2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

[RizzeeDizzee]

Updated "Reach Factor" based on all four Dobber league drafts:
[Most Negative Value means a lot of players taken well before their ADP.]

+7.9 Sat Night Special
...
+3.6 The Comish
+2.3 Laying the Law
+0.9 Daoust Dynasty
-0.4 The Goods
-1.8 HolyPuck
-4.0 Top 10 finish
-4.3 Last Resort
-6.2 LeBlanc's Legion
...
-14.1 rizzee dizzee
-15.4 5 for Fighting
-16.6 Elder's Mind Tricks
-30.1 Contra Dictions

Interpretation in conjunction with Temek's Projected Standings:
High in Temek Standings & High in Reach Value - suggests team value-drafted players wrongfully passed over by other GMs
High in Temek Standings & Low in Reach Value - suggests team is reaching for the RIGHT players
Low in Temek Standings & High in Reach Value - suggests team took bad players rightfully passed over by other GMs (ex. JVR)
Low in Temek Standings & Low in Reach Value - suggests team is reaching for the WRONG players

What do you mean by Temek Standings? I saw ITT that he named three teams as ones he liked - was there more than that?

[temek]

What do you mean by Temek Standings? I saw ITT that he named three teams as ones he liked - was there more than that?

Pengwin just assumed I had posted my projected standings for this league as I had done for the Entry and Pro leagues. I thought I did too, but apparently I forgot. Fixed some small errors so rankings changed slightly, but nothing significant.

Obviously the prediction is heavily biased towards my team so wouldn't pay much attention that my team is at the top by quite a margin. It more or less means just that I did draft well relative to my projections and would mean pretty much nothing if my projections are poor. You can see I have The Comish slightly ahead of the pack and then everyone else is pretty much tied as 10 pts is very little when it comes to projections. Several teams are also projected to not reach 164 GP in goalies so could gain ground there if they fix that as 2 of 3 goalie categories are quantity-based.

Rank	Team	Skater pts	Goalie pts	Total pts
1	Last Resort	74	31	105
2	The Comish	44	30	74
3	Elder's Mind Tricks	33	30	63
4	rizzeedizzee's Team	34	27	61
5	5 For Fighting	36	24	60
6	HolyPuck	52	8	60
7	Sat. Night Special	52	7	59
8	Daoust Dynasty	38	20	58
9	LeBlanc's Legion	33	24	57
10	The Goods	40	17	57
11	Top 10 finish	39	18	57
12	Laying the Law	36	20	56
13	Contra Dictions	35	17	52

[RizzeeDizzee]

Pengwin just assumed I had posted my projected standings for this league as I had done for the Entry and Pro leagues. I thought I did too, but apparently I forgot. Fixed some small errors so rankings changed slightly, but nothing significant.

Obviously the prediction is heavily biased towards my team so wouldn't pay much attention that my team is at the top by quite a margin. It more or less means just that I did draft well relative to my projections and would mean pretty much nothing if my projections are poor. You can see I have The Comish slightly ahead of the pack and then everyone else is pretty much tied as 10 pts is very little when it comes to projections. Several teams are also projected to not reach 164 GP in goalies so could gain ground there if they fix that as 2 of 3 goalie categories are quantity-based.

Rank	Team	Skater pts	Goalie pts	Total pts
1	Last Resort	74	31	105
2	The Comish	44	30	74
3	Elder's Mind Tricks	33	30	63
4	rizzeedizzee's Team	34	27	61
5	5 For Fighting	36	24	60
6	HolyPuck	52	8	60
7	Sat. Night Special	52	7	59
8	Daoust Dynasty	38	20	58
9	LeBlanc's Legion	33	24	57
10	The Goods	40	17	57
11	Top 10 finish	39	18	57
12	Laying the Law	36	20	56
13	Contra Dictions	35	17	52

Wow - unlike for the other three drafts there are a lot of 180s from the ADP list that Pengwin posted. Very interesting to say the least.

[austeane]

Pengwin just assumed I had posted my projected standings for this league as I had done for the Entry and Pro leagues. I thought I did too, but apparently I forgot. Fixed some small errors so rankings changed slightly, but nothing significant.

Obviously the prediction is heavily biased towards my team so wouldn't pay much attention that my team is at the top by quite a margin. It more or less means just that I did draft well relative to my projections and would mean pretty much nothing if my projections are poor. You can see I have The Comish slightly ahead of the pack and then everyone else is pretty much tied as 10 pts is very little when it comes to projections. Several teams are also projected to not reach 164 GP in goalies so could gain ground there if they fix that as 2 of 3 goalie categories are quantity-based.

Rank	Team	Skater pts	Goalie pts	Total pts
1	Last Resort	74	31	105
2	The Comish	44	30	74
3	Elder's Mind Tricks	33	30	63
4	rizzeedizzee's Team	34	27	61
5	5 For Fighting	36	24	60
6	HolyPuck	52	8	60
7	Sat. Night Special	52	7	59
8	Daoust Dynasty	38	20	58
9	LeBlanc's Legion	33	24	57
10	The Goods	40	17	57
11	Top 10 finish	39	18	57
12	Laying the Law	36	20	56
13	Contra Dictions	35	17	52

So I'm the second worst in terms of reach and second best in Temek standings (not including Temek who is first by definition). Interesting.

[RizzeeDizzee]

So I'm the second worst in terms of reach and second best in Temek standings (not including Temek who is first by definition). Interesting.

Yup - teams 3, 4, and 5 in Temek's list were second from last, fourth from last, and third from last in the ADP "Reach" list, while the third best ADP Reach team was second to last here. Only The Comish should be resting easy as being near the top in both.

[Pengwin7]

So I'm the second worst in terms of reach and second best in Temek standings (not including Temek who is first by definition). Interesting.

Yup - teams 3, 4, and 5 in Temek's list were second from last, fourth from last, and third from last in the ADP "Reach" list, while the third best ADP Reach team was second to last here. Only The Comish should be resting easy as being near the top in both.

Yeah, it's interesting.
The "Reach Factor" is not necessarily a bad thing.
In leagues with keener GMs, there can often be a NEED to reach to get a player that you know will go early.

For example, Dustin Byfuglien went 10th overall in the PRO.
Buff is Yahoo O-Ranked at #38.
Buff is mass Yahoo league ADP'd at 38.7.
Buff is Dobber league ADP'd at 21.3
And I'd bet Buff's D-stats over 82gp would shake out in FHG to a top 8 player.

So... there's nothing wrong with reaching for him if he's best player on the board.
Drafting him at #10 (when his ADP is 21.3) means there will be a negative reach factor associated with him... but again, it's not necessarily a bad thing.
The best overall value in drafting is to get a player as late-as-possible - which increases his draft-position-relative-value.
But there's still good-to-great value in simply getting a player that is the best on the board, in one's opinion.

"Reach Factor" will be met with the same sort of "opinion" as +/-... which is my favourite basic NHL stat (advanced stats such as Corsi/Fenwick are much better than pure +/-, but for a long-time we didn't have them).
There's people that will bash +/- simply because they think a stat that can peg Jeff Schultz at +50 and Alex Ovechkin at -30 is a stupid stat with zero value.
If you have the eyes to look deeper (to know that Jeff Schultz was Mike Green's D-partner... or that Dallas Smith was once Bobby Orr's partner)... you can actually extract something from it... with context.
One would know when to put stock in the stat (Lidstrom/Orr) and when to not (Jeff Schultz, Dallas Smith).

Especially in combination with Temek's Projected Standings (which are excellent - for player projection value)... I think there's information that one can extract w.r.t. how the GM drafted: reaching well, reaching poorly, passing on overvalued players, taking advantage of passed-over players, etc....

There is meaning, IMO, to having the combination of a NEGATIVE "Reach Factor" and finishing or being predicted in upper half of standings.
And the meaning actually reflects a good trait in a GM.
[I feel the need to green/italicize/underline this part because it feels like some of you are reacting like: Pengwin be bashing my draft with his "Reach Factor"... so now Ima bash Pengwins work... um, not so... not so... numbers are just numbers, not opinion.]

We now have "advanced analytics" with regard to hockey stats.
Someday, in the future, you'll see fantasy football pools... the very, very high-stakes serious ones... with advanced analytics about GM-draft-tendencies. Think about that!
[The high-stakes fantasy people will start collecting data on what other GMs draft - the way Netflix collects data about what we all watch. Many of my own common leaguemates... if you asked them "How's Pengwin gonna draft?"... they could tell you.]
Consider "Reach Factor" as your first foray into that!

[duntroon68]

Regarding reaching, in this draft I could tell that Edler's Mind Tricks was drafting off a FHG list and taking the best player regardless of Yahoo rank. I had the same list. I tried to wait and get more value in the Smythe and was often sniped by Streit Outta Compton. In the end, by Temek's rankings, both "reachers" are projected to do better than myself. I think among GM's who are going to draft by actual league value reaching according to Yahoo rank is the way to go. Now, this reach rank isn't strictly by Yahoo so there is informed context and it mostly provides strategic information about individual drafting preferences. I think.

[ericdaoust]

in this draft I could tell that Edler's Mind Tricks was drafting off a FHG list

I believe most people were using FHG.

[Pengwin7]

I believe most people were using FHG.

Say it ain't so!
Not the experts!!!

I love the concept & learning power of FHG... but using it "in-draft"... oh mercy... ... I don't want to drop the c-word for fear of the backlash I've received in the past...
We had several in "PRO" that were obviously using it too...
We pengwins know a robot when we see one!

[duntroon68]

But Edler's was taking players where they were ranked while others were trying to split the difference. Although in the Pro league more drafted like Edler's. Buff and Subban in round 1, Backstrom and MaxPac in the 2nd, Andersen in 3, OEL in 4 and Faulk in 5 are all ranked higher in this format by FHG than in Yahoo. Some went close in Experts: Karlsson and OEL. But when Edler's took OEL in 3 and especially Jack Johnson in 8, when Yahoo had him 226, I thought "I've seen this list and he's not trying to get the discount." But given Temek's rankings perhaps the discount wasn't worth waiting on. I tried for the value and often missed out.

[gooding74]

Here's my team's breakdown, pick by pick, from the Sunday Ramblings:

http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-r...ember-27-2015/

[The Comish]

I believe most people were using FHG.

I tried FHG in one draft last year and felt very uncomfortable with where to take guys. This year, I put more time into my own rankings/predictions and felt much better about my draft outcome by "winging" it. FHG is a fantastic tool, but it's only as good as the numbers you use to generate your player values and you still really need to figure out when to take guys to take advantage of their relative value in your league. Like I said, I simplified this year and feel pretty good going forward.

[austeane]

I had less time to organize for this pool than I would have liked, so I decided to go with the FHG as my primary list, and augment from there. The thought being that it should prevent me from making stupid moves, while I can still decide (from the relatively few notes I had) on better moves.

Unfortunately, I scrambled a couple of times from connection issues, life interruptions and FHG crashing, and that's where most of my reaches came from.
OEL I like a lot, and I think he will do really well this year and being the offensive defensemen along with hopefully a good PP... I could have waited maybe till the 4th round, but that wasn't a bad pick.

Johnson was a reach and one of my misses. The players I had queued up were taken, and my connection was being weird. I had a couple of other bad picks as well, but I don't think that using FHG as a base is a terrible thing with limited prep. For me, I think without the picks I knew immediately were bad, I would have been higher up in the reach rankings while still high in the Temek rankings.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I tried FHG in one draft last year and felt very uncomfortable with where to take guys. This year, I put more time into my own rankings/predictions and felt much better about my draft outcome by "winging" it. FHG is a fantastic tool, but it's only as good as the numbers you use to generate your player values and you still really need to figure out when to take guys to take advantage of their relative value in your league. Like I said, I simplified this year and feel pretty good going forward.

This is my basic approach as well. I use FHG to formulate my own rankings of sorts, especially when deciding between two seemingly similar players and to open my eyes about guys I might've otherwise over/undervalued.

[ericdaoust]

Even with FHG there's plenty of key decisions to make and scrambling. It only sorts players based on the projections. Doesn't account for accuracy of those numbers or player value.