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Thread: 2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

  1. #31
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    Default Re: 2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    Same drill as my last post - "worst" pick of each round in bold italics.

    Round 20
    3. Dustin Brown (LA - LW,RW) Top 10 finish - Maybe if there wasn't already another Dustin Brown in LA now named Milan Lucic. I'd take David Clarkson over Brown at this point, and Clarkson wasn't drafted....
    I looked. Lucic wasn't available at that point.

    I won't defend the other picks, but for me, Brown was just about the hits (a category that I believe I was short on at this point). If he can have a half-decent plus-minus, and hover around 200 shots a season, I'm happy.

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    12-team Keeper pool, straight points for forwards & dmen. Goalies get: 2 points per win, 3 per shutout, 1 point per assist & 1 point per shootout loss.

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    Default Re: 2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

    Quote Originally Posted by newfcollins View Post
    I looked. Lucic wasn't available at that point.

    I won't defend the other picks, but for me, Brown was just about the hits (a category that I believe I was short on at this point). If he can have a half-decent plus-minus, and hover around 200 shots a season, I'm happy.
    Most late round picks are gambles anyway. We have unlimited transactions so it's not like we can't cover for any "mistakes".


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  3. #33
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    Default Re: 2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

    Quote Originally Posted by newfcollins View Post
    I looked. Lucic wasn't available at that point.

    I won't defend the other picks, but for me, Brown was just about the hits (a category that I believe I was short on at this point). If he can have a half-decent plus-minus, and hover around 200 shots a season, I'm happy.
    His shots totals have dropped in six straight seasons, so banking on 200 is a big, big stretch. In that draft slot, and using that logic, I honestly think that in 2015-16 a much better case could be made to take Lance Bouma. Sure - Brown probably finishes with a tad more shots, but you'll get fewer points along the way.
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  4. #34
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    Default Re: 2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

    I was very excited to only be in "worst pick" doghouse twice. I was expecting that number to be much higher.
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    If I'm going to get pegged with the worst pick in a round it may as well be the last round. Martinez, by the way, will do just fine even with Ehrhoff around.
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    Default Re: 2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    Martinez, by the way, will do just fine even with Ehrhoff around.
    I'm with you on this one.


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    The Comish

    C-Dubinsky(L), Toffoli(L/R/D/G), Stepan, Krejci
    L-Landeskog, N.Foligno(C), Palat, Hertl(C)
    R-Seguin(C), Stone, Pastrnak, J.Hayes
    D-Hamilton, Wideman, Myers, Brodie, H.Lindholm, Garrison
    G-Lundqvist, Dubnyk
    Bench-B.Elliott, Jenner, Perreault, Daley, Klein

    1. (6) Tyler Seguin (Dal - C,RW) - I had a tough time NOT taking Price, but with 6 categories for skaters and only 3 for goalies, I decided the Price was NOT right this time.

    2. (21) Henrik Lundqvist (NYR - G) - Wanted a top flight goalie with this pick. It came down to Lundqvist and Quick, so when Elder's Mind Tricks made Quick disappear, my choice was easy.

    3. (32) Devan Dubnyk (Min - G) - Thought I would put my goalies to rest with back-to-back G picks. I'm a believer that Dubnyk is for real, so this wasn't a tough decision for me.

    4. (47) Gabriel Landeskog (Col - LW) - I struggled mightily with this pick. I saw Schneider and Giordano sitting there, but I already had 2 goalies and I didn't want to take a Band-Aid Boy in the 4th round. I nearly took Nick Foligno with this pick.

    5. (58) Nick Foligno (Cls - C,LW) - Nice to get the guy you passed on the round before, but I was really hoping to take one of Giordano (Hopkins), Doughty (Laidlaw) or Hedman (LeBlanc).

    6. (73) Dougie Hamilton (Cgy - D) - In hindsight, I should have taken Josi or Carlson instead of Foligno. By the time my pick rolled around, Yandle, Pietrangelo and Keith were all off the board. So my top D has a crowded blueline to deal with, but I think he's in the mix for PP1 and could come close to 50 points, 120 hits and 200 shots.

    7. (84) Ondrej Palat (TB - LW) - Almost took Ekblad, but couldn't pass on nearly 50 assist, 130 hits and plus-30 (plus-63 last two seasons combined).

    8. (99) Brian Elliott (StL - G) - So I missed out on Ekblad (thanks Demetri) and decided to take another goalie off the table that can provide nice numbers.

    9. (110) Mark Stone (Ott - RW) - It was between Klingberg, Stone, Kreider and Dubinsky. I just liked Stone more. I'm in the camp that has him picking up where he left off. 30 goals, 40 assists, plus-20 (gotta keep taking plus players).

    10. (125) Brandon Dubinsky (Cls - C,LW) - Since Klingberg and Kreider got taken and the fact I still didn't have a C (plan on playing Seguin at RW and Foligno at LW), I finally pluck my first C. Lots of hits to go along with a penchant for getting hurt.

    11. (136) Tyler Toffoli (LA - C,LW,RW) - Disappointed Scheifele and Krug came off the board before my pick. I had Toffoli as L/R in my draft list, but Yahoo made him C eligible and that's where I'll plug him in. Plus-20, 55 points and over 200 sog.

    12. (151) Derek Stepan (NYR - C) - Really wanted to take my second D, but Stepan's 55 points in only 68 games and that beauty plus/minus were enough to pass on Kronwall.

    13. (162) Dennis Wideman (Cgy - D) - Of course Kronwall wasn't there for this pick, so I took a guy who had 56 points and 21 PPP last year. Will he repeat those numbers this year, no way, but he won't get totally shutout either.

    14. (177) David Pastrnak (Bos - LW,RW) - I was lining up Barkov, but Roos snagged him a few picks from mine. Also thought about Erik Johnson, but Pastrnak has the talent to play on the B's top line this year and he fills my 3rd RW slot nicely.

    15. (188) David Krejci (Bos - C) - Was looking at taking my 3rd D, but there were so many flavours of meh that I took a guy who ran into a little injury trouble last year. Krejci had 31 points in 47 games and should bounce back with close to 60 points.

    16. (203) Tyler Myers (Wpg - D) - Time for a D run. Missed out on Hamonic. My situation on the backend was getting stupid, but the next 3 guys should all have a shot at 40 points. Myers had 15 points in 24 games after the trade to the Jets.

    17. (214) T.J. Brodie (Cgy - D) - I threw up in my mouth a little with this pick. I'm an Oiler fan and 3 of my first 4 D are Flames!? Gross.

    18. (229) Hampus Lindholm (Anh - D) - Was hoping Bogosian would fall to me, but Tom Collins sniped him at the tail end of round 17. I have Lindholm pegged for 35 points and a sweet plus/minus on a stacked Ducks roster.

    19. (240) Tomas Hertl (SJ - C,LW) - Probably my most disappointing round. Wanted Nichushkin (Laidlaw), Fowler (Sat. Night Special) and then Seth Jones (Hopkins), but had to settle for Hertl. Could net 50 points, 105 hits, 180 shots and 15 PPP?

    20. (255) Boone Jenner (Cls - C) - Stoked to get a hits monster with potential for 40 points, 210 shots and a dozen PPP.

    21. (266) Mathieu Perreault (Wpg - C) - Sneaky under the radar pick. Had 41 points, including 12 PPP in 62 games last year.

    22. (281) Jimmy Hayes (Bos - RW) - Thought I was taking Kevin...kidding of course! Really wanted Gardiner, but Austin Wallace scooped him with the pick right in front of mine. Hayes has a shot at 40 points, 160 hits and 10-12 PPP.

    23. (292) Jason Garrison (TB - D) - Only had 26 points, but was plus-27 and contributed 11 PPP. One injury and he's on PP1. Scary because he's only my 6th D, YIKES!

    24. (307) Trevor Daley (Chi - D) - Grasping at straws here, 16 goals, 38 points in 68 games last year. Not likely to repeat in Chicago, but is 35 points too much to ask?

    25. (318) Kevin Klein (NYR - D) - My #8 D will be a multi-cat contributer, plus/minus and hits. He did record 9 goals, 26 points and 126 hits in 65 games while sporting a healthy plus-24.

    I wasn't thrilled to pick 6th overall, but my team will be exception in Goal, strong in Hits, big on hope and maybe a little weak on D. This is foreign territory for me as I usually load up on D. It just seemed that when it was my turn to pick, I saw several D with 40-45 projected points or a 60-65 point forward, often with nice hits or plus/minus numbers.

    Lots can happen from the draft to the final buzzer. Last year, I came away from the draft absolutely stoked. I felt like I aced an exam, yet I still finished second to some metaldude (Steve Laidlaw) relinquishing the lead in mid-March and never getting it back. Looking forward to getting underway!
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  8. #38
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    Default Re: 2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

    Thought this might interest you guys - will post for all leagues.
    I made up an algorithm called a "Reach Factor".
    It doesn't identify how good a team will be... but it compares where you drafted a player to their ADP (across 4-5 DobberLeagues) and weights by round.

    Each player gets a "Value" score calculated as:
    (B - A) / C

    A = ADP
    B = Overall Draft Position by Team
    C = Round (*This is a very subjective number, but it will essentially mean that a guy snagged one spot later than ADP in 1st round is same as a guy snagged 25 spots later than ADP in 25th round)

    For example,
    Say "5 for Fighting" drafts Johnny Gaudreau at #80 in 7th round. Gaudreau has an ADP of 101.3
    (80 - 101.3) / 7 = -3.0

    Attached are the team scores by this "Reach Factor" (positive being "value drafted", negative being "lots of reaches")

    +12.5 The Comish (biggest reach: Dougie Hamilton -3.4, David Pastrnak -2.1. Best value: Henrik Lundqvist +2.3)
    +3.5 Saturday Night Special (biggest reach: Kari Lehtonen -3.8, Ondrej Pavelec -2.8. Best value: Dan Boyle +2.4)
    +3.0 Laying the Law (biggest reach: Erik Karlsson -3.0, Jimmy Howard -2.1. Best value: Valeri Nichushkin +2.7*)
    +2.9 Daoust Dynasty (biggest reach: Kari Ramo -3.2, Filip Forsberg -1.9. Best value: Nicklas Backstrom +3.8)
    +1.5 Last Resort (biggest reach: Scott Darling -2.1, Kyle Palmieri -1.9. Best value: Mikko Koivu / Vasilevskiy +2.6)
    +1.3 Top10 finish (biggest reach: Corey Perry -2.9, Cam Talbot -1.9. Best value: Steven Stamkos +2.8)
    ...
    -3.5 Leblanc's Legion (biggest reach: Alex Stalock -4.4, Ryan McDonagh -2.6. Best value: Justin Abdelkader +2.3)
    -3.9 The Goods (biggest reach: Daniel Sedin -3.0, Kessel/Rinne -2.0. Best value: Chris Kreider +1.9)
    -8.0 5 for Fighting (biggest reach: Ryan Miller -4.2, Johnny Gaudreau -3.0. Best value: Joe Pavelski +2.8)
    -9.5 Holy Puck (biggest reach: Jamie Benn -3.0, MAF -2.6. Best value: Dion Phaneuf +2.5)
    -11.4 rizzee dizzee (biggest reach: PK Subban -4.3, Johan Franzen -3.4. Best value: Ryan Getzlaf +4.9)
    -16.8 Edler's Mind Tricks (biggest Reach: OEL -4.9, J.Johnson -3.4. Best value: Carey Price +1.8)
    -38.4 Contra Dictions (biggest reach: Connor McDavid -8.5, Voracek -6.8. Best value: Eric Staal +1.7)


    *Unsurprisingly, the top 5 teams have been mentioned the most as "favourites".
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Looks good Pengwin. I like being closer to the top than the bottom on some of these things.

    Just a quick nitpicky question. The final numbers won't change, but the reaches should be a positive, right?

    In your example,

    Say "5 for Fighting" drafts Johnny Gaudreau at #80 in 7th round. Gaudreau has an ADP of 101.3
    (80 - 101.3) / 7 = -3.0

    But if the calculation is ADP minus Overall draft position divided by round, it would be 101.3 - 80 / 7 = +3

    Like I said, the numbers won't change, just the integer, and a GM would want to be negative instead of positive. (Conversely, you can just change the formula to B - A / C).

    Writer of the weekly Top 10 column.

    12-team Keeper pool, straight points for forwards & dmen. Goalies get: 2 points per win, 3 per shutout, 1 point per assist & 1 point per shootout loss.

    League champ in 2013, 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022.

    Top 8 forwards, 5 dmen and 2 goalies count.

    We keep 15 players (any position) plus two rookies.

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    Defence: Hedman, Fox, Matheson, Thrun, Jiricek
    Goalies: Kochetkov, Talbot, Vasilevskiy, Campbell, Schmid


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    Quote Originally Posted by newfcollins View Post
    (Conversely, you can just change the formula to B - A / C).
    Yup, you got it right.
    Value drafting is getting a player later than his ADP... that's good value.
    So yes, Draft Spot (B) - ADP (A) is value drafted if positive.
    I'll fix that.

    [And just as re-iteration, the "Reach Factor" can mean little in a group of keen GMs.... though I think a really negative "Reach Factor" does suggest a team missed a lot of value and won't compete.]

  11. #41
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    Default Re: 2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Thought this might interest you guys - will post for all leagues.
    I made up an algorithm called a "Reach Factor".
    It doesn't identify how good a team will be... but it compares where you drafted a player to their ADP (across 4-5 DobberLeagues) and weights by round.

    Each player gets a "Value" score calculated as:
    (B - A) / C

    A = ADP
    B = Overall Draft Position by Team
    C = Round (*This is a very subjective number, but it will essentially mean that a guy snagged one spot later than ADP in 1st round is same as a guy snagged 25 spots later than ADP in 25th round)

    For example,
    Say "5 for Fighting" drafts Johnny Gaudreau at #80 in 7th round. Gaudreau has an ADP of 101.3
    (80 - 101.3) / 7 = -3.0

    Attached are the team scores by this "Reach Factor" (positive being "value drafted", negative being "lots of reaches")

    +12.5 The Comish (biggest reach: Dougie Hamilton -3.4, David Pastrnak -2.1. Best value: Henrik Lundqvist +2.3)
    +3.5 Saturday Night Special (biggest reach: Kari Lehtonen -3.8, Ondrej Pavelec -2.8. Best value: Dan Boyle +2.4)
    +3.0 Laying the Law (biggest reach: Erik Karlsson -3.0, Jimmy Howard -2.1. Best value: Valeri Nichushkin +2.7*)
    +2.9 Daoust Dynasty (biggest reach: Kari Ramo -3.2, Filip Forsberg -1.9. Best value: Nicklas Backstrom +3.8)
    +1.5 Last Resort (biggest reach: Scott Darling -2.1, Kyle Palmieri -1.9. Best value: Mikko Koivu / Vasilevskiy +2.6)
    +1.3 Top10 finish (biggest reach: Corey Perry -2.9, Cam Talbot -1.9. Best value: Steven Stamkos +2.8)
    ...
    -3.5 Leblanc's Legion (biggest reach: Alex Stalock -4.4, Ryan McDonagh -2.6. Best value: Justin Abdelkader +2.3)
    -3.9 The Goods (biggest reach: Daniel Sedin -3.0, Kessel/Rinne -2.0. Best value: Chris Kreider +1.9)
    -8.0 5 for Fighting (biggest reach: Ryan Miller -4.2, Johnny Gaudreau -3.0. Best value: Joe Pavelski +2.8)
    -9.5 Holy Puck (biggest reach: Jamie Benn -3.0, MAF -2.6. Best value: Dion Phaneuf +2.5)
    -11.4 rizzee dizzee (biggest reach: PK Subban -4.3, Johan Franzen -3.4. Best value: Ryan Getzlaf +4.9)
    -16.8 Edler's Mind Tricks (biggest Reach: OEL -4.9, J.Johnson -3.4. Best value: Carey Price +1.8)
    -38.4 Contra Dictions (biggest reach: Connor McDavid -8.5, Voracek -6.8. Best value: Eric Staal +1.7)


    *Unsurprisingly, the top 5 teams have been mentioned the most as "favourites".
    What this doesn't reflect is our categories. For example, I remember for a fact that Karlsson was the third best player to own for our league according to FHG, yet he's Laidlaw's biggest reach despite being drafted later than #3? I like the idea, but until/unless it's tailored to our categories it paints at best an incomplete picture.
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    Click here to read my weekly "Roos Lets Loose" columns, going live every Wednesday morning and consisting of a rotating schedule of a "forum buzz" column, a fantasy hockey mailbag, a tournament/poll, and an edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters: https://dobberhockey.com/category/ho...key-rick-roos/

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    Default Re: 2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    What this doesn't reflect is our categories. For example, I remember for a fact that Karlsson was the third best player to own for our league according to FHG, yet he's Laidlaw's biggest reach despite being drafted later than #3? I like the idea, but until/unless it's tailored to our categories it paints at best an incomplete picture.
    This formula would never reflect any league's categories.
    It's simply a comparison of ADP vs. Draft Position, with ADP being based on leagues with SAME or SIMILAR settings. (which it is, since the Dobber-Smythe & Dobber-Norris have same cats.)

    I've already stated it means little.

    You really don't have to go and completely discredit it with statements like "it paints at best an incomplete picture".
    Way to make a guy feel good about pouring a bunch of time into some number crunching.
    I had volunteered to share my Excel spreadsheet of draft positions with the writers - but perhaps it is unwanted.

    [As a "you didn't know" / "behind the scenes" item... myself & horrorfan & The Comish spent a good amount of time coordinating the leagues this year... some of which was for sake of analysis between leagues.]

    Signed,
    Sad Pengwin

  13. #43
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    Default Re: 2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Nice work. (not sure how many friends you'll make by doing a "worst pick" in every round! That's something I would do!!! LOL).
    The 2nd draft went last night - Norris.

    You writers did a good job pumping OEL's tires... because while I thought he went too high at #33 in your draft, he still went #43 in the Norris.
    It just takes ONE GM to want a guy badly enough and the reach happens.

    Other significant reaches in the Norris last night:
    Mrazek taken at pick #87 (while Howard fell to autoDraft at #158. In the EXPERTS, Howard went 133, Mrazek went 157.)
    M.Jones taken at pick #96 (he went #152 in EXPERTS)
    Lucic went at #63 (he went #97 in EXPERTS)
    Marleau went at #62 (he went #85 in EXPERTS)
    Saad went at #98 (he went #130 in EXPERTS)
    Sharp went at #53 (he went #82 in EXPERTS)
    I am happy not seeing any of my draft picks listed here! I want to thank you guys for all the draft reviews. I am watching all the leagues as the season continues. But for now, I will head back down to the "minors" (Norris Tier III).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Thought this might interest you guys - will post for all leagues.
    I made up an algorithm called a "Reach Factor".
    It doesn't identify how good a team will be... but it compares where you drafted a player to their ADP (across 4-5 DobberLeagues) and weights by round.

    Each player gets a "Value" score calculated as:
    (B - A) / C

    A = ADP
    B = Overall Draft Position by Team
    C = Round (*This is a very subjective number, but it will essentially mean that a guy snagged one spot later than ADP in 1st round is same as a guy snagged 25 spots later than ADP in 25th round)

    For example,
    Say "5 for Fighting" drafts Johnny Gaudreau at #80 in 7th round. Gaudreau has an ADP of 101.3
    (80 - 101.3) / 7 = -3.0

    Attached are the team scores by this "Reach Factor" (positive being "value drafted", negative being "lots of reaches")

    +12.5 The Comish (biggest reach: Dougie Hamilton -3.4, David Pastrnak -2.1. Best value: Henrik Lundqvist +2.3)
    +3.5 Saturday Night Special (biggest reach: Kari Lehtonen -3.8, Ondrej Pavelec -2.8. Best value: Dan Boyle +2.4)
    +3.0 Laying the Law (biggest reach: Erik Karlsson -3.0, Jimmy Howard -2.1. Best value: Valeri Nichushkin +2.7*)
    +2.9 Daoust Dynasty (biggest reach: Kari Ramo -3.2, Filip Forsberg -1.9. Best value: Nicklas Backstrom +3.8)
    +1.5 Last Resort (biggest reach: Scott Darling -2.1, Kyle Palmieri -1.9. Best value: Mikko Koivu / Vasilevskiy +2.6)
    +1.3 Top10 finish (biggest reach: Corey Perry -2.9, Cam Talbot -1.9. Best value: Steven Stamkos +2.8)
    ...
    -3.5 Leblanc's Legion (biggest reach: Alex Stalock -4.4, Ryan McDonagh -2.6. Best value: Justin Abdelkader +2.3)
    -3.9 The Goods (biggest reach: Daniel Sedin -3.0, Kessel/Rinne -2.0. Best value: Chris Kreider +1.9)
    -8.0 5 for Fighting (biggest reach: Ryan Miller -4.2, Johnny Gaudreau -3.0. Best value: Joe Pavelski +2.8)
    -9.5 Holy Puck (biggest reach: Jamie Benn -3.0, MAF -2.6. Best value: Dion Phaneuf +2.5)
    -11.4 rizzee dizzee (biggest reach: PK Subban -4.3, Johan Franzen -3.4. Best value: Ryan Getzlaf +4.9)
    -16.8 Edler's Mind Tricks (biggest Reach: OEL -4.9, J.Johnson -3.4. Best value: Carey Price +1.8)
    -38.4 Contra Dictions (biggest reach: Connor McDavid -8.5, Voracek -6.8. Best value: Eric Staal +1.7)


    *Unsurprisingly, the top 5 teams have been mentioned the most as "favourites".
    I definitely find this interesting. Whether or not this accurately encapsulates who got the best value is up for debate but everything is when it's preseason. I think the guys who would get the most from this analysis are the ones drafting in the pro and entry divisions who may not have as much experience and need more validation so I'd encourage you to provide it for them if that was your intent.
    Follow me on Twitter@SteveLaidlaw

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  15. #45
    Location
    Prairies
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    Dobber Sports Demi-God

    Default Re: 2015/16 DobberHockey Experts League!

    Updated "Reach Factor" based on all four Dobber league drafts:
    [Most Negative Value means a lot of players taken well before their ADP.]

    +7.9 Sat Night Special
    ...
    +3.6 The Comish
    +2.3 Laying the Law
    +0.9 Daoust Dynasty
    -0.4 The Goods
    -1.8 HolyPuck
    -4.0 Top 10 finish
    -4.3 Last Resort
    -6.2 LeBlanc's Legion
    ...
    -14.1 rizzee dizzee
    -15.4 5 for Fighting
    -16.6 Elder's Mind Tricks
    -30.1 Contra Dictions


    Interpretation in conjunction with Temek's Projected Standings:
    High in Temek Standings & High in Reach Value - suggests team value-drafted players wrongfully passed over by other GMs
    High in Temek Standings & Low in Reach Value - suggests team is reaching for the RIGHT players
    Low in Temek Standings & High in Reach Value - suggests team took bad players rightfully passed over by other GMs (ex. JVR)
    Low in Temek Standings & Low in Reach Value - suggests team is reaching for the WRONG players

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