Tyler Johnson underrated/overrated?

[BradyJets]

Do you feel Tyler Johnson is underrated? Maybe last year he was overrated when he was rated 18th in the Dobber keeper league rankings (points only)? But now is way way down the list at 80, so maybe now underrated?

I'm likely acquiring him once the deal is accepted by the other GM, and I'm pretty sure I paid a value that's probably equal to a player in the top 30 of our league, which includes FOW.

Even his rookie year he had 50 points and now he's on pace for 40 in a huge down year.

Is he a top 20 player in points only, or is he just something around a top 80. My league has FOW, so that would throw off valuation...but let's stick to points-only.

Thanks.

[lucafen4]

I need to buddy up on this thread as an owner as I'm struggling with whether to keep or move him... I've thought about moving him for Parayko, but wonder if I'd be selling a bit low. I'm confident this is like you said a massive down year for him, but perhaps 74pt was a bit high? For him as well... Maybe a consistent 65-72 guy? It's hard to say with two completely different seasons under his belt... Next 30 games could be more telling

[BradyJets]

I totally understand. Buddy up! I'm about to acquire him for what's consistent value for what guys like Hall, Toews, MacK have gone for in the past year or so. With FOW, his value is equivalent, unless he continues to crap the bed.
If I treat him as on the higher end of 55-65+ guy, I think his value is pretty well there.

[newfcollins]

He's having an off year. I think his injuries have slowed him down. Next year I expect him to be much better.

[Pengwin7]

I'd call TJ a 65pt guy.
He's the real-deal at that number, IMO.

I'm not sure I'd be paying Toews/Hall like price for him.
He should be valued low in most league simply by being behind Stamkos on the depth chart.

One has to remember not to pay TOO high for a guy, because he also may have to sell him at some point.
He's sort of like Joe Pavelski... a great player to own... but a tough player to trade-away for fair value.

[NoChance]

Funny that I ran into this thread by accident as I was researching/looking into trading FOR Johnson this morning.

My concern with Johnson is the major dip in G60 at 5v5 this year (0.57 compared to 1.11 last season). While last season's goal production was most likely inflated by some luck (PDO of 103.59 and a PSh% of 11.25) and Johnson has been somewhat unlucky so far this season (Psh% of 6.49), I am not sure that you can just say bad luck is the culprit and split the difference as a day-forward projection.

How much of a factor has been his lingering undisclosed injury or injuries? If you are a gambling man then I think you trade for Johnson now hoping that the injury is behind him and he bounces back to ~ 80% of last year's production pace. I think I may wait it out and evaluate him further after additional healthy performances.

[lucafen4]

If I'm looking to move Johnson, am I selling low targeting Parayko? Realize I'm taking a risk moving him for a D with 1/2 a season under his belt - and one that hasn't really blown anyone away offensively at any level. I'm not getting any real value offers for him elsewhere which is the frustrating part. Only looking to move him as he's #5 on my C depth chart.

[BradyJets]

If I'm looking to move Johnson, am I selling low targeting Parayko? Realize I'm taking a risk moving him for a D with 1/2 a season under his belt - and one that hasn't really blown anyone away offensively at any level. I'm not getting any real value offers for him elsewhere which is the frustrating part. Only looking to move him as he's #5 on my C depth chart.

I'd say you're definitely selling low targeting Parayko, being that he's the "#3" dman on the Blues. If you really want to move TJ and aren't getting offers, I'd package him with someone else for an upgrade. Why trade a possible keeper for a non-keeper?

Maybe trade Krejci instead? He may have some more "name" value when you packaged him up with someone. I guess this all depends on where you are in the standings. If you're not contending, try to send TJ or Krejci and Stempniak to a contender maybe...just one idea, though.

[roenick27]

Maybe he is the perfect example of someone being BOTH underrated and overrated? I agree with Pengwin as saying TJ is somewhere in the 65ish range. Now two factors come to my attention.
1) With Stammer likely gone, he may become "the guy" (along with Kuch). Does he excel or is it too much pressure (always seeing top shutdown lines etc). My personal belief is he will excel mostly.
2) Injuries. He seems to be a bit "band aid-ish" Likely he has a higher upside, but injuries I think derail that some years.

He's hard to peg. I think he can easily be a 70 + point guy most years when healthy, but I get scared by the injury risk so I would slide him down a bit. Likely bank on 50-55 points most years (missing some games/playing through injuries) but will average 60-65 over the next 5 years with one or two 70-75 years

[Big Ev]

He was definitely overrated last year. What he and that line were doing was completely unsustainable. The lightning were just on a massive hot streak. I don't like banking on a small guy like him because they can get wrecked at any moment. I think he's a 55-60 point guy.

[Pengwin7]

Back to Johnson... do we know what his "undisclosed" "upper body" injury even was?
I'm googling and can't find anything.

[newfcollins]

Back to Johnson... do we know what his "undisclosed" "upper body" injury even was?
I'm googling and can't find anything.

Something to do with his hand/arm/elbow, wasn't it? I kind of remember him not being able to take faceoffs or shoot properly during the finals.

[lucafen4]

I'd say you're definitely selling low targeting Parayko, being that he's the "#3" dman on the Blues. If you really want to move TJ and aren't getting offers, I'd package him with someone else for an upgrade. Why trade a possible keeper for a non-keeper?

Maybe trade Krejci instead? He may have some more "name" value when you packaged him up with someone. I guess this all depends on where you are in the standings. If you're not contending, try to send TJ or Krejci and Stempniak to a contender maybe...just one idea, though.

Our league is split in 2 divisions, I'm 3rd and safely in a playoff spot, 9-8, trending to 10-8. I've had some unlucky H2H matchups - 4 weeks I've had 2nd most points, only to lose to the team scoring the most. I'm 2/12 in points for and 8/12 in points against, unlike real life I can't do anything about that. Can't finish with best regular season record, but I can take down the playoffs, closing the gap weekly in points for. So would prefer not to take too much out of my line-up unless I'm adding. Parayko would be a good upgrade on my last D and he's Prospect eligible for next season, so can keep him one more year and watch his development.

With Schwartz coming off IR, I didn't feel like I would be losing anything by taking out TJ, almost feels like TJ for Parayko & Schwartz

[NoChance]

I'm a fan of Parayko and I wouldn't be concerned about his spot on the Blues depth chart. In fact, being "#3" arguably allows STL to manage his situations and zone starts more effectively as they do not need to rely on him as they would a top pairing dman. To date this season, only Shattenkirk has a higher relative offensive zone start percentage than Parayko (excludes players with less than 10 games played) on the Blues. Being down the depth chart also hasn't hurt his power-play opportunities too much as he's averaged 1.58 min/game. It's my opinion that Parayko is in a good spot for growth and has a bright future.

All that said, I do think dealing Johnson straight up for him is overpaying. While your team might improve by the trade, I think that there must be a trade out there that improves your team to a greater degree. If you can't find a better deal, as you mentioned, then I'd recommend holding firm. The Parayko deal will still be there as an option at a later date and, as you said, you are safely in a playoff spot.

[Atomic Wedgy]

If I'm looking to move Johnson, am I selling low targeting Parayko? Realize I'm taking a risk moving him for a D with 1/2 a season under his belt - and one that hasn't really blown anyone away offensively at any level. I'm not getting any real value offers for him elsewhere which is the frustrating part. Only looking to move him as he's #5 on my C depth chart.

Dont sell TJ now. That is bad business.