Stock market thread.

[Mr. Guru]

Thanks!

I sold my ($NVDA)puts during the huge selloff and took another overnight put position near the close. Hoping for an overnight gap down, morning flush and ramp back up. That's what I was expecting and that's exactly what happened and still couldn't execute my trade.

Unfortunately I got greedy and didn't take profits (could have gotten another 500%). Only risked/loss around $200, but it feels like I lost $1000.

Market can humble you real fast.

Had a plan and got greedy/didn't stick to plan = loss.

Lesson learned.

[Mr. Guru]

Something I know Blayze always encourages.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren...145038569.html

- - - Updated - - -

Something I know Blayze always encourages.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-is-embarrassing-the-hedge-fund-business-with-his-historic-wager-145038569.html

[Mr. Guru]

Finally invested in the marijuana sector.

Started today with my first bullet; about 5% of my investment....slowly gonna load up the rest throughout the next few months.

Some companies of my interest.

Canopy Growth - $WEED
Aphria - APH
Aurora - ACB

....and the new ETF named $HMMJ.

I've never held a stock more than a month I'd say so this is going to be tricky for me. Opening up a new broker account so I don't even look at it on a day to day basis.

[doulos]

Do you just do this for fun? I honestly have never met a single short term trader who beats the index. Have heard lots of stories of people getting killed on marijuana stocks.

[Mr. Guru]

Yeah just for fun. Some play money on the side.

How old are those stories of people losing their shirts on marijuana stocks?

[doulos]

Within the past 18 months. The marijuana industry is just such a strange one and I think people expect to make big returns just 'because legal!'. It doesn't work that way though. I have friends and family looking into Aurora because of the big grow-op going up in Leduc for no reason really other than 'because legal!' Feels like a chance for a lot of people to get worked over I guess.

If it's just fun money then hey why not. In that way it's like burning some cash at the casino. As long as it's responsibly budgeted for I don't see the harm. I have done the same with Bitcoin/Ethereum over the past couple years. It's done well but I also know it could tank and so it's not investment money, but entertainment money from the entertainment budget.

Good luck with it - let us know how it goes!

[Mr. Guru]

Weird because within the past 18 months marijuana stocks have surged.

They actually started pulling back within the last month or so.

Out of the three companies I posted above I like Aphria the best for a number of reasons.

[Loch]

As for marijuana stocks, I expect a lot of volatility but there's definitely an opportunity there. I am curious to see how competitive it gets (and how quickly...)

I think everyone should hold a little marijuana in their portfolio... a 'toke-n' investment, if you pardon the phrasing.

don't pardon that... seriously people.

[Mr. Guru]

As for marijuana stocks, I expect a lot of volatility but there's definitely an opportunity there. I am curious to see how competitive it gets (and how quickly...)

Saw a pretty neat interview with Bruce Lipton who is the CEO of Canopy Growth (currently Canada's biggest marijuana producer) where the host of the show was comparing the marijuana stocks to that of the tech bubble in the late 90's.

Lipton said, paraphrasing, 'Yeah there was a lot of overvalued companies in that tech bubble, but there was also a few companies that really made it. One of them, for example, is a little company called Google. Ever hear of them?'

He was also saying how it's not fair to include them with all the other producers.

Mentioned how only Canopy Growth and Aphria publicly state how much it costs to produce a gram of marijuana. Obviously a critical piece of information for investors.

He was also saying something like since Canopy Growth grows their marijuana indoors, compared to Aphria (and others) which have greenhouses, he believe's that in the future marijuana will have two different prices. Since they grow with lights, the product is much more consistent. Compared to the sun. It's also much more expensive. Therefor, indoor vs outdoor prices. Not sure how many people will actually care about that to make a market for it. But if it's for medical purposes you'd want the most proficient stuff, right?

Canopy Growth is currently trading at $8.27 a share. It hasn't been this low since November 23rd.

[doulos]

The problem with stock picking is that it's easy to point out the great companies in hindsight but is absolutely proven to be incredibly difficult, if not nearly impossible, to consistently do it over the long run.

It sure is fun though!

[LawMan]

Saw a pretty neat interview with Bruce Lipton who is the CEO of Canopy Growth (currently Canada's biggest marijuana producer) where the host of the show was comparing the marijuana stocks to that of the tech bubble in the late 90's.

Lipton said, paraphrasing, 'Yeah there was a lot of overvalued companies in that tech bubble, but there was also a few companies that really made it. One of them, for example, is a little company called Google. Ever hear of them?'

He was also saying how it's not fair to include them with all the other producers.

Mentioned how only Canopy Growth and Aphria publicly state how much it costs to produce a gram of marijuana. Obviously a critical piece of information for investors.

He was also saying something like since Canopy Growth grows their marijuana indoors, compared to Aphria (and others) which have greenhouses, he believe's that in the future marijuana will have two different prices. Since they grow with lights, the product is much more consistent. Compared to the sun. It's also much more expensive. Therefor, indoor vs outdoor prices. Not sure how many people will actually care about that to make a market for it. But if it's for medical purposes you'd want the most proficient stuff, right?

Canopy Growth is currently trading at $8.27 a share. It hasn't been this low since November 23rd.

Frankly the tech bubble is a perfect analogy for marijuana stocks:
1. Both were brand new industries
2. Both had non-business people leading the charge in operations (tech geeks and experts in growing)
3. Both are industries where the path to monetization is not clear. More so for tech but without knowing anything about the legal/regulatory framework to come, which will vary greatly by province and City there are lots of questions.
4. Both will see tons of competitors enter the market, take on investors who don't want to "miss the boat", most will fail, some will succeed greatly.

If you're able to pick the 1 or 2 marijuana stocks that grow to dominate the market there will be a lot of money to be made, if you pick one of the dozens that end up going bankrtupt there will be money to be lost. The CEO said all the right things in the interview but with zero track record of producing and selling his product its still a massive gamble. CGC could be the next Google or it could be the next: pets.com, vonage, myspace etc.

[Mr. Guru]

Definitely a gamble and even with this dip marijuana stocks are still overpriced.

It's priced like a a young highly drafted prospect in our fantasy leagues. Full of potential and pedigree.

I specifically like the $HMMJ ETF. If you don't want to pick a certain stock/company but want to invest in the sector this is the right choice. The ETF has almost all the market leaders in the sector.

You can see their holdings here: http://www.horizonsetfs.com/ETF/HMMJ

[doulos]

Frankly the tech bubble is a perfect analogy for marijuana stocks:
1. Both were brand new industries
2. Both had non-business people leading the charge in operations (tech geeks and experts in growing)
3. Both are industries where the path to monetization is not clear. More so for tech but without knowing anything about the legal/regulatory framework to come, which will vary greatly by province and City there are lots of questions.
4. Both will see tons of competitors enter the market, take on investors who don't want to "miss the boat", most will fail, some will succeed greatly.

If you're able to pick the 1 or 2 marijuana stocks that grow to dominate the market there will be a lot of money to be made, if you pick one of the dozens that end up going bankrtupt there will be money to be lost. The CEO said all the right things in the interview but with zero track record of producing and selling his product its still a massive gamble. CGC could be the next Google or it could be the next: pets.com, vonage, myspace etc.

Very well said.

[Mr. Guru]

Interesting side note.

There are now more ETF's than stocks.

[doulos]

Interesting side note.

There are now more ETF's than stocks.

Very interesting. I think its a good thing.