On the verge of making a big move! (High risk!)

[Lint07]

Keeper Pool. Points only. Salary cap 75M$ (yearly salary, not cap hit).

Gunning for the championship this season and my team is stacked with talent for the moment. However I won't be able to protect all my top players next summer and I know I'll already have some real tough decisions to make in my protection list so I need to swap NHL players for prospects.

Here's a deal on the table right now that I am on the verge of closing:

I would give: Aleksander Barkov-FLA (F) + Nick Bjugstad-FLA (F)

I would receive: 1st Round Pick 2016 (lottery pick) + Daniel Sprong-PIT (F)

Now, the lottery pick would be a high one as the team i'm dealing with will *for sure* finish either dead last or 24th out of 25. So we are talking at a pick that would potentially give me a 31% or 21% chance of picking 1st overall and get my hands on Auston Matthews.

If I do pick 1st, this looks like a no brainer to me.

My question is the following:
If I do not and instead pick anywhere in the top-5, do I still come out okay in your opinion or is there a very big talent gap after the 1st overall?

Thanks!

[StuntMan12]

Interesting situation here. On the worst end you would be trading Barkov + Bjugstad for Daniel Sprong + 5th Overall? That would be pretty bad. 21-31% chance seems pretty risky and a lot of value to be putting on risk for the 1st overall pick. But there does seem to be a considerable gap between Auston Matthews and 2,3,4,5.

Personally I would try and keep Barkov and Bjugstad because wouldn't their salaries be cheaper?

[Lint07]

Thing is, I simply can't protect them this summer (you can see my situation right here: http://forums.dobbersports.com/showt...should-I-trade ) so I thought might as well package them and shoot for the moon.

The other GM won't move his 1st unless they both are included in the deal. I figure I can take this chance because of all the top kids I already have.

I'm actually okay with the risk, just not sur of what I am gettin my hands on if I DON'T pick 1st overall.

[StuntMan12]

Thing is, I simply can't protect them this summer (you can see my situation right here: http://forums.dobbersports.com/showt...should-I-trade ) so I thought might as well package them and shoot for the moon.

The other GM won't move his 1st unless they both are included in the deal. I figure I can take this chance because of all the top kids I already have.

I'm actually okay with the risk, just not sur of what I am gettin my hands on if I DON'T pick 1st overall.

Ok I see what you mean. Do you think the other manager would rather do Huberdeau + Bjugstad for the 1st pick? I would much rather keep Barkov than Huberdeau myself.

[Lint07]

Actually since then I traded Huberdeau for Jeff Carter for my championship race so I don't have him anymore!

[Lint07]

It is now a done deal.

Anyone has opinions about how good I'll do if I pick top-5 instead of 1st overall next draft?