Tough one.
If your league counted hits, I'd say yes but since you don't, and shots are only worth 0.1, I think I'd keep Seguin here. I do think Ovechkin scores more goals than Seguin but I dont think it will be that far apart.
Not to mention, Seguin is six years younger than Oveckin. I am not saying OV is old and is in decline, but those six years are big when we look forward.