might go something like - Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk, Dubois, Nylander, Keller, McLeod, Jost, Gauthier, Bellows, Bean

The great part is that everyone coming by will have different opinions. Without going too into a debate with it, that is a decent top 10 list

[olafson1393]

I'm always curious to compare lists with fellow owners in the league after the draft - see who I could've waited on and whatnot, though I fear that might be going against the auto-body man's code of never feeling another man's work.

[FinnishFlash]

The great part is that everyone coming by will have different opinions. Without going too into a debate with it, that is a decent top 10 list

Agree that is a pretty decent top 10. I think 5 to 15 in this draft could be very interesting from a fantasy perspective, as I don't think there is a whole lot of separation there. If it were me, as of right now I'd probably rank them like this:

1. Mathews
2. Laine
3. Puljujarvi
4. Tkachuk
5. Dubois
6. Nylander
7. Chyruchn
8. Gauthier
9. McLeod
10. Bellows
11. Keller
12. Juolevi
13. Sergachev
14. Brown
15. Rubtsov

[franklin]

Offensive upside? Never easy to mix D and forward so I'd go with the F only:

1. Mathews
2. Laine
3. Puljujarvi
4. Dubois
5. Tkachuk
6. Nylander
7. Keller
8. Jost
9. Brown
10. Bellows
11. Rubtsov
12. Abramov *Huge upside but size?
13. McLeod
14. Gauthier

[olafson1393]

Offensive upside? Never easy to mix D and forward so I'd go with the F only:

I saw it the same way, I wasn't sure where Chyruchn or Juolevi would fit into their list. I'm fully aware that they're both highly likely to go inside the top 10 when it comes to the NHL draft, but if history is any factor, I know Provorov dropped to 12 in our entry draft last year. Hanifin was taken at 5, but I've far rather have been the guy who took the more established Klingberg at 7. A big part of the reason I have Ghost ranked so high in my overall list. I've since moved Parayko up as well.

[olafson1393]

Some of the names outside of 10 are a little less familiar. With our league's depth of about 400-450, where do guys like that slot in among my original list? To me they're not even on the board, they couldn't surpass guys like Buchnevich and Haula in value yet.

[Eskimo Brother]

One guy that hasn't really been touched on much is Max Jones of the Knights. I feel like he could be a bit of a steal a few years down the line if he gets grabbed in the 10-15 range. Great size and really knows how to use it along-side the skill guys. It would not surprise me one bit to see the Leafs draft him if they can with the pick they have from Pitt, to stick him with Marner. He will be a wonderful cycle player and net front presence with 30-30 upside.

[2014olympicgold]

One guy that hasn't really been touched on much is Max Jones of the Knights. I feel like he could be a bit of a steal a few years down the line if he gets grabbed in the 10-15 range. Great size and really knows how to use it along-side the skill guys. It would not surprise me one bit to see the Leafs draft him if they can with the pick they have from Pitt, to stick him with Marner. He will be a wonderful cycle player and net front presence with 30-30 upside.

I don’t think Jones drops to 27^th (I think that’s where Pitts is), he’s more of a 15-20. Lou Lam likes moving up to get guys he wants, so maybe he pulls a deal where it’s a 1^st+3^rd to move up a few spots.

And if they move up, I kinda want Keiffer Bellows over Jones. Dude’s shot is lethal. Issue is he’s committed to BU, and his D-zone play isn’t good. But man his shot.