Results 1 to 15 of 15

Thread: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

  1. #1
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Pro

    Default Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    It is my first year playing fantasy hockey and the previous owner of my team was very uninvolved. At this point after offseason trades, draft, free agent pickups, and in-season trades I only have 3 holdovers from the team that he ended last season with (Shatty, EJ, Bishop). I have pretty much committed myself to not competing for a championship for first couple years, so at this point I am just trying to put myself in the best possible situation for keepers. So, on to my question... What do we think about Shea Theodore? He looked fantastic the past 6 games, but now he is back down to the AHL. How long will he be there? Should I be patient and hold on to him now that he is on my roster for $1 and I don't feel super motivated to do everything in my power to compete? I am currently in 7th place out of 12 teams in my league, 6 make playoffs. But the 1st and 2nd place teams are super dominant and even if I make the playoffs I will get bounced pretty promptly.

    Here are some other prospects on waivers right now:
    Dylan Strome
    William Nylander
    Mitch Marner
    Darnell Nurse
    Noah Hanifin
    Derrick Pouliot

    Would any of these names be a better hold than Theodore? I am planning on keeping a lot of guys and only having 3-6 slots open at draft depending on what happens between now and then, so whoever I pick needs to show enough between now and the end of the year for me to legitimize keeping them and using up a draft slot. Our format is a bit different... we do not have term limits for keepers and the price of each player goes up only a small fixed amount each year. If they cost $1-10 this year then next year they go up by $1. If they cost $50-60 then the next year they go up by $6, etc. So whoever I lock in now will be a very cheap fixture on my team for a long time. Any other guys on my team that you would drop to add any of the prospects above?

    Sorry for making this a multi-question post. I appreciate any insight from more experienced owners.

  2. #2
    duducks's Avatar
    duducks is offline
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    1,379
    Rep Power
    21

    Dobber Sports Ace

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    Not all that familiar with the ducks defensive and minor league sitation, I thought Shea Theodore would be back up following the break, but on closer inspection, Simon Depres (1st round pick 2009) just returned from missing 42 games to a concussion. That could hold him down for the season.

    Nylander is all but guaranteed an NHL job next season. He'd be on my roster if I was already looking to next year.
    Weekly H2H
    G / A / P / +- / PowerPlayPoints / Shots / Goalie Wins / GAA / Save%

  3. #3
    Nikerato's Avatar
    Nikerato is offline
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    728
    Rep Power
    19

    Dobber Sports Apprentice

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    An argument could made that all 6 of those guys are better keepers than Theodore (even though I like him).

    I wouldn't keep Rieder or Kassian. Switch those guys with any of Strome, Nylander, or Marner immediately (you should take all 3 of you can!).

    Other possible switches involve Horvat, Namestnikov, Borowiecki, and/or Silfverberg (and of course Theodore).
    12 team keeper
    Points only: G-1, A-1, W-2, SO-3; weekly rosters: 7F, 5D, 2G; keep 20 of 25

    F: Tavares, McDavid, RNH, Stepan, Okposo, Brassard, Stone, Scheifele, Zibanejad, Ehlers, Larkin, Lindholm, Namestnikov
    D: OEL, Hamilton, Mo. Rielly, Parayko, Gostisbehere, Trouba, Theodore
    G: Price, Dubnyk, Lehner, Hellebuyck, Greiss

    2014-15 Champ

  4. #4
    c00per67's Avatar
    c00per67 is offline
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    145
    Location
    Halifax
    Rep Power
    0

    Dobber Sports Prodigy

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    Any of those 6 guys would probably be better than Theodore. Theodore is good, but there are lots of good young D in Anaheim. Even if he's the best of the bunch there's still going to be competition. Nylander and Marner would be my top picks there.
    9 Team Keeper, Start 6F, 3C, 4D, 1G
    F- Panarin, Tavares, Aho, Lindholm, Hertl, Larkin, Miller, Lafreniere, Tatar, Meier
    D- Hedman, Hamilton, Fox, Pulock
    G- Rask

  5. #5
    ElRoca's Avatar
    ElRoca is offline
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Posts
    341
    Location
    Flin-Flon
    Rep Power
    17

    Dobber Sports Blue-Chipper

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    So whoever I lock in now will be a very cheap fixture on my team for a long time. Any other guys on my team that you would drop to add any of the prospects above?
    Well then, you should grab immediately Marner, Nylander and even Strome. I really like Theodore but with Lindholm, Fowler, Vatanen, it's kind of crowded. But for a 1$, I'll keep him as well. But don't sleep on Marner!
    __________________
    C- Stamkos, Draisaitl, Kopitar, Dvorak, Nelson
    C(r)-Rossi, Frost
    W-Wheeler, Laine, Meier, Kessel, Tatar, Duclair, Dadonov
    W(r)-Olofsson, Tippett, Tolvanen, Kupari
    D-Hamilton, Krug, Burns, Andersson, Pulock
    D(r)- Boqvist
    G- Hellebuyck, Hart, Shesterkin

    KEEPER (6 each year + 10 rookies under 23), 11 Teams
    F+D : Points only
    G : 2pts for SO
    3 C, 5 W, 3 D + 2 G

  6. #6
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Pro

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    I dropped Rieder and Theodore and picked up Nylander and Strome this morning. Was split between Strome and Marner and ultimately ended up following Dobber's ranking of them which has Strome higher than Marner. Can you tell me why you like Marner more than Strome? They are both playmakers and don't seem to hit a lot, but I like Strome's size (6'3) over Marner's (5'11).

  7. #7
    audiopile's Avatar
    audiopile is offline
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Posts
    2,709
    Rep Power
    47

    Dobber Sports Veteran

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    I dropped Rieder and Theodore and picked up Nylander and Strome this morning. Was split between Strome and Marner and ultimately ended up following Dobber's ranking of them which has Strome higher than Marner. Can you tell me why you like Marner more than Strome? They are both playmakers and don't seem to hit a lot, but I like Strome's size (6'3) over Marner's (5'11).
    There has been much discussion over who is the better prospect. I think you are safe to choose Strome. I see him having a better supporting cast with Domi and Duclair. The Leafs may have some prospects too but I just don't see how they can slot Marner next to Nylander. That also gives you some diversity in your prospect teams.

    You are looking good for the future regardless.




  8. #8
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Pro

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    Follow up question:
    Would it be excessive to trade Backstrom ($41 to keep next year) and Erik Johnson ($11 to keep) for Ghost ($5 to keep)?
    To give an idea of market value for stars in this league, Ovechkin was most expensive player kept this year at $76.
    Next 5 most expensive guys were Stamkos (kept for $66), Crosby (kept for $65), Tavares (drafted for $62), Giroux (drafted for $55), Malkin (drafted for $50). Compared to those costs, Backstrom for $41, $46, and $51 for the next 3 years doesn't seem like such a bad deal to me. Thoughts?

  9. #9
    duducks's Avatar
    duducks is offline
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    1,379
    Rep Power
    21

    Dobber Sports Ace

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    Follow up question:
    Would it be excessive to trade Backstrom ($41 to keep next year) and Erik Johnson ($11 to keep) for Ghost ($5 to keep)?
    To give an idea of market value for stars in this league, Ovechkin was most expensive player kept this year at $76.
    Next 5 most expensive guys were Stamkos (kept for $66), Crosby (kept for $65), Tavares (drafted for $62), Giroux (drafted for $55), Malkin (drafted for $50). Compared to those costs, Backstrom for $41, $46, and $51 for the next 3 years doesn't seem like such a bad deal to me. Thoughts?
    $300 budget, players get a raise of 10% rounded up. 12 teams.

    I like to still think of these leagues as having 1st round, 2nd round, etc draft, but because of the budget, you can prioritize if you want 2 first round picks and no 4th-8th round picks, which is something I would do every single time. Think about a normal draft league, if someone has Ovechkin and Crosby, regardless of the rest of their team, you'd consider them a contender. Id draft and keep, with that in mind.

    The elites are worth 1/3rd of your budget to me. To make up for spending most your budget on elites, you need savings at the low end.
    the bottom 8 (15-23 on roster) are all worth $1 to me. This league rewards scooping guys off waivers for $1 keepers, and you want to have as many slots (comfortable drops) as possible for these guys.

    I would spend $100-150 on first round fantasy draft guys, and not keep them. Return them to the draft every year (unless something like Kane's explosion happens, then a $40 Kane is worth keeping until hes $75). if you miss the playoffs, you trade these "rentals" for cheap (<$10) keepers.

    Because its a 12 team league, goalies gain a significant boost over their value in a 10 team league. Vasil and Helle are great cheap keepers, but you could use a sure thing next year. I'd spend $40ish on a solid goalie, which would give me $100 remaining to spend on my #3-12 skaters.

    I'd call all of those elites you listed bargains. Theyd be keepers at those prices if your total budget was $200 instead of $300.
    That said, you have SOG, PIM, Hit, Block as categories that Backstrom doesn't contribute to. He's not in that same elite group for me. I'd trade him for the sexiest <$10 player you can find. Ideally Backstrom+ for a cheap Kuznetsov / Kucherov, but might need to settle for a Larkin+.
    Weekly H2H
    G / A / P / +- / PowerPlayPoints / Shots / Goalie Wins / GAA / Save%

  10. #10
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Pro

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    Fantastic analysis and advice, duducks. I appreciate it. Unfortunately Kuch, Kuzya and Larkin are all owned for <$10 by teams that have already packed it in and settled for rebuilding this year.

    The best values available via trade from the top 4 contenders are:
    Johansen ($3)
    Brassard ($5)
    T. Johnson ($4)
    Spooner ($4)
    Muzzin ($2)
    Huberdeau ($3)
    Tom Wilson ($2)

    Who would you target? Some of them would surely cost me more than just Backstrom.

  11. #11
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Pro

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    Leaning towards Huberdeau and Johansen. An offer of Backstrom + EJ might give me a shot at one of them...

  12. #12
    Moses's Avatar
    Moses is offline
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    4,242
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Genius

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    It sounds to me like you are:

    A) new to this format
    B) inherited a semi-disaster of a team
    C) have 2 GMs in the league that have plucked other rosters clean for this season


    If this is the case you should be scooping up all "value" contracts that you can. Forget about this season. Set you self up for next year. Make sure you don't look too far in to the future. There is no reason you can't win next year - too many fantasy GMs look too far into the future. Careful not to fall into that trap.

    VALUE CONTRACTS!
    VALUE CONTRACTS!
    VALUE CONTRACTS!
    VALUE CONTRACTS!

    Last edited by Moses; February 5, 2016 at 4:10 PM. Reason: speling and grammer
    - I said... "God damn this tablet is heavy!"

  13. #13
    duducks's Avatar
    duducks is offline
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    1,379
    Rep Power
    21

    Dobber Sports Ace

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    Johansen ($3) would be my top choice, and I would pay Backstrom(37).

    How does Backstrom rank in your multicat league?
    How many guys on your current roster will you cut? You have a lot of bargain players, you'll still want to make at least 4 cuts to grab guys in the draft.
    Weekly H2H
    G / A / P / +- / PowerPlayPoints / Shots / Goalie Wins / GAA / Save%

  14. #14
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Pro

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    Backstrom is currently the 17th most valuable skater based on production to date. His PR2016 is 11.41, compared to top player Patrick Kane's 18.97. So while he is a very solid player, I can live without him if I can get someone like Johansen or Huberdeau to replace him and free up cap space.

    I am currently planning to keep Backstrom (barring a trade), Turris, Draisaitl, Panarin, Domi, Ehlers, Burakovsky, Voracek, Palmieri, Stone, Josi, Klingberg, Shatty, Borowiecki, Bishop, Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy. They will cost me $150, leaving another $150 for 5 draft spots. If I move Backstrom for a Johansen or a Huberdeau then I would have closer to $180 for draft. Depending on how the year finishes out, I may keep Namestnikov, Horvat or Kassian if they show enough to be worth it, but they wouldn't change the bottom line much - they would just affect number of available draft spots. Strome and Nylander are likely to just be used as trade bait, unless one of them lights it up in the preseason and makes me keep him.

    Top players likely to be available in draft:
    Ovechkin (PR2016: 16.97)
    Crosby (9.52)
    Tavares (5.84)
    Giroux (10.24)
    Stamkos (7.65)
    Kopitar (10.92)
    Backes (10.42)
    Oshie (9.34)
    Byfuglien (14.07)
    Letang (8.67)
    Lundqvist (8.11)
    Fleury (7.73)
    Rask (2.46)
    Rinne (-2.41)

    Probably not all of them will be available, but most. 75%+

  15. #15
    Location
    Vancouver Island
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Re: Shea Theodore.... Be Patient? Other keeper advice.

    I'd drop Kassian for anyone on the board (not just your list, but anyone available period - John Scott? - I have no faith), but in seriousness - Marner easily as my top choice.

    Of these players:
    Johansen ($3) -
    Brassard ($5)
    T. Johnson ($4) - would be my #1 target as you are buying the lowest on him and he has as high a ceiling as anyone else. Injuries & poor production makes him an ideal candidate to get at half the price you pay if this were last season. Everyone else on this list is trending up
    Spooner ($4)
    Muzzin ($2)
    Huberdeau ($3)
    Tom Wilson ($2)
    Follow me on twitter: @doylelb4

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •