Mack vs Kucherov

[Smartin4]

I am in 2nd place in the keep 6 league in my signature, and going for the win this year. While I have upgraded through a few lopsided trades this year, the guy in 1st has been sacrificing picks in trades and is a strong bet to stay ahead of me and roll over anyone in playoffs with a well-built team.

I have been considering a few different big moves. The boldest is shopping MacKinnon to the Kucherov owner. This manager is near the bottom, despite having guys like Patty Kane and McDavid. I think that MacKinnon, as a big name and a young guy, carries a ton of value. He isn't very active, and not near as engaged in the fantasy scene.

My hunch says that Kucherov's current value and future ceiling are at the same level as Mack's, and so I would be able to replace Mack AND also acquire other helpful pieces (ex. Hornqvist).

I'll admit that this is the first keeper league I've been in, and this is just the 2nd year of it. So, yeah, I'm a noob and I won't be rattled if your opinion is that my idea is dumb. But, I do also follow the NHL and fantasy quite closely (through this awesome site and anything else I can get a chance to read!).

To try and get more feedback and make lives easier, I've added a poll! Any thoughts would be hugely appreciated, thanks a ton!

[Dobber]

I voted that Kucherov is better now and in the future. However, MacKinnon is more of a certainty, and his name probably carries more weight in trade talks. The fact that you could get Kucherov and more for MacKinnon would be a real coup

[hipcheck]

Kucherov 100% for me

I could get long winded about who is better, but this is a job for frozen pool. If you looked at both player profile pages (to me ) it is easy to see who should be better for ROS, in fact it is a huge example of trending in opposite directions.

Take a look at the 1st, 2nd, 3rd Quarter breakdowns.

MacK 1.05, 0.62, 0.58 points per game
Kucherov 0.59, 0.94, 1.22 points per game

You decide on how you value them long term. I see a 0.77 point per game player and a 0.9 point per game player. I dropped one as a keeper after two seasons and replaced with the other one! I also will not go on again about my choice of not wanting to own any Col players as long as Roy is coaching (wild card)

Kudos to Dobber and his gang for the player profile pages, that is a ton of info at your finger tips! Huge for weekly/daily research.

Steve

[havanablast21]

I too voted kucherov now and to infinity and beyond. Less of a slight toward Mack, but I'm once again extremely impressed about this kids trajectory this year. I'm a believer.

[RizzeeDizzee]

What makes it difficult is they play in very difficult circumstances, with Kucherov being leaned upon more to create offense on a team with an arguably less talented (from top to bottom) top six than Colorado. Basically, you have to ask yourself whether MacKinnon would do more if he was leaned upon more heavily and if Kucherov could be adversely affected if (when?) Tampa gets more talented players to round out the top 6.

As is normal in fantasy hockey, you have to go with the bird in the hand and that's Kucherov. Also, MacKinnon's value is being somewhat propped up even now by the fact that he was a former #1 pick. But in a couple of years, that luster will fade. Give me Kucherov ROS and future here.

[JAMZ]

Gotta agree with the panel here. I was leaning Kucherov also, just based on his early progression compared to MacK.

Also going to suggest that if you look logically at your poll, there should only be four options - option 3 is the same as 5 and option 2 is the same as option 6.

[Pengwin7]

Kucherov, for me, for next 3-4 years.
I think MacKinnon is the better overall NHL player... but for pure fantasy stats... I love young wingers much better.
I still expect COL to keep trying MacKinnon at NHL C1 or C2 - which will temper his offense as he plays a two-way game.

Kuch can just go out there and fly and the TB center (whether it's Stammer or TJ or Filpp) can safe-guard the line.

I do believe, at some point (4+ years), MacKinnon will become a very, very fine overall center - who can score 75+pts AND play two-way C1.
And I do believe, at some point, Kucherov will get an enormous contract that may cripple the team's ability to surround him with a high-quality center.
[Sort of what we saw with Kovalchuk in NJ... and soon possibly Tarasenko in STL...]
Stammer is as good as gone, IMO.
If/when TJ goes or Filpp goes... can Kucherov still generate offense with inferior centers? IDK.

My expectations:
2016: Kucherov by a good amount
2017: Kucherov by a bit
2018: Kucherov by a bit
2019: About equal
2020: MacKinnon... (here forward)

[Hoopo]

I do believe, at some point, Kucherov will get an enormous contract that may cripple the team's ability to surround him with a high-quality center...

2016: Kucherov by a good amount
2017: Kucherov by a bit
2018: Kucherov by a bit
2019: About equal
2020: MacKinnon... (here forward)

I'd agree with most of what you wrote until this part . Id be very surprised if Kucherov's contract is much more than $7-8mil with a good amount of term on it. in 4 - 5 years, thats probably looking pretty good rather than crippling a team. Unless they also have Stamkos signed for $10mil....

[joe jones]

I agree Kucherov for this year and future, and you should be able to get a Kucherov+ from this owner for mack, given his lack of attention to things.

[duducks]

I have Kucherov now, but MacKinnon exceeding him in the future.

TB isn't a team that I expect to be a cap ceiling team (Florida market), but the currently are. They cannot afford to resign Stamkos. Bishop is earning 5.5m now, and has played himself into a raise. The market for trading young goalies doesnt seem to be there, but there are always teams looking for a current solution in net. Bishop is likely traded over the next calendar year (or walks), as he's a UFA after next season, and former 1st round pick Vasilevskiy has been kept on the NHL roster to gain NHL experience to transition from Bishop to him.

Namestnikov and Marchessault are in for small RFA raises this summer, but Kucherov is in for a large one (0.8m up to 5.5m?)
Hedman is a UFA in 2 summers. To me, with the departure of Stamkos, means he is guaranteed a large extension this summer, so that Yzerman doesn't lose his job (can't let Stamkos, Bishop and Hedman all walk).

This is a team that has peaked, and im willing to accept that this is Kucherov's peak as well.

Colorado on the other hand, has several top end players/prospects who I wouldn't consider at their peak yet. They are not in cap trouble, they already have most their big names locked up to long term deals, and are expected to improve annually for some time.

Id expect MacKinnon to surpass Kucherov in 2 years.

[hipcheck]

"Colorado on the other hand, has several top end players/prospects who I wouldn't consider at their peak yet"

Please elaborate on this? Besides MacK who has not peaked yet. MacK has 30G 40A potential, but I do not see him @ 80P

As far as his other possible linemates here is their Career best years vs this year.

Landeskog 2013-2014 65 in 81= 0.80 PPG shot at his then career best shooting percentage of 0.11%
2015-2016 36 in 49= 0.73 PPG currently shooting a career best 0.12%

Duchene 2013-2014 70 in 71= 0.98 PPG shot @ his career average of 0.10%
2015-2016 42 in 53=0.79 PPG shooting a crazy 0.15%

They both peaked in the same year. A year that saw this team go from last to first and buck every known stat metric for team success. I would say that is their peak. It is doubtful that both players ever get the bounces that fell into place that year ever again. In addition they are both performing at an all time high this year as far as SH% goes and both already have as many PPP this year as they did during their peak year in 2013-2014. If that was not their best year this one should be.

Do you see either of these players being a point per game player? I would say Tyson Barrie has not reached his peak, but these two dudes are not scoring 85-90 points in a season!

I don't see Tampa as a team that has peaked. I would say that the AVS are way past their peak (which came via mind numbing luck in 2013-2014)

[duducks]

Id call that 2013 season a hot streak, not a peak - it wasn't the end of their win-now window (if that was even open). I see Colorado as a team that can add parts as needed ($10m cap space, young stars signed longterm), while TB is a team that is about to lose pieces and has its Win-Now window end after this season, and after the win-now window closes id expect their ideal salary to fall well below the cap.

Because of where TB is in the standings, they wont be able to make the smart small-market asset management type moves that could extend the window. Stamkos' rights in the off season are worth less than Stamkos before the playoffs. Can place the blame anywhere you'd like on Drouin, but its the GMs job to get max value, and that wont happen now.

DeAngelo is going to be an exciting addition to their PP (maybe better than Barrie). That's the one bright spot in the future that suggests Kucherov's situation could improve. Theres more that suggest it wont.

So I total that up as Kucherov playing near his ceiling on a team that will weaken, vs MacKinnon who has room to grow personally, on a team that should only get better.

edit:
I really like both Duchene and Landeskog as total players, but I have MacKinnon with a 20 points higher ceiling on him than those guys.

[bullfighter]

I second duducks on this way of thinking....landeskog and Duchene providing the support needed to get to a higher long term ceiling. Kuch may not have the right supporting cast.

[Smartin4]

This has been an awesome thread! Thanks a ton for the help, votes, and opinions everyone! It echoed a lot of thoughts I'd already had, expanded on many, and also brought up new ones.

I've settled that I'm willing to let Mack go for Kuch, especially because I want to win this year, as having guys like Ovie, Karlsson, Bishop, Sedin... my time is now. I think the best way of putting it is that Mack will quite possible be a better fantasy asset in the future, but at the very least in the window of the next couple years, Kuch is as good or better. Plus, I am able to boost my depth players and draft picks because of Mack's very high perceived value. I sent the manager a trade:

Mack, Zucc, Bobo, and a 13th rounder
for
Kuch, Horny, Andersen, and an 8th round pick (ie this is the 2nd round of re-drafted players, as we keep 6)
For an idea of the players being picked in the 8th, this year I got D Sedin with the first pick of the 8th, and I also had the last pick of the round and got Monahan.

I was counter-offered with:
Mack, Zucc, Bobo, and a 17th rounder
for
Kuch, Horny, Andersen, and an 10th round pick
(my 10th rounder this year was Schwartz)

Should I try to get a 9th out of him? Or take this offer and run?! Realistically with Bobo being hurt, and Horny and the Pens turning it around...

Thanks again for the advice and awesome hockey talk guys!

[forumname]

If your H2H playoffs end a week early, keep in mind that Tampa Bay has the single worst schedule, playing only 9 games in 3 weeks, with only one coming on an 'off night'. Just one more thing to consider.