Which player would you pick FIRST OVERALL in playoff pool draft??

[JagrBomb]

Based on what?

new york and tampa don't seem like threats this year with their injuries.

florida, despite their record is still a young team that i can't see going far in the playoffs

i think the caps can beat DET/NYI.

so it comes down to their 1st round matchup, PHI/BOS, who i suppose could give them trouble.

which non-penguin team do you think can beat them?

[Pengwin7]

i don't agree with Ovechkin. If you like the Caps to go deep, Kuznetsov and Backstrom are better for points.

I wouldn't go with the caps just based on their history.

You guys laugh but Caps fans will understand why you should never say they are a sure thing to do anything. If they play Pittsburgh they will lose. They always have. They can't get over the hump. Ovechkin is also rumored to be playing with an injury.

The Caps haven't been as good over the last month or so and Holtby's numbers have declined. They are not exactly hot at the right time. IIRC they have given up a ton of first period goals in the laast few months compared to the other teams, and are rallying back in games. That's not a recipe for playoff success if that continues.

Vegas odds mean nothing when the puck hits the ice (and I am a gambler, a very good gambler). Hockey is too much a crap shoot with randomness. This isn't basketball where you know the Cavs and Warriors or Spurs are the only teams that have a chance. I actually do have money on the Caps to win the Cup along with some other teams, but I can't fully trust the Caps or Barry Trotz (who has proven nothing in the playoffs) to go to the Final. I'm a Sens fan who lived through the days when the Sens were always the East or Cup favourite in the early 2000's. We always lost to the Leafs.

I'm not saying the Caps shouldn't be the favourite, but I just can't trust them to do anything. That's just me, I just wouldn't rely on Caps in a playoff pool. On paper they are the best team, but head to head in 7 games under pressure, I'm taking the Rangers and Penguins over them. I also would might pick the Flyers if they play eachother in Round 1, or at least for the series to go 7 games. The Flyers are red hot and have firepower and good goaltending. The Caps always find a way to let their city down, and I always find a way to make money off it as I bet Montreal to beat them in 2010, Pittsburgh in 2009, etc. It is a different team, but like I said I just can't shake the negative vibes that always come from the Caps in the playoffs.

Based on what?

Ev.. you realize you've now got 4 posts in this thread and NONE of them offer any help to the OP?
You've basically only said you wouldn't pick OV and you wouldn't pick WAS.
This is pretty much my #1 pet peeve of forum replies... when people bash other people's opinions and don't offer anything helpful to the actual OP.
You basically just set yourself up so you can revisit the thread if/when OV/WAS gets bounced and say "Oh, look at me... I told you all" (you're simply picking "the field" here, which IS still better odds than WAS going to CUP).

Be.on.the.record.
Who are you taking 1st overall in a playoff pool?
Which two teams do you think are going all the way?

Offer the guy some damn help.

[Big Ev]

Ev.. you realize you've now got 4 posts in this thread and NONE of them offer any help to the OP?
You've basically only said you wouldn't pick OV and you wouldn't pick WAS.
This is pretty much my #1 pet peeve of forum replies... when people bash other people's opinions and don't offer anything helpful to the actual OP.
You basically just set yourself up so you can revisit the thread if/when OV/WAS gets bounced and say "Oh, look at me... I told you all" (you're simply picking "the field" here, which IS still better odds than WAS going to CUP).

Be.on.the.record.
Who are you taking 1st overall in a playoff pool?
Which two teams do you think are going all the way?

Offer the guy some damn help.

Chill out. Stop getting so worked up. I didn't BASH anybody's opinion. To say that my posts didn't help OP is wrong. All you did is say "Washington is the favorite so go with them". Very helpful Pengwin, because OP already didn't know that eh. It took a lot of analysis to come to that conclusion, so kudos to you.

I thought I said it but I would take Pittsburgh. I don't know who to pick from the West.

[PensInThree]

18 teams, snake draft for two rounds, random after that. Caps heavily heavily favoured to come out of the East.

I'd stay way away from the Caps. If you take Ovi, Backstrom, Kuz, and likely Holtby are gone by 36. I don't think you'll be able to establish a majority of Caps point producers should they get to the SCF. Sure you might, but how certain are you? Then the rest of your picks ought to be from the West. 2 teams, 3 at most. To me, the Kings, Sharks, Blues, Hawks, and Ducks are all legit contenders to come out of the West. I'd give a better shot to the Wild, Preds, and Stars than any of the Lightning, Panthers, Flyers, Wings, or Bruins. So picking your two from the West is going to be a crapshoot where you have to be perfect to win (get a solid croup of Caps, select 2nd tier players from the two western conference finals teams (EG Hossa, Rakell, Silfv, Seabrook, Lindholm)

I think the better play is to take 4-5 Penguins. I'd expect you could much more easily monopolize the Pens than the Caps (partly because both Malkin and Fleury are out). I'd be looking at Crosby first, Letang second, Kesse/Hornyl third/fourth. I think you could get those guys at those picks. Murray at some point, Fleury towards the end of the draft. Then pick 1-2 teams from out West. If you've got 5-6 of the top 7-8 Pens and they make it to the SCF, you'd only need 4-5 guys from Western teams that make it to the 2nd round to have a legit shot at winning. (People who picked the Caps early in the draft would be screwed - the Pens would have to go through the Caps in round 2).

Get a cheap monopoly with a legit shot - that's the Pens this year imo.

[Instant Karma]

You can't base what they are capable of doing this year based on their history. They are an improved team this year and after bringing in guys like like Justin Williams and TJ Oshie and even Kuznetsov taking the next step this season, they are a different, more balanced team. I like them to go deep into the playoffs.

I don't see too many teams in the East giving them much difficulties. The Rangers will be tough again this year, but the only other team that MAY have given them a run has now been hit hard with injuries (Lightning). The Penguins need Fleury back to give teams fits as well. I dont trust Murray to carry them in the playoffs.

I would just add Trotz to this, as I believe he's a bigger factor to their recent success than Wiiliams, Oshie, Kuz, or anyone.

- - - Updated - - -

18 teams, snake draft for two rounds, random after that. Caps heavily heavily favoured to come out of the East.

I'd stay way away from the Caps. If you take Ovi, Backstrom, Kuz, and likely Holtby are gone by 36. I don't think you'll be able to establish a majority of Caps point producers should they get to the SCF. Sure you might, but how certain are you? Then the rest of your picks ought to be from the West. 2 teams, 3 at most. To me, the Kings, Sharks, Blues, Hawks, and Ducks are all legit contenders to come out of the West. I'd give a better shot to the Wild, Preds, and Stars than any of the Lightning, Panthers, Flyers, Wings, or Bruins. So picking your two from the West is going to be a crapshoot where you have to be perfect to win (get a solid croup of Caps, select 2nd tier players from the two western conference finals teams (EG Hossa, Rakell, Silfv, Seabrook, Lindholm)

I think the better play is to take 4-5 Penguins. I'd expect you could much more easily monopolize the Pens than the Caps (partly because both Malkin and Fleury are out). I'd be looking at Crosby first, Letang second, Kesse/Hornyl third/fourth. I think you could get those guys at those picks. Murray at some point, Fleury towards the end of the draft. Then pick 1-2 teams from out West. If you've got 5-6 of the top 7-8 Pens and they make it to the SCF, you'd only need 4-5 guys from Western teams that make it to the 2nd round to have a legit shot at winning. (People who picked the Caps early in the draft would be screwed - the Pens would have to go through the Caps in round 2).

Get a cheap monopoly with a legit shot - that's the Pens this year imo.

Call me crazy, but I believe that your username may reveal some bias...

[everfeb]

Thanks for all the replies and insight. A few concerns about the Caps. Kuz has died, 2 pts in last 9 Backstom missed last 3 but he did skate and do extra work yesterday so he'll probably be OK....see tonight vs Pens I guess. I haven't checked beyond the Caps but I'm guessing most player's ppg generally go down in playoffs? Last year in the playoffs Chimera's ppg were up quite a bit compared to reg season, Kuz, Beagle and Alzner were up a touch. All others were down...Ovi -36%, Backs -40%, Carlson -36%, Oshie (SL) -57%, Johanson -49%. Is this something to be concerned about or just over thinking?
Thanks again for taking the time.

[PensInThree]

Call me crazy, but I believe that your username may reveal some bias...

Noted. However, the stay away from Caps strategy I think is sound. And most people are likely going to agree that the Pens have the next best chance of coming out of the East. That's supported by their play since the Sullivan signing, including advanced stats.

[Instant Karma]

Noted. However, the stay away from Caps strategy I think is sound. And most people are likely going to agree that the Pens have the next best chance of coming out of the East. That's supported by their play since the Sullivan signing, including advanced stats.

Hell, I know you're aware of it. lol I just wanted to make sure that the OP took note of it.

In any case, I don't think the Pens are pushovers, but that's still a gutsy call with your goalie currently on the shelf with no timetable for return.

Is that covered under the advanced stats?

[PensInThree]

Definitely not. Murray channeling Ward circa 2006 - filed under fanoptimism?

[everfeb]

The match ups as of last night are Pens vs NYR and Caps vs Philly. Assuming Pens and Caps get through 1st round it is Pens vs Caps 2nd round. If we load up on 1 team and they go out in 2nd round we are finished. On the other hand if we take Caps and Pens we risk not having enough quality players from the advancing team to do much. And I do think it SHOULD be Caps and Pens favoured in the East. I like how Pens have been playing without Malkin (they seem much grittier-no?) but when is Fleury coming back..Murray doing well so far is not the same as playing with playoff pressure. So goalie worries me..no Malkin doesn't.

Picking one team from the west (crapshoot) and one from the east is quite risky...Both COULD be out in first round especially in the West. Picking from the 2 favourites in the east or west seems to me to be a way to get at least one advancing team but the players on the advancing team other than first pick would be pretty much all 2nd level and lower and the big guns from each team in the playoffs go fast (we are drafting 198 players including goalies). Loading up on one team is the riskiest-one and done. Several years ago we loaded up on NYR-got 8 points, dead last as they went out in first round. Last year we had almost all Ducks BUT the franchises involved in the draft steered clear of them for some reason so we were able to get a lot of good 2nd tier guys who really produced + Anderson so got 2nd and a nice wack of cash. I think this strategy is called go big or go home lol. Just randomly picking the highest scorers available regardless of which team they are on doesn't work.

Playoff pools are a big crapshoot no matter what strategy you try to employ I guess. Have until Friday at 6 (2 days before the season ends) to decide what to do and then see how the draft unfolds. I'm guessing Ovie and Crosby are the first 2 to go.

Hope this thread continues...been very informative and helpful so far with the variety and diversity of thoughts and opinions. And yes I did notice the "Pens in Three." handle lol.

Thanks a lot guys. WAY more posts than I ever hoped for.

[Zorro]

So how did your team end up looking?? Who did you draft and where??

[williamjohn01]

I would pick Drew Doughty first for overall in playoff pool draft.