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Thread: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

  1. #181
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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Don't know if you've done this before kyt, but an interesting extension of the second article would be to track a tourney with say 15k entries (I play the $2 ones over on fanduel now and then), and assess the lineups of the top three finishers to see if:
    a) their lineups are stacked
    b) an optimal stacking lineup could compete
    c) how close to optimal their lineups are

    Idea of course would be to try to find the balance between minimizing the number of darts one has to throw in DFS, and having a legit chance at winning big if your darts hit.

    Cheers

    When I say track a tourney - I mean track it every day over 2-3 weeks.
    Yahoo 12 team H2H Keeper (Keep 7 vets; 3 prospects (Skater < 201 GP; Goalie < 101GP)

    Categories: G, A, P, PIM, +/-, PPP, SOG, FW, Hits, Blocks, W, GAA, Sv% Saves

    Start 3LW, 3C, 3RW, 5D, 2G, 8Bn

    C: Crosby, RNH, Stepan, Faksa
    LW: Ovechkin, Benn, Jenner (c), Komarov (c, rw), Dano
    RW: Voracek (lw), Neal, Hornqvist, Silfverberg, Buchnevich (lw), Boeser
    D: Karlsson, Letang, Ellis, Muzzin, Slavin, Boychuk
    G: Price, Bernier, Grubauer, Pickard

  2. #182
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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Quote Originally Posted by PensInThree View Post
    Don't know if you've done this before kyt, but an interesting extension of the second article would be to track a tourney with say 15k entries (I play the $2 ones over on fanduel now and then), and assess the lineups of the top three finishers to see if:
    a) their lineups are stacked
    b) an optimal stacking lineup could compete
    c) how close to optimal their lineups are

    Idea of course would be to try to find the balance between minimizing the number of darts one has to throw in DFS, and having a legit chance at winning big if your darts hit.

    Cheers

    When I say track a tourney - I mean track it every day over 2-3 weeks.
    I've sort of done this but not on paper. I'll see if I can find some pattern to it. How have you been doing?

    I still think NHL DFS is a lot more skill than people give it credit for. The stuff I'm writing about, most people don't even know or consider. People just don't want to accept that they're actually awful at something.

    "I can't believe Ovechkin couldn't score against Columbus!" - General Annoying DFS Whining

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    I got down about $200 before slowly making my way back up $100. Since dropping down, I've been playing a $1 (single entry), $2 (multi-entry) and $5 (single entry) tourneys - typically with the same lineup though occasionally I'll switch out a coinflip goalie or player - maybe twice a week when I've got a good hunch about games. I've won $23 on my $8 bet 3 of the last 5 times - so some of my strategies are apparently working.

    It is a ton of skill - but that skill really only applies if you're willing to think and bet using the same strategy over weeks/months.
    Yahoo 12 team H2H Keeper (Keep 7 vets; 3 prospects (Skater < 201 GP; Goalie < 101GP)

    Categories: G, A, P, PIM, +/-, PPP, SOG, FW, Hits, Blocks, W, GAA, Sv% Saves

    Start 3LW, 3C, 3RW, 5D, 2G, 8Bn

    C: Crosby, RNH, Stepan, Faksa
    LW: Ovechkin, Benn, Jenner (c), Komarov (c, rw), Dano
    RW: Voracek (lw), Neal, Hornqvist, Silfverberg, Buchnevich (lw), Boeser
    D: Karlsson, Letang, Ellis, Muzzin, Slavin, Boychuk
    G: Price, Bernier, Grubauer, Pickard

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Still waiting for the start of next season when all the new people come out haha
    Yahoo 12 Team H2H
    G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT
    W/ GAA, SV%, SHO

    C: McDavid, Suzuki
    LW: Tkachuk, Schwartz
    RW: Seguin, Bratt, Necas
    D: Josi, Letang, Rielly, Theodore, Chabot
    G: Hart, Knight, Hill
    IR: Murray

  5. #185
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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Quote Originally Posted by dooley89 View Post
    Still waiting for the start of next season when all the new people come out haha
    As in DFS newcomers? Still plenty of fish right now. Heck, I'm a fish, just a smaller one though. =D

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Finished in a 6-way tie for 1st in the Sniper. I was 1st with 30 seconds to go, but last shots from OEK and Doan cost me from winning the grand prize of $2000 all by myself. I still made $1000 for the night though.

    https://twitter.com/kytmagic/status/697654636166123521

    I felt like I had to win a big one to back my words up. The game isn't as tough as some of you make it seem if you truly look into improving at it. It's just the truth.

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Kytmagic - Very impressive win!! Color me green with envy!!

    ~~

    So I took some time off and started playing again over the weekend. Not much has changed for me. LOL My goaltending choices killed me.

    I can’t remember which night it was, but I went with Holtby against the Stars. I knew a shutout was unlikely, but was counting on a lot of saves and hoping for the win. I certainly wasn’t expecting him to get pulled after 4 goals (I think it was 4) leaving me with a -.02. Thankfully in this one my skaters did really well so I at least won my money back. I went with Columbus as the big stack which panned out well.

    Yesterday I rolled the dice on Varlamov against the Sabres. That decision left me with -2 to fight back from right off the bat and my skaters performed like hell so my total points for yesterday was only 23.

    It’s funny because a while back I said the hell with it and chose Varlamov on the road against the Stars and got a really good number out of him (I think it was over 10pts). Clearly Holtby is the better goalie, but he did so poorly this night. It just goes to show, for me anyway, that goaltending is always the crap shoot decision. Tonight I’m looking at Markstrom as of right now.

    I’m trying something I’ve never really focused on trying before. I’m going ONLY with players playing on home ice. I doubt it’ll make any bit of difference at all, but I want to try it anyway. Can’t hurt….

  8. #188
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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bergy80 View Post
    Kytmagic - Very impressive win!! Color me green with envy!!

    ~~

    So I took some time off and started playing again over the weekend. Not much has changed for me. LOL My goaltending choices killed me.

    I can’t remember which night it was, but I went with Holtby against the Stars. I knew a shutout was unlikely, but was counting on a lot of saves and hoping for the win. I certainly wasn’t expecting him to get pulled after 4 goals (I think it was 4) leaving me with a -.02. Thankfully in this one my skaters did really well so I at least won my money back. I went with Columbus as the big stack which panned out well.

    Yesterday I rolled the dice on Varlamov against the Sabres. That decision left me with -2 to fight back from right off the bat and my skaters performed like hell so my total points for yesterday was only 23.

    It’s funny because a while back I said the hell with it and chose Varlamov on the road against the Stars and got a really good number out of him (I think it was over 10pts). Clearly Holtby is the better goalie, but he did so poorly this night. It just goes to show, for me anyway, that goaltending is always the crap shoot decision. Tonight I’m looking at Markstrom as of right now.

    I’m trying something I’ve never really focused on trying before. I’m going ONLY with players playing on home ice. I doubt it’ll make any bit of difference at all, but I want to try it anyway. Can’t hurt….
    Learn the lessons I am teaching. Stop trying to predict what will actually happen. If goalies are such a crapshoot, control what is more predictable and that's ownership. If your crapshoot goalie does well and most people own him, who cares? If your crapshoot goalie does well and very few people own him, you'll have a big night. Focus on that, my man. It also makes you tilt less since you are less results focused. I won because I had King Henrik when most people didn't want him against Crosby. He got a shutout and I won over a grand. That's what you want to happen.

    Don't confuse that with taking a shit goalie. The idea is to take a goalie that the public is undervaluing because they are overvaluing another option. The most popular choice tonight was Darling.

  9. #189
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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    I honestly think I lack that filter of choosing the lesser owned players. Is there a site to show owner percentage predictions before game time?

    So let me babble a while.... LOL

    For goalies tonight, I'm guessing these will be the top owned (provided they are confirmed to start later on in the day): Schneider, Holtby, Jones, and Bishop. Would you agree?

    For skaters, I see a lot of people will want to stack Washington, SJ, Dallas, STL, and EDM. Would you agree with that?

    Based on that, my tentative lineup for right now looks like this (and I still have tons of salary leftover which bugs me)...

    B. Dubinsky
    V. Rask
    C. Atkinson
    P. DiGiuseppe
    J. Skinner
    S. Jones
    J. Enroth
    B. Jenner

    As a B's fan I have to say this really bugs me to go against my team. My reason for NOT going with them is because of your theory. I'm thinking Marchand and Eriksson (the two I'd want the most) will be highly owned, especially Marchand.

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bergy80 View Post
    I honestly think I lack that filter of choosing the lesser owned players. Is there a site to show owner percentage predictions before game time?

    So let me babble a while.... LOL

    For goalies tonight, I'm guessing these will be the top owned (provided they are confirmed to start later on in the day): Schneider, Holtby, Jones, and Bishop. Would you agree?

    For skaters, I see a lot of people will want to stack Washington, SJ, Dallas, STL, and EDM. Would you agree with that?

    Based on that, my tentative lineup for right now looks like this (and I still have tons of salary leftover which bugs me)...

    B. Dubinsky
    V. Rask
    C. Atkinson
    P. DiGiuseppe
    J. Skinner
    S. Jones
    J. Enroth
    B. Jenner

    As a B's fan I have to say this really bugs me to go against my team. My reason for NOT going with them is because of your theory. I'm thinking Marchand and Eriksson (the two I'd want the most) will be highly owned, especially Marchand.
    I got to get to work, but I would suggest simply looking at Vegas odds to see which cheap goalie is a favourite in his game.

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Well, that's how I initially starting choosing a goalie and I was told I was overthinking things doing it this way. I'll just keep experimenting and trying new things. Whatever happens, happens.....

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bergy80 View Post
    Well, that's how I initially starting choosing a goalie and I was told I was overthinking things doing it this way. I'll just keep experimenting and trying new things. Whatever happens, happens.....
    Who the heck said that? I also don't remember you focusing too much on ownership before I explained it to you.

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    I don't remember who said it or if it was even here, but someone did tell me that I was overthinking things by doing that. I had heard about the low ownership side of things before you, but never really understood the concept until you explained it better. Now I understand it better, but still don't think I have the knack for picking the right players on any given night. You've definitely gotten that part figured out.

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Hey kytmagic, do you care to share your losses as well as your wins? It's great that have have some big wins under your belt, but they mean nothing if we don't know how much it cost to get them.

    Gamblers are known to go home and boast a $1000 win, but they don't mention the fact that they put $700 in the machine before it paid out, and lost another $700 the day before.

    I hope this doesn't come off the wrong way, but I'm really just curious about the other side. Are you up overall? How much $$ do you stake on any given night? What are your biggest daily losses? If you're going to have a bit of a fan following, then I think you have some responsibility to be as honest about the numbers as possible. Just my 2 cents of course.

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Quote Originally Posted by forumname View Post
    Hey kytmagic, do you care to share your losses as well as your wins? It's great that have have some big wins under your belt, but they mean nothing if we don't know how much it cost to get them.

    Gamblers are known to go home and boast a $1000 win, but they don't mention the fact that they put $700 in the machine before it paid out, and lost another $700 the day before.

    I hope this doesn't come off the wrong way, but I'm really just curious about the other side. Are you up overall? How much $$ do you stake on any given night? What are your biggest daily losses? If you're going to have a bit of a fan following, then I think you have some responsibility to be as honest about the numbers as possible. Just my 2 cents of course.
    No problem, forumname. I think most everyone I have talked to over the course of my short-lived poker career have done exactly that - exaggerate their results. Who cares if someone wins a $2000 tournament if the entry is $200 and they've tried 50+ times to win it right? I can upload my graph later this week if you're interested because RotoGrinders has a tool that allows me to import an exported DraftKings entry history spreadsheet. I would say up to this point, I am up close to $1000 in NHL with long strings of losses and a few big wins.

    Now, I fear some people will just cast the graph off as a guy being lucky but that's exactly the type of graph my strategy (heavy emphasis on ownership) will produce. I'm not trying to predict the results of every night which is something everyone else seems to try to do. I'm trying to get the best value for my dollar every night, which means focus on the good players who will not be owned by everyone else. Keep in mind that I am fully aware that I would need to play WAY MORE contests to really know if what I'm doing is a profitable strategy. I could just be running insanely hot and I know that.

    It's hard to say how much I play every night because it varies. I'm not exactly taking a super disciplined approach when playing DFS. For the most part I'll enter roughly 10-15 $3 contests, but I will sometimes take shots at a $20/$27 contest. People should just play whatever they are comfortable playing.

    My main goal wasn't to gain a fan following though it would be sweet to gain a little tiny blog fame like I have done in the Magic: The Gathering world. It was more to find more like-minded individuals who wanted to get better at this game with me. I am very much still a beginner, but I can spot really obvious mistakes.

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