Hall vs. Gaudreau Cage Match - discuss here!

[RizzeeDizzee]

http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...s-taylor-hall/

This column was a lot of fun to write, especially since I felt it had the perfect result - a conclusion that was well supported by the data but which wasn't completely obvious in hindsight.

Give it a read and let us know your thoughts. Who wins in your mind, and why? Are we seeing pretty much the best from Gaudreau already? Will McDavid's arrival make it easier or perhaps harder for Hall to return to his top production from the past?

[RizzeeDizzee]

Wow - nada? Color me surprised. I guess I'll take that to mean the Cage Match speaks for itself and reached the right conclusion(s).

[havanablast21]

Yup! Hall > Gaudreal (by a full tier).

You're analysis/assessment was spot on IMO.

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

I think the data makes the right conclusion here. Look at those IPP numbers for Hall... 98%! Damn!

The biggest thing that could bring a boost to Gaudreau would be the Flames PP improving as a whole. They are dead last in the league this season at 14.5%, and middle of the pack last year at 18.8%. Last year that number was buoyed by Hudler's career year.... This year no luck there. So much of the PP runs through Giordano, so a low PP% coupled with not being the main focus on an already bad unit leads to low PPP.

Gaudreau has the skillset to be a 30 PPP player in the future. Kane, Backstrom, Giroux, Voracek.... Gaudreau is a similar player. The Flames lack a big shooter on their PP (outside of Gio). Maybe Bennett can be that guy, but until they find that guy the PP will suffer.

I really think Gaudreau has an 85-90 point season in him, due in large part to those PP woes. That is the only point of data from your article I'm leery of. A 5x4 IPP of 62% is low for an "elite" player. So why assume he will remain at that level? Of course I'm making an assumption that that number will go up and I could be wrong. But a player like Gaudreau, I feel it's safe to assume a higher IPP in the future.

As for Hall, the unknown factors is McDavid. Hall has always been the catalyst on the Oilers PP, hence the high 5x4 IPPs. With McD in town, things are bound to change. The PP will run through him undoubtedly, and with Hall not getting ES time with McD, Hall's minutes (mentioned in your article) and points could drop a bit. Then again, maybe Hall can move to the Ovechkin/Stamkos spot and start banging home one-timers on the PP in bunches.

In the end, your article makes the smart choice between the two. Of course there are always variables that make an outlook murky which is I'm sure why you typically avoid predictions and stick to the numbers available. This was a great matchup, as I really don't see much separation between these two.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I think the data makes the right conclusion here. Look at those IPP numbers for Hall... 98%! Damn!

The biggest thing that could bring a boost to Gaudreau would be the Flames PP improving as a whole. They are dead last in the league this season at 14.5%, and middle of the pack last year at 18.8%. Last year that number was buoyed by Hudler's career year.... This year no luck there. So much of the PP runs through Giordano, so a low PP% coupled with not being the main focus on an already bad unit leads to low PPP.

Gaudreau has the skillset to be a 30 PPP player in the future. Kane, Backstrom, Giroux, Voracek.... Gaudreau is a similar player. The Flames lack a big shooter on their PP (outside of Gio). Maybe Bennett can be that guy, but until they find that guy the PP will suffer.

I really think Gaudreau has an 85-90 point season in him, due in large part to those PP woes. That is the only point of data from your article I'm leery of. A 5x4 IPP of 62% is low for an "elite" player. So why assume he will remain at that level? Of course I'm making an assumption that that number will go up and I could be wrong. But a player like Gaudreau, I feel it's safe to assume a higher IPP in the future.

As for Hall, the unknown factors is McDavid. Hall has always been the catalyst on the Oilers PP, hence the high 5x4 IPPs. With McD in town, things are bound to change. The PP will run through him undoubtedly, and with Hall not getting ES time with McD, Hall's minutes (mentioned in your article) and points could drop a bit. Then again, maybe Hall can move to the Ovechkin/Stamkos spot and start banging home one-timers on the PP in bunches.

In the end, your article makes the smart choice between the two. Of course there are always variables that make an outlook murky which is I'm sure why you typically avoid predictions and stick to the numbers available. This was a great matchup, as I really don't see much separation between these two.

Outstanding points top to bottom. I do feel though, that Gaudreau should be able to "prop up" the Calgary PP a bit more if he was truly elite. Also, wingers who get 85-90 points in today's NHL tend to fall into two camps - ones who have talent plus a great centerman (Ovi) or ones who can carry a team on their shoulders (Kane). Of these two, I think Hall is more likely to fit one or both bills - more so than Gaudreau.

[Ianclark5525]

I do think hall is worth gaudreau+ in any format. Even though both are top end talents. Good read

[RizzeeDizzee]

I do think hall is worth gaudreau+ in any format. Even though both are top end talents. Good read

Thanks Ian - I think that pretty does sum it up.

[yougo]

Outstanding points top to bottom. I do feel though, that Gaudreau should be able to "prop up" the Calgary PP a bit more if he was truly elite. Also, wingers who get 85-90 points in today's NHL tend to fall into two camps - ones who have talent plus a great centerman (Ovi) or ones who can carry a team on their shoulders (Kane). Of these two, I think Hall is more likely to fit one or both bills - more so than Gaudreau.

Hmmmmmmm Ovi kinda fits those two camps though IMO.

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

Have you considered incorporating home/away splits into your articles? Huge difference for Gaudreau, he's over a PPG at home where the coach can put him in favorable positions, but well under on the road when when the opposition can line match.

It's a fair point about him maybe carrying the Flames PP a little better if he is "elite", but at the same time as you mention in your article he's not a big shooter. He's on pace for around 300 shots which is actually pretty good, but when it comes to the PP his strength is distributing from the half wall. Maybe he needs to take charge with more of a shooting role, but I don't think that's his strength in that situation. A true goal scorer would go a long ways to improving that unit as a whole. Maybe Monahan can be that guy, but I think he's more of a goal line net front guy.

With a bigger PP presence, Gaudreau could make a jump into Art Ross contention and I really believe that. The same could be said for Hall as well.... These guys are elite ES scorers.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Hmmmmmmm Ovi kinda fits those two camps though IMO.

Good point - I was trying to emphasize that he's made all the better by having a quality center next to him, unlike Kane, who basically is making a lot of his own magic.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Have you considered incorporating home/away splits into your articles? Huge difference for Gaudreau, he's over a PPG at home where the coach can put him in favorable positions, but well under on the road when when the opposition can line match.

It's a fair point about him maybe carrying the Flames PP a little better if he is "elite", but at the same time as you mention in your article he's not a big shooter. He's on pace for around 300 shots which is actually pretty good, but when it comes to the PP his strength is distributing from the half wall. Maybe he needs to take charge with more of a shooting role, but I don't think that's his strength in that situation. A true goal scorer would go a long ways to improving that unit as a whole. Maybe Monahan can be that guy, but I think he's more of a goal line net front guy.

With a bigger PP presence, Gaudreau could make a jump into Art Ross contention and I really believe that. The same could be said for Hall as well.... These guys are elite ES scorers.

Honestly, Cage Match often could be double the number of words it is now and still not be bloated. But as it is Dobber would prefer it be shorter (more like 1500 words instead of the normal 2000) and I already put a lot of hours into it. There would be a value for home and away splits, especially for DFH and leagues with daily starts. But like other things I'd include in a perfect world (QoC, P/60) there's simply not enough room for it without taking out stuff that I think are better barometers and, more importantly, connect with a wider range of potential readers.