Toughest Keep One Post: Schneider, Bishop, or Dubnyk- REPS FOR REPLIES

[Dobber]

Bishop is a Top 3 fantasy goalie, I don't think this is a tough call at all.

- - - Updated - - -

The difference between Bishop last season (.916 Sv%, 2.32 GAA) and Bishop the season before (.924 Sv%, 2.23 GAA) was three goals over virtually the same number of minutes. I think an improvement is well within the margin of error though his career averages of .918 Sv% and 2.37 GAA are safe bets. But if he's good for 38+ Wins and 4+ shutouts, numbers like that push him into top-five range because of how safe a pick he is.

In addition to this, he's a proven guy (two years now) and a young guy on a team on the rise. Great AND low-risk. Can't go wrong

[Avalanche_Ambush]

The difference between Bishop last season (.916 Sv%, 2.32 GAA) and Bishop the season before (.924 Sv%, 2.23 GAA) was three goals over virtually the same number of minutes. I think an improvement is well within the margin of error though his career averages of .918 Sv% and 2.37 GAA are safe bets. But if he's good for 38+ Wins and 4+ shutouts, numbers like that push him into top-five range because of how safe a pick he is.

Also worth noting is he let in 3 more goals, on 141 less shots then the previous year. But I honestly think you can't go wrong with either of bishop,dubnyk

[berni67]

Bishop, Dubnyk and Schneider. Bishop contract is in two seasons, so there is some risk but he is my #1. Dubnyk will have to show me he can be great a full season. Schneider will be my #1 in two seasons.

[skotchek]

I like Dubnyk.
I think the WILD are a strong team... 3 lines deep & still emerging, as the STL Blues have been for the last couple years.
I think we'll see them play really well around Dubnyk and they are a very defensive minded team.

I think they are a serious sleeper for President's trophy (most points in NHL).

Does the Wild's poor start last season concern you at all, or was it simply a slump combined with bad goaltending?

[Big Ev]

Dubnyk for me. Don't trust Bishop at all.

[joe jones]

I tend to agree with YzermansLegacy 's perspective. You will be able to draft a no. 1 tier goalie, so keepers should be used for potential future - Schneider's got the best prospects in my opinion.

[skotchek]

For those keeping track:

Dubnky: 7 votes
Bishop: 6 votes
Schneider: 2 votes

I think everyone's opinions have merit- which is exactly why i've come here for years. You can't get better fantasy hockey discussion than this right here. That being said, I agree with those who say that Bishop is the safest bet. That's hard to argue. He's proven, consistent, and you know what your going to get. Your getting an above average #1. On the flip side, I think the Wild are almost as stacked as the Lightning (I like the Wild's defense a lot) and Dubnyk, if the real deal, will be a bit better than Bishop be it because of natural talent, or a stronger team defense. After reading all of the great posts, the question of is a "bit better" worth the risk has to be answered no and Bishop should be the pick. I told you I probably would flip flop again!

Anyone else want to chime in?

[pmorrow]

I'll go with Bishop. TB are a force, Bishop will pile up wins and starts, what more do you want?

The Devils SUCK. Don't care how talented Schneider is, you can't ignore that team in front of him. They'll be terrible for years as they don't have a ton coming through the pipeline.

Dubnyk and the Wild are solid, but I think I like TB in the East more than Wild in the West.

[chuckcouples]

Can someone explain to me how Ben Bishop is more proven than Devan Dubnyk? Bishop has 170 NHL games played with a career save percentage of .918 playing 125 of those games with a team that finished with 50 more wins than losses. Dubnyk has 231 career NHL games played with a career save percentage of .914 playing 190 of those 231 games with the worst team in the NHL over the last decade.

When comparing goaltender stats I find it is very helpful to compare the goalie in question to the other goalies on his team. Looking back over the last 4 seasons Bishop was the 3rd best goalie in Ottawa, the 3rd best goalie in Ottawa/best goalie in TB (over Anders Lindback/Mathieu Garon/Cedrick Desjardins), the best goalie in TB (over Lindback again, Gudlevskis had better #s in only 1 game) and has similar numbers to his back Vasilevski in the most recent year. Over those same 4 seasons Dubnyk was the best goalie in Edmonton, slightly worse than Khabibulin (.02 GAA and .003 SV% or 1 goal different), downright terrible and, last season, he was the best goalie in both Arizona and Minnesota.

What do you expect the difference for Dubnyk between playing for a team that has given up over 3 goals per game over the last 4 seasons and a team that has given up 2.58 goals per game? I think if you account for difference in teams played for, Dubnyk has been a much better goalie than Bishop over their NHL careers and I would expect that to continue for next season and beyond.

[Pengwin7]

Does the Wild's poor start last season concern you at all, or was it simply a slump combined with bad goaltending?

Some teams really elevate their games when they believe they can be winners.
I don't think the Wild believed in themselves with the patchwork of goalies they had pre-Dubnyk (Harding, Backstrom, Kuemper).

Dubnyk won't be a .936sv% goalie again.
But he has had seasons where he's been .914 or .916.
I'd expect him somewhere between .915 & .920.
He can also be a workhorse goalie and play 65-70gp, winning 55% of those.

I'm actually a big, big fan of Bishop too. (These guys are both top 5/top 7 ish goalies for me this year behind Price/Holtby/Lunqvist.)
In a one-year league, I'd take Bishop ahead of Dubnyk, especially with Vas out for a few months to start season.
But one has to worry a bit about the TB cap crunch and the threat of Vasilevskiy in TB.

So... when we are talking "keeper", I want Dubnyk over (the better) Bishop.
[I think about this a bit like how Chris Osgood or Corey Crawford or MA Fleury or Jimmy Howard have held their #1 jobs for so long. Not exactly top echelon goalies, but without another threat, they became VERY solid keeper goalies to own. Now with Petr Mrazek in DET, Jimmy Howard should be a bit worried... and it might rock his own game - goaltending being a highly-mental position. I could foresee the same thing for Bishop & Vas, especially as Bishop feels his big contract season of 2016-2017 coming. This is Bishop's one big contract that will set him for life - for some goalies, the pressure of knowing that date is looming can eat them alive.]

[Big Ev]

Can someone explain to me how Ben Bishop is more proven than Devan Dubnyk? Bishop has 170 NHL games played with a career save percentage of .918 playing 125 of those games with a team that finished with 50 more wins than losses. Dubnyk has 231 career NHL games played with a career save percentage of .914 playing 190 of those 231 games with the worst team in the NHL over the last decade.

When comparing goaltender stats I find it is very helpful to compare the goalie in question to the other goalies on his team. Looking back over the last 4 seasons Bishop was the 3rd best goalie in Ottawa, the 3rd best goalie in Ottawa/best goalie in TB (over Anders Lindback/Mathieu Garon/Cedrick Desjardins), the best goalie in TB (over Lindback again, Gudlevskis had better #s in only 1 game) and has similar numbers to his back Vasilevski in the most recent year. Over those same 4 seasons Dubnyk was the best goalie in Edmonton, slightly worse than Khabibulin (.02 GAA and .003 SV% or 1 goal different), downright terrible and, last season, he was the best goalie in both Arizona and Minnesota.

What do you expect the difference for Dubnyk between playing for a team that has given up over 3 goals per game over the last 4 seasons and a team that has given up 2.58 goals per game? I think if you account for difference in teams played for, Dubnyk has been a much better goalie than Bishop over their NHL careers and I would expect that to continue for next season and beyond.

I agree for the most part. I think they're kind of similar to be honest. Bishop is a decent starting goalie, above average, but I think he will lose his job quickly in TB as they will need the cheaper (and better) option in net in a year from now. Who knows where Bishop goes after that but it won't be somewhere where he can get the same # of wins, most likely. Minnesota is a good team so Dubnyk will get the wins if he sticks.

[Kabonov]

I think i would rank them this way.
Dubnyck will get you what you need for your pool. Probably repeat last years stats or very close to it.
Schneider will provide you everything in top cats except Ws
Bishop - is his groin still holding up? He should get close to the same amount of Ws as Dubnyck but the rest will be under Schneider (SO is the unknown cat.)

[skotchek]

Can someone explain to me how Ben Bishop is more proven than Devan Dubnyk? Bishop has 170 NHL games played with a career save percentage of .918 playing 125 of those games with a team that finished with 50 more wins than losses. Dubnyk has 231 career NHL games played with a career save percentage of .914 playing 190 of those 231 games with the worst team in the NHL over the last decade.

When comparing goaltender stats I find it is very helpful to compare the goalie in question to the other goalies on his team. Looking back over the last 4 seasons Bishop was the 3rd best goalie in Ottawa, the 3rd best goalie in Ottawa/best goalie in TB (over Anders Lindback/Mathieu Garon/Cedrick Desjardins), the best goalie in TB (over Lindback again, Gudlevskis had better #s in only 1 game) and has similar numbers to his back Vasilevski in the most recent year. Over those same 4 seasons Dubnyk was the best goalie in Edmonton, slightly worse than Khabibulin (.02 GAA and .003 SV% or 1 goal different), downright terrible and, last season, he was the best goalie in both Arizona and Minnesota.

What do you expect the difference for Dubnyk between playing for a team that has given up over 3 goals per game over the last 4 seasons and a team that has given up 2.58 goals per game? I think if you account for difference in teams played for, Dubnyk has been a much better goalie than Bishop over their NHL careers and I would expect that to continue for next season and beyond.

This is a great post, and made me look further into Bishop's numbers as you did for Dubnyk. When Bishop was a Senator, he only played 23 games and averaged a .915 SV% and 2.46 GAA. The last two years on the Lightning, he improved to an average of .920 SV% and 2.27 GAA. His career numbers, which included 13 games with the Blues, is 2.37 GAA and .918 SV%. Over the past two years, he is the second highest in wins (barely beaten by Price), and has individual stats that are nearly equal to Lundqvist, so their is no doubt he is elite.

The X factor though is that this is my keeper, and Bishop's situation is far from ideal in Tampa with his contract up at the end of the season, and Vasilevskiy poised to take the #1 within 2 years. If Tampa is in the hunt, which I expect they will be, I can't see them trade their #1 goalie and go with a unproven (and blue chip) rookie deep into the playoffs . But this might be his last year in Tampa, and his value is certainly tied in large part with the top tier team he plays for. That's not happening with Dubnyk, he's signed long term. If Bishop was signed for another 5 years, I'd take Bishop and not look back, but he's not. Does this impact anyone else opinion at all on Bishop?

[Moses]

VOTE FOR CORY


Cory Schneider. He is the best goalie of the bunch. He is in a situation (now) where he will play, and play a ton.

[skotchek]

In a one year league I agree, but this is a keeper. Does Bishop's contract status and Vasilevskey concern you?