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Thread: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    welcome to the boards Bergy, glad you are getting solid advice from the boys, always the best they are!

    take care
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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    *sigh* another night.... all losses, including the 4 50/50s I was in.

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    I have about 20 bucks in my fanduel account sitting there since the 13-14 season ; myabe I should make a few bets this week .

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    It kind of sounds like you're betting too high. When your cash pool is low and you're just starting out, I think it's better to play the small bets.

    Luck is still an important factor with DFS. I bought the Dobber package this year and I've turned that $10 into $110 by only playing $1 bets lol. I almost never play the tournaments because you essentially need to win the lottery to make it into the top 5; and anywhere outside of the top 5 the payout is negligible anyways; 6th place tends to share the prize with 20 other people, for example. So I do 1-5 $1 bets per night (depending on my gut feeling) in contests with far less people. 50/50s and/or contests with 10-20 people.

    My method is simple. I keep up with news and I know the top two lines on each team, and all the goalies. I do my best to keep up with trends (who's hot/not hot, which teams are hot/not hot, who's been called up, kids playing on a top line, etc.). Then I confirm lines and PP units with daily face-off. Then I check player profiles here on Dobber to see who's due to regress (and which lines are due to regress).

    Pretty much it. I chip away at it with those small bets, and while I haven't kept track of my win-rate, it's probably pretty close to 55%. I tend to use about 5% or less of my total cash pool per night. So eventually, with a much larger cash pool, I could enter the same kind of contests with higher entry fees and potentially win a lot more.
    12 team keeper
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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Glad to see this forum is getting a bit more activity lately!

    Heavy night tonight which can be good if you go with your gut and pick 9 players who are going to light it up.
    I always make sure I have 1-2 real cheap high risk guys and as long as they get 2-3 points I am usually good, assuming my 7 good players get 6-7 each.

    On a night like tonight there are so many super stars playing that I doubt many people will draft a single player from ARI/BUF/CAR and even PHI since they just dont carry the seguin,benn,ovi,tarasenko,kane type players of daily fantasy hockey.
    Yahoo 12 Team H2H
    G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT
    W/ GAA, SV%, SHO

    C: McDavid, Suzuki
    LW: Tkachuk, Schwartz
    RW: Seguin, Bratt, Necas
    D: Josi, Letang, Rielly, Theodore, Chabot
    G: Hart, Knight, Hill
    IR: Murray

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Quote Originally Posted by Bergy80 View Post
    I definitely think I need to research more than I am. Ijust don’t know how or where to do it.

    My steps to choosing my players goes something like this…

    1. Look at the Vegas odds to see who’s favorited in eachcontest. Most of the time I’ll choose agoalie from one of the “winning” teams.
    2. Once my goalie is drafted I’ll pick a big named studplayer like Ovechkin, Stamkos, Tarasenko, etc along with a linemate if I canafford it.
    3. I’ll look at the other players home/away splits, pointproduction, shots on net, blocked shots, etc. and fill in the spaces while tryingto get as many line combos in along with players who get power play time.

    As for choosing players who do better on certain nights,what their stats are against that night’s opponent, well I could definitely usesome direction in that area. Where would I find this information from a freesource?

    I’m not sure what you mean when you say “howtheir games FPTS compare to the seasonal average” though.
    Be careful in drafting a stud, you have to be pretty sure they are going to have a great night otherwise they aren't worth it, especially Ovechkin who's usually $9,000 or more on DraftKings. I had the Ducks first line and had Benn last night and I killed it once again so I'm delighted today! Plus I have Perry and Getzlaf in my season long hockey pool so I'm thrilled! What I mean by FPTS vs seasonal average is let's say that a player has 3.6 average fantasy points for the season, but they have more than that each game for the last 6 games, that means they could be a good pick up as they are on a hot streak and are likely worth more than their current salary. Salary fluctuation really takes average fantasy points for the season into consideration, so when a player keeps besting it and if their salary isn't rising much during that period then they are a good value pick up.
    Founder and President of DraftFuel.com

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Quote Originally Posted by draftfuel View Post
    Be careful in drafting a stud, you have to be pretty sure they are going to have a great night otherwise they aren't worth it, especially Ovechkin who's usually $9,000 or more on DraftKings. I had the Ducks first line and had Benn last night and I killed it once again so I'm delighted today! Plus I have Perry and Getzlaf in my season long hockey pool so I'm thrilled! What I mean by FPTS vs seasonal average is let's say that a player has 3.6 average fantasy points for the season, but they have more than that each game for the last 6 games, that means they could be a good pick up as they are on a hot streak and are likely worth more than their current salary. Salary fluctuation really takes average fantasy points for the season into consideration, so when a player keeps besting it and if their salary isn't rising much during that period then they are a good value pick up.
    I would be interested to see where a stud wasn't part of a winning lineup. From personal experience, when I do win, it's because I drafted a stud who was more than worth his value.
    Yahoo 12 Team H2H
    G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT
    W/ GAA, SV%, SHO

    C: McDavid, Suzuki
    LW: Tkachuk, Schwartz
    RW: Seguin, Bratt, Necas
    D: Josi, Letang, Rielly, Theodore, Chabot
    G: Hart, Knight, Hill
    IR: Murray

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Quote Originally Posted by dooley89 View Post
    I would be interested to see where a stud wasn't part of a winning lineup. From personal experience, when I do win, it's because I drafted a stud who was more than worth his value.
    To place high in the tournament contests I agree that typically it takes a stud to get the job done unless there's solid production from a bunch of mid tier players. But yeah usually you need a huge game from a Kane, Benn, Seguin, Crosby, Ovechkin, etc. to win the big money.
    Founder and President of DraftFuel.com

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Quote Originally Posted by draftfuel View Post
    To place high in the tournament contests I agree that typically it takes a stud to get the job done unless there's solid production from a bunch of mid tier players. But yeah usually you need a huge game from a Kane, Benn, Seguin, Crosby, Ovechkin, etc. to win the big money.
    I think it's most important to have a player with low ownership that does well. Here's the goalie ownership percentages in an early GPP on FanDuel:

    Mike Condon 13.2%
    Cam Ward 8.1%
    Marc-Andre Fleury 5%
    Karri Ramo 4.8%
    Antti Niemi 4.4%
    Mike Smith 3.7%
    Jaroslav Halak 2.8%
    Petr Mrazek 2.7%
    Jimmy Howard 2.7%
    Chad Johnson 2.5%
    Roberto Luongo 1.8%
    Ben Bishop 1.7%
    Sergei Bobrovsky 1.7%
    Cory Schneider 1.4%
    Anders Nilsson 1%
    Cameron Talbot .8%
    Michael Hutchinson .7%
    Linus Ullmark .5%
    Anders Lindback .2%
    Richard Bachman .2%
    Jacob Markstrom .1%
    Thomas Greiss .1%

    Whichever goalie get's the start in Detroit will likely be the 3rd highest owned goalie, as the two goalkeepers both had 2.7% ownership. I've posted complete ownership percentages for today's early games here: http://www.direfantasy.com/daily-fan...ntages-friday/

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    I've won 2 nights in a row in 50-50 leagues .

    we'll see if my luck ? skill ? continues tonight

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Here are the early ownership percentages:

    http://www.direfantasy.com/daily-fan...ages-saturday/

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Ok, so that part doesn't really make sense to me. Why would players with less ownership be a better choice than players higher ownership? Take Ovechkin as an example. He's almost a guarantee to put up good numbers night after night so I can understand why so many would pick him. Why would lesser owned players with less skill be a better option?

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Who says that lesser owned players have less skill? A huge part of winning a big tournament is going against the grain. Not saying that every single player has to be low owned, you could put Ovechkin in your lineup and still win a big tournament. What I'm saying is you need to have those players that very few others have and hope they have a big night for you because you'll be one of the only ones getting huge points.

    For example here are some guys I would have looked at tonight based on those owned percentages:

    Gaudreau (1%) - Monahan (0.3%) - Hudler (0.3%) - Why, because the line is back together and they could breakout at anytime. If your the guy who has them when they do your looking to cash in.
    Parise (2.3%), Hartnell (1.4%), Okposo (1.7%), Kucherov (1.6%), Hedman (.7%), Josi (2.3%), are just some other very good players that could break out.

    On Fanduel, Taylor Hall was 2.3% according to the NHL One-Timer single entry tonight, he has 5.9 FP as I write this. Ovechkin has 5.2 FP, 16.2% owned, and is $1000 more to pay up for. Hall is the better LW choice tonight and anyone who picked him instead of Ovi has a leg up on everyone else. I realize the difference is only .7 FP but I'm just using it as an example. If Hall went off for 15 FP and Ovi still had 5FP that 2.3% with Hall would be shooting towards the top.

    Here is my lineup for the $1 One-timer single entry tonight on Fanduel. Sitting 52nd out of 5405 people and only making $8. It is only $1 entry, but still these tournaments are so hard to take down.

    e7a4c0af2a23a6be7dd1c7bd4c2d27cf.png

    As you can see I went against the grain with the Blue Jackets over the Blues because Bobrovsky has been playing better as of late and so has Johansen. Also the Devils players because they lost to Montreal last night and could see them coming back to win tonight. They didn't really explode or anything to win the tournament, but I'm at least making $9 off of the $1 I put in. The potential was definitely there though.

    Here is an example of my best lineup I have ever put together on Fanduel.

    800cbac6215d2e86cad8dd44a27148e1.png

    Seguin and Benn didn't have a point after the first couple games last year and people we're off them, so I took them and lucked out. They were only 3% owned which was a huge reason as to why I won. And because of that I could afford one of my players to get 0.7 points and my goalie to not get the win.

    That's some of my thinking when it comes to DFS.

  14. #44
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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Well, if a player is on the 3rd or 4th line and only scores about 10 goals a year then obviously they're not as skilled as the Ovechkin's and Crosby's, at least not scoring wise which is what really matters in fantasy. That's what I mean by that. Every time I've tried my luck doing as you suggest I got burned with a zero or .5 for scores. I don't like FanDuel so I don't play there

    Maybe it's something I'll learn in time, it just seems weird to me that the percentage owned would have such a big roll in this. Where do you find out the nightly percentages? I can start tinkering around with that to see if it helps.

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    Default Re: Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

    Quote Originally Posted by butch View Post
    I've won 2 nights in a row in 50-50 leagues .

    we'll see if my luck ? skill ? continues tonight
    Awesome, good stuff, congrats! I'm really rolling right now too, averaging 35-55 points over the past few nights! May go in the big $20 NHL contest coming up on Tuesday on DraftKings.
    Founder and President of DraftFuel.com

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