Comparing Draft Eligibles and Breakout Sophomores and on

[Eskimo Brother]

I don’t think Jones drops to 27^th (I think that’s where Pitts is), he’s more of a 15-20. Lou Lam likes moving up to get guys he wants, so maybe he pulls a deal where it’s a 1^st+3^rd to move up a few spots.

And if they move up, I kinda want Keiffer Bellows over Jones. Dude’s shot is lethal. Issue is he’s committed to BU, and his D-zone play isn’t good. But man his shot.

Pittsburgh's slot depends on where they finish, and it will be a higher pick if they don't make it past NYR or WAS.

I can't say I know too much about Bellows, but if he is worthy of the praise then maybe I should look into him a little further. We have seen one dimensional players with great shots struggle to adjust sometimes though, a-la Pulkannen.

[franklin]

Pittsburgh's slot depends on where they finish, and it will be a higher pick if they don't make it past NYR or WAS.

I can't say I know too much about Bellows, but if he is worthy of the praise then maybe I should look into him a little further. We have seen one dimensional players with great shots struggle to adjust sometimes though, a-la Pulkannen.

Bellows is not one dimensional. He is big skilled power forward. And he hits and win board battles. I would be more than happy to have him on my team.

[Eskimo Brother]

Bellows is not one dimensional. He is big skilled power forward. And he hits and win board battles. I would be more than happy to have him on my team.

Apparently I do need to look a little more into him then. Apologies for my ignorance there.

[franklin]

Apparently I do need to look a little more into him then. Apologies for my ignorance there.

Not an easy task to follow the USND team. But now it's a good time with the U18.

[2014olympicgold]

Pittsburgh's slot depends on where they finish, and it will be a higher pick if they don't make it past NYR or WAS.

I can't say I know too much about Bellows, but if he is worthy of the praise then maybe I should look into him a little further. We have seen one dimensional players with great shots struggle to adjust sometimes though, a-la Pulkannen.

Per WIKI:

The basic order of the NHL Entry Draft is determined based on the standings of the teams in the previous season. As with the other major sports leagues, the basic draft order is intended to favour the teams with the weakest performance who presumably need the most improvement in their roster to compete with the other teams. Subject to the results of the NHL Draft Lottery (discussed below), the teams pick in the same order each round, with each team getting one pick per round. The basic order of the picks is determined as follows:

1. The teams that did not qualify for the playoffs the previous season (picks 1-14)
2. The teams that made the playoffs in the previous season but did not win either their division in the regular season or the Stanley Cup (picks 15-25 or 26)
3. The teams that won their divisions in the previous season but did not win the Stanley Cup (picks 25 or 26-29)
4. The team that won the Stanley Cup in the previous season (pick 30)

So the Penguins finished 2^nd in their division. So they fall under 2. But based on their point total, it’ll be No2 (above). So 25/26^th.

They could still win the cup too.

[Goldendelicious]

One guy that hasn't really been touched on much is Max Jones of the Knights. I feel like he could be a bit of a steal a few years down the line if he gets grabbed in the 10-15 range. Great size and really knows how to use it along-side the skill guys. It would not surprise me one bit to see the Leafs draft him if they can with the pick they have from Pitt, to stick him with Marner. He will be a wonderful cycle player and net front presence with 30-30 upside.

Max Jones has two fold problem to aide his draft fall to the lower portion of round 1 based off what I have seen this season.

1st and foremost is his 'lack of production' in the OHL this year. He played on such a high offensive team in London and was listed as a top 5 pick heading into the draft that I expected a much better offensive output. Now that will come with time.

2nd, and this is where a knock is coming against him amongst the scouts is his on ice demeanour. He had a lot of questionable hits targeting the heads of opposing players throughout the season but finally got nailed in the playoffs with the suspension. Scouts are starting to question his maturity which will develop, but could hurt him on draft day (similar to Ho-Sang).

Jones is a good hockey player no doubt but every game I've seen London play this year, he hasn't impressed enough individually and moreso relies on others around him to make him look good. I'd still say he's the number 4 draft eligible player in London right now....which I have ranked Tkachuk, Pu, Mete, Jones...that's not a prediction of how they will go in the draft, merely a prediction of who will break through to the NHL and be the most effective when they get there (taking into account more than just scoring) based off the amount of hockey I've watched them play this year.

[Eskimo Brother]

So the Penguins finished 2^nd in their division. So they fall under 2. But based on their point total, it’ll be No2 (above). So 25/26^th.

I guess I hadn't familiarized myself with some of the new formats. I had it in my head that there was seeding based on what round you were eliminated in, and from there it was based on regular season finish.

[Goldendelicious]

1. The teams that did not qualify for the playoffs the previous season (picks 1-14)
2. The teams that made the playoffs in the previous season but did not win either their division in the regular season or the Stanley Cup (picks 15-25 or 26)
3. The teams that won their divisions in the previous season but did not win the Stanley Cup (picks 25 or 26-29)
4. The team that won the Stanley Cup in the previous season (pick 30)

Well that's a pretty stupid change from years past. There really is no incentive other than home ice to win your division. You go out in the first round and you get screwed on the draft pick end. Brutal change.

[olafson1393]

When we're looking at offence only, I think I've spotting a gaping hole in my top 15 where Alex DeBrincat might slot in... The guy had been shredding the O all year, I almost forgot he was a draft eligible. He might look like this years Daniel Sprong, with the lacking defensive play, but does anyone see that legitimately holding him back from having a successful NHL career...? Averaged out he's projecting to get picked at about 26, so either a contender or where a contenders pick has or will ends up. I'm thinking fantasy wise though, he might slot in somewhere among the likes of Boeser, Vesey, Aho, Rackell, Dubouis... Am I out to lunch?

[Eskimo Brother]

I'm thinking fantasy wise though, he might slot in somewhere among the likes of Boeser, Vesey, Aho, Rackell, Dubouis... Am I out to lunch?

My thoughts are that he is a step behind all of those players. He could end up producing in the right situation (like last year lining up with McDavid), but he's not someone I would be reaching for.

[olafson1393]

An update to my personal list in regards to this thread - I've made some adjustments based on the discussion here and here's what I've got!

Notes:
-Realized Nino was already taken in the draft, wouldn't that have been embarrassing...
-Probably a slight change in philosophy over the last month in terms of increasing my value in proven production rather than potential upside.
-Thinking the other two draft eligible defensemen that are in the conversation for going first should probably be added in there as well - have Chyshrun at 34

Thoughts?

1	Auston Matthews	0
2	Shayne Gostisbehre	0
3	Alexander Radulov	New
4	Patrik Laine	-1
5	Jesse Puljujarvi	+1
6	Vincent Trochek	-2
8	Sebastian Aho	+2
9	Colton Parayko	+9
10	Rickard Rackell	-5
11	Matthew Tkachuk	-3
11	Joonas Donskoi	+12
12	Alexander Nylander	+3
14	Jimmy Vesey	-5
15	Travis Konecny	-1
16	Brock Boeser	New
17	Seth Griffith	-4
18	Tobias Rieder	+4
19	Joseph Blandisi	-7
20	Jakub Vrana	-4
21	Zach Werenski	-1
22	Pierre-Luc Dubois	-11
23	Nikita Zaitsev	New
24	Alexander Khokhlachev	-7
25	Nikolay Goldobin	-6
26	Brayden Point	-5
27	Ivan Barbashev	-3
28	Tyson Jost	+2
29	Alex Debrincat	New
30	Pavel Buchnevich	-5
31	Erik Haula	-3
32	Artturi Lehkonen	New
33	Clayton Keller	New
34	Jakob Chychrun	-8
35	Olli Joulevi	New

[franklin]

I would take Laine and Puljujarvi over Radulov no doubt.

[hockeey]

An update to my personal list in regards to this thread - I've made some adjustments based on the discussion here and here's what I've got!

Notes:
-Realized Nino was already taken in the draft, wouldn't that have been embarrassing...
-Probably a slight change in philosophy over the last month in terms of increasing my value in proven production rather than potential upside.
-Thinking the other two draft eligible defensemen that are in the conversation for going first should probably be added in there as well - have Chyshrun at 34

Thoughts?

1	Auston Matthews	0
2	Shayne Gostisbehre	0
3	Alexander Radulov	New
4	Patrik Laine	-1
5	Jesse Puljujarvi	+1
6	Vincent Trochek	-2
8	Sebastian Aho	+2
9	Colton Parayko	+9
10	Rickard Rackell	-5
11	Matthew Tkachuk	-3
11	Joonas Donskoi	+12
12	Alexander Nylander	+3
14	Jimmy Vesey	-5
15	Travis Konecny	-1
16	Brock Boeser	New
17	Seth Griffith	-4
18	Tobias Rieder	+4
19	Joseph Blandisi	-7
20	Jakub Vrana	-4
21	Zach Werenski	-1
22	Pierre-Luc Dubois	-11
23	Nikita Zaitsev	New
24	Alexander Khokhlachev	-7
25	Nikolay Goldobin	-6
26	Brayden Point	-5
27	Ivan Barbashev	-3
28	Tyson Jost	+2
29	Alex Debrincat	New
30	Pavel Buchnevich	-5
31	Erik Haula	-3
32	Artturi Lehkonen	New
33	Clayton Keller	New
34	Jakob Chychrun	-8
35	Olli Joulevi	New

I think obviously you'd want a guy who is in the NHL over a guy who is 2 year away if the difference in upside is marginal (5-10 points).

I think A. Nylander, Blandisi, Rieder, and Griffith are too high.

Nylander I see as at least a couple years away from the NHL (like his brother) but I really don't think he's in the same tier as his brother. His skating is nowhere near Williams and his greatest asset, his shot, may not translate in my opinion due to his release being very mediocre and not fast at all. If he can speed it up he can be an NHL sniper but otherwise he'll have issues. He is a guy who, depending on how he develops this summer, will either be high end or could be one of those fringe middle six wingers who are skilled but don't score because of physicality issues (Gagner). I wasn't too impressed by his highlight reel which is usually supposed to make players look better than they are. Not a lot of his goals look like they'll translate to the NHL (he either has tons of space to shoot or he relies on moves that may work in the NHL but will have a much lower success rate). I also watched one of his games and he can be pretty lazy defensively and make some pretty weak, low percentage passes in the offensive zone that lead to turnovers. I wanted to be high on him but everytime I've watched him I've come away disappointed (I was extremely high on guys like Connor, Pastrnak, Sprong, Ehlers, and Vrana during their draft years so it's not something I have against skilled guys).

Blandisi looks like he has a ceiling of around 50 points and that's if he's lucky. I'm not sure I'm sold on him yet and NJ doesn't have many offensive weapons yet to help him out.

Tobias Rieder is going to forever be a 40 point guy I think. He's just never really put up high end numbers and there will probably be waiver options worth close to his value.

Griffith looks like a guy who will put up huge AHL numbers but not produce well in the NHL since he's not fast enough to offset his size. Look at Vatrano as I think he is the best option from the Providence Bruins.

Some guys I can see being higher are Dubois, Boeser, Werenski, and Keller.

Boeser won't be in the NHL next season but look for him the season after. Insane draft+1 season and I'd at least move him ahead of Vesey and Nylander.

Werenski is going to be a high end offensive defenseman. Being a left shot should allow him to be on the top PP by Jones.

I see Keller being one of those guys who raises his value a ton and gets a lot of recognition after his draft season (like Connor, Ehlers, Boeser, or W. Nylander). He has high end skill and I think he can make the NHL after one or two years of college.

The guy I'm most surprised about is Dubois. I'd easily put him in the top 10, even over guys like Aho, Rakell, and even Tkachuk. He has elite skill, size, shooting, and doesn't have the skating issues most tall guys have (he moves around very quickly). One of the smartest players in this draft too. He could probably make the NHL next season but I'd hope he gets one more year in the Q to develop even more. I think he's right on the cusp of being in the same tier as Pulju and Laine. He's only a few months older than Nolan Patrick (likely 1st overall 2017 draft pick) and he is outscoring him points per game wise.

[blackaces]

You seem to have a good handle on this year's draftees, so I'm wondering if guys like Rantanen, Bjorkstrand, Dvorak & Labanc are available. And don't forget Jake Walman on D. These guys won't bump the top 9 or 0 but should be considered after that.

[olafson1393]

I think A. Nylander, Blandisi, Rieder, and Griffith are too high.

Wow. Just wow. Super impressed with that response. Thanks! I think you make a lot of good points towards all of those guys. I haven't been sure on Dubois for the longest time, to be honest he's a guy who's jumped around in my rankings from where he was to top 6 and back down depending on the day and what I'm hearing. Hadnt heard so much against Nylander but I still think you make a lot of fair points. As for the sophomores that definitely something a guy has to take into consideration especially with what you mentioned about Rieder, there's always going to be veterans or established guys on the waiver wire who go through hot streaks and outscore him by a wide margin.


BlackAces - Rantanen, Bjorkstrand, Dvorak are taken - I have Bjork and have been trying to pry away Rantanen here and there but I think the further along we get the higher his value is, so I might have to leave that in the past. I have Lebanc ranked 41 behind Lehkonen, Lindberg, Kempe for forwards, too low? Walman wasn't on my radar, behind the MAthesons/Montours/sLAVINS AND Klefboms though wouldn't you say?