THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
I'm in a dead heat atop my pool and every point counts. See sig for format and team.
I'm struggling with how many of Holtby (Pit), Ortio (Van) and Anderson (Fla) I should start tonight. Team I'm tied with looks to be starting Darling (StL) and Miller (@Cgy).
I feel like Ortio is the best bet for a win. But then I have no clue whether I should start either of Anderson or Holtby or bench them both.
Suggestions?
Always a Bridesmaid
C MacK, Kopitar, Krejci
L Hall, Beauvillier, Robertson
R Rust (L), Carter (C/L)
D Theodore, Carlson, Josi, Reilly (Bos)
G Shesterkin, Nedeljkovic, Campbell, Greiss
1Y H2H [G, A, +-, PPP, SOG, H], [W, SV%, GAA, SO]
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
A few questions:
1. I see the point values in your signature, but just to clarify that this is a weighted points league (season cumulative)? I figure that's the case based on how you explained your dilemma but just want to be sure.
2. Assuming yes to #1, do you have max games per position? If so, how many goalie games do you have remaining?
3. So we don't have to calculate, generally what do you need from a goalie performance in order to make it a worthwhile start?
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
Sorry about that. Yes, it's a weighted cumulative points league. I'm 10 points back with 10 games in hand and am averaging about 1 ppg so it's tight.
I have 8 goalie games remaining so I'm not going to reach my cap. Ortio and Anderson are going tonight. Schneider probably has one more start in him. Korpisalo might or might not tomorrow. Hotly probably has two more starts. so need to worry about capping out. BUT sitting a goalie might be better than starting one if he's going to lose me points.
Clearly wins are good, although I'm not assessed a loss -1 if I can get to OT and if the loss is 4-3 SO then I am not assessed the loss or the -1 for the 4th goal, only the -3 for the 3 goals against. The rule of thumb is that I want 10 saves for every goal, so a 10/11 save percentage (0.909). So if I can walk away with a 0.909 save percentage, I will get -1 for a loss and +2 for a win. It's pretty hard to play so badly that I lose points on a win (it would look something like a 5-4 win with fewer than 20 saves) but I could also make points on a loss (like a 2-4 loss with more than 30 saves).
Ortio has a 2.74 GAA so that's like -2.7 off the bat. Van is averaging 28 SOGpg so that would be 25 saves -1.2 for a loss or +1.8 for a win.
Anderson has a 2.81 GAA. Florida averages 29 SOGpg so that would be 26 saves for the exact same -1.2 or +1.8
Holtby has a 2.2 GAA. Pittsburgh averages 33 SOG for 31 saves and -0.1 for a loss vs. +2.9 for a win.
Seems like a clear go for Holtby...
Dilemma: Holtby hasn't been that good lately and the Penguins are unlikely to score only twice tonight.
Ortiz's been even worse lately so I don't know if I trust him against even Vancouver.
And who can ever peg Anderson.
Always a Bridesmaid
C MacK, Kopitar, Krejci
L Hall, Beauvillier, Robertson
R Rust (L), Carter (C/L)
D Theodore, Carlson, Josi, Reilly (Bos)
G Shesterkin, Nedeljkovic, Campbell, Greiss
1Y H2H [G, A, +-, PPP, SOG, H], [W, SV%, GAA, SO]
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
I would go with Ortio for sure, and flip a coin on Holtby. Hopefully he is on his game tonight as he knows he needs to be to catch the record, just another point to keep in mind.
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
1 rep if you're right! (good luck to us) Holtby's coin came up "start him".
Always a Bridesmaid
C MacK, Kopitar, Krejci
L Hall, Beauvillier, Robertson
R Rust (L), Carter (C/L)
D Theodore, Carlson, Josi, Reilly (Bos)
G Shesterkin, Nedeljkovic, Campbell, Greiss
1Y H2H [G, A, +-, PPP, SOG, H], [W, SV%, GAA, SO]
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
Yeah! Best of luck. I have Ortio starting in another league of mine
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
One more interesting tidbit: the guy I'm tied with is starting Murray tonight. So it could be do or die for one of us.
Always a Bridesmaid
C MacK, Kopitar, Krejci
L Hall, Beauvillier, Robertson
R Rust (L), Carter (C/L)
D Theodore, Carlson, Josi, Reilly (Bos)
G Shesterkin, Nedeljkovic, Campbell, Greiss
1Y H2H [G, A, +-, PPP, SOG, H], [W, SV%, GAA, SO]
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
That makes it even better.
Almost as big a deal as the Boston and Detroit game tonight for the playoffs
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
The NHL (or any league) must love it when the schedule works out like that. Go Ortio!
Always a Bridesmaid
C MacK, Kopitar, Krejci
L Hall, Beauvillier, Robertson
R Rust (L), Carter (C/L)
D Theodore, Carlson, Josi, Reilly (Bos)
G Shesterkin, Nedeljkovic, Campbell, Greiss
1Y H2H [G, A, +-, PPP, SOG, H], [W, SV%, GAA, SO]
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
Not working out too well so far for Detroit…
And Holtby letting in an early goal. Hopefully he settles down
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
I guess Anderson was the right pick here. At least Ortio got you the win
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
Final tally:
Ortio W, 3GA, 24S for +1.4
Holtby 4GA, 31S for -0.9
Anderson W, 1GA, 33S for +4.3
Thanks for playing....
THROW!
THEM!
DARTS!
Join us again on Saturday when...nah, I'll just start Schneider and Holtby.
Always a Bridesmaid
C MacK, Kopitar, Krejci
L Hall, Beauvillier, Robertson
R Rust (L), Carter (C/L)
D Theodore, Carlson, Josi, Reilly (Bos)
G Shesterkin, Nedeljkovic, Campbell, Greiss
1Y H2H [G, A, +-, PPP, SOG, H], [W, SV%, GAA, SO]
Re: THROW THEM DARTS! (goalie dilemma)
You have to wonder if they don't start Grubauer B2B to give Holtby rest before the playoffs begin since the remaining games are meaningless.Originally Posted by Starstruck
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