Draft strategy help (rep)

[ddp]

Hey Guys,

Looking to improve my draft prep. I'm always behind in terms of prospects and imports etc.
I also have a difficult time preparing my rank list on fantrax. I've dragged everyone over that I'm interested in but its complicated.
Currently I have MOST listed in order of position. For example at the top of the list which is NOT meaning that I will draft this position first but I have closers bunched together, then Catchers and then SS.....the positions I need most. Starting pitching is always huge and will be probably 6 of my top 9 picks.

So I have them bunched together. I normally like to draft according to avg draft position or percentage owned....just select the highest and so on.

My questions:

1 - is there a better way to do my rank list?
2 - do you have some favorite ways to go about this? I find it difficult if I make a list on excell to keep up to cross guys out after they've been selected.
3 - favorite sites to help prepare?
4 - good sites for breakouts/surpises/STUD prospects?


any opinions and help would be appreciated.
thanks

[Axeman33]

If there's one piece of advice I can give you that I have learned over the years, don't listen to anthing the "experts" on Yahoo tell you. Guys like Brad Evans and Brandon Funston are not very good prognasticators.

I really like rotochamps and fantasypro's websites for advice and rankings. For prospects, mlb.com is a solid choice to find information on prospects. They do up a huge list every year.

[2014olympicgold]

I’m in a keeper league, so after keepers are set, I print out the top 100 available players in an excel spreadsheet. Then I mark out every 10 players (10 team league), and note what “round” has excessive positions in them. So round 1 could have Kinsler available for me to draft, but in round 4 there’s 5 2B available. So I’ll leave Kinsler and get an OF so to speak.

I do that every yr in baseball, and turned to hockey to doing the same. I’ll look for where forwards, D, and goalies are going. It helps on not reaching for a position you need when you know there will be abundance a few rounds later.

[ddp]

Take for example, how do you decide amongst all the guys that are similar? Like Andrus to Crawford...some guys much lower too like Hechavarria or cabrera....

7 Elvis Andrus TEX SS 560 68 5 52 25 0.264 0.318 0.345 0.663 43 78 $7.67AL|NL
8 Jean Segura ARI 2B 525 59 6 49 25 0.263 0.292 0.341 0.633 18 80 $5.27AL|NL
9 Corey Seager LAD SS 520 66 16 64 4 0.271 0.320 0.429 0.749 35 120 $4.64AL|NL
10 Alexei Ramirez SD SS 535 62 9 56 18 0.260 0.296 0.368 0.664 26 64 $4.35AL|NL
11 Alcides Escobar KAN SS 582 63 3 51 21 0.266 0.299 0.332 0.631 24 75 $2.86AL|NL
12 Ketel Marte SEA SS 522 62 4 48 21 0.266 0.311 0.351 0.662 34 93 $2.50AL|NL
13 Marcus Semien OAK SS 520 67 14 61 10 0.248 0.312 0.385 0.697 47 128 $2.30AL|NL
14 Brandon Crawford SF SS 493 67 15 62 5 0.252 0.319 0.422 0.741 44 116 $0.84AL|NL

15 Starlin Castro NYY 2B 530 62 11 59 5 0.270 0.306 0.385 0.691 25 94 $-0.11AL|NL
16 Erick Aybar ATL SS 544 61 4 51 13 0.274 0.310 0.355 0.665 26 61 $-0.55AL|NL
17 Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B 489 61 14 58 6 0.252 0.307 0.393 0.700 36 124 $-1.49AL|NL
18 Brad Miller TB SS 465 61 11 53 11 0.245 0.317 0.376 0.693 47 106 $-2.40AL|NL
19 Jung-ho Kang PIT 2B 375 55 13 52 4 0.275 0.333 0.440 0.773 25 89 $-2.44AL|NL
20 Jose Reyes COL SS 360 46 6 39 17 0.281 0.322 0.389 0.711 22 44 $-2.81AL|NL
21 Jonathan Villar MIL SS 360 46 6 34 29 0.231 0.294 0.328 0.622 31 115 $-3.02AL|NL
22 Jose Iglesias DET SS 434 52 2 41 10 0.297 0.340 0.359 0.699 24 50 $-4.85AL|NL
23 Freddy Galvis PHI SS 552 59 9 54 8 0.248 0.287 0.347 0.634 30 106 $-5.84AL|NL
24 Didi Gregorius NYY SS 508 61 9 52 4 0.258 0.318 0.369 0.687 37 83 $-6.25AL|NL
25 Adeiny Hechavarria MIA SS 495 53 4 46 8 0.271 0.307 0.345 0.652 25 82 $-7.60AL|NL
26 Andrelton Simmons LAA SS 525 58 7 50 5 0.259 0.309 0.349 0.658 36 50 $-7.86AL|NL
27 Brock Holt BOS DH 385 49 2 37 9 0.281 0.342 0.364 0.706 35 77 $-10.08AL|NL
28 Cesar Hernandez PHI 2B 398 47 2 35 14 0.264 0.326 0.336 0.662 37 88 $-10.26AL|NL
29 Eduardo Escobar MIN SS 402 51 9 48 1 0.264 0.309 0.423 0.732 26 84 $-10.31AL|NL
30 Asdrubal Cabrera NYM SS 370 48 9 44 5 0.254 0.309 0.400 0.709 28 77 $-10.77AL|NL

[2014olympicgold]

I couldn’t tell you why haha. I looked at the start of the sentence and chose Crawford and Hech. Then I saw it’s a Cap league and it’s an even bigger gap to me between the two.

For me with baseball, I can’t interpret the advanced stats the same way as hockey players. So I do something simple, I look at how a player progressed month to month (shows they’re getting better), and how they dealt with small injuries. If a player had a bad yr with lingering injuries, I’ll keep them on my radar for this yr. Yan Gomes at catcher is an example. He had his 2015 season cut short because of injuries, but his 2014 numbers were solid for a catcher (21HR, 74RBIs, 278avg). I’ll prolly look at him at the draft as a steal.

The next thing I look at was past players I had on my fantasy team. I dropped Andrus for Crawford, and he did amazingly until I brought Correa up, and I had to cut Crawford loose eventually. Crawford did slow down in the 2^nd half of the yr, yet still lead the league in RBIs for SS. Crawford’s Rank vs Andrus’s Rank may be close from last yr, but that’s because Andrus was stealing bases more. Crawford beats Andrus in nearly every other cat. That’s why I would take Crawford over Andrus.

Baseball past maybe your first 10 picks are mostly flyers. I had like 2-3 players at the end of the yr (plus my 7 keepers) that I drafted. And they were Arrieta, Gordon, and McCann. You either steal great guys at the draft (top 10 pick usually), or you drop them for a good FA.

- - - Updated - - -

For what it’s worth, Starlin Castro is having a great Spring Training. He may be a guy people should target late. He’s hitting like 420

[ddp]

Great post.
I doubt Castro will last late then if he's hot as stink now. But yeah I was thinking about him earlier.
I saw Crawford's numbers as everything better than andrus except SB's...and think to myself Crawford all the way. I couldn't understand why the owner who had Correau was still hanging onto 3 other SS...Andrus being one of them. He was borderline waiver material. Herchavaia is the other guy he had on his bench...only 5 spots.


Maybe if this thread is getting dried up on the original topic I should throw in more. Like Which Catchers in order and which SS in order you would take.

Weiters, Vogt, Swihart,Hundley,Gomes,Grandal,Norris,Montero,Jaso, Realmuto,Mesoraco,Castillo,Molina,Ramos

Those are the projected stats rank in fantrax....Not how I think I would take them.

I really like Gomes, Realmuto and Meseroco....and maybe even Castillo.