2015/16 Rocky Horror Roto Show

[temek]

Some recap regarding the predictions for this league and they were actually pretty good and significantly better than last season's predictions in comparison. Once again skater predictions were clearly better than goalie predictions which is pretty much as expected. Nightmare on Helm St, Halak Ness Monster! and Boneshifters were the biggest underachievers and Bjoogeymen, Hanzal&Getzel and Barried Alive the biggest overachievers respectively.

The table ended up kind of a mess, but I guess it's readable enough. If interested in messing more with the numbers or just generally want to see the spreadsheet you should check RHRS 2015-2016 Standings predictions.zip for further information.

	Proj		Final		Dif		Proj		Final		Dif		Proj		Final		Dif
Team	Pts	Rank	Pts	Rank	Pts	Rank	Ska Pts	Ska Rank	Ska Pts	Ska Rank	Ska Pts	Ska Rank	G Pts	G Rank	G Pts	G Rank	G Pts	G Rank
Nazem's Lot	147	1	136,5	1	-10,5	0	107	1	94	3	-13	-2	40	1	42,5	1	2,5	0
Hanzal and Getzel	109	2	134,5	2	25,5	0	83	2	100	1	17	1	26	6	34,5	3	8,5	3
Halak Ness Monster!	100	3	71	8	-29	-5	68	4	49	9	-19	-5	32	3	22	9	-10	-6
Boneshifters	93	4	70	9	-23	-5	66	7	64	6	-2	1	27	5	6	12	-21	-7
Natural Born Quiller	91	5	114	4	23	1	67	5	80	4	13	1	24	7	34	4	10	3
Bjoogeymen	90	6	124	3	34	3	74	3	96	2	22	1	17	12	28	6	11	6
Ogie Ogre-thorpe	86	7	97	6	11	1	52	9	61	7	9	2	34	2	36	2	2	0
Let the Right Muzzin	85	8	79	7	-6	1	67	5	55,5	8	-11,5	-3	18	11	23,5	8	5,5	3
Barried Alive	84	9	101	5	17	4	54	8	71	5	17	3	30	4	30	5	0	-1
Nightmare on Helm St	71	10	29	12	-42	-2	49	10	21	12	-28	-2	22	8	8	11	-14	-3
Big Ladd Wolf	69	11	68,5	10	-0,5	1	46	12	40,5	11	-5,5	1	22	8	28	6	6	2
GoalsPerry's Baby	67	12	67,5	11	0,5	1	47	11	48	10	1	1	20	10	19,5	10	-0,5	0
Average					18,5	2					13,17	1,92					7,58	2,83
Correlation			0,69	0,71					0,75	0,79					0,44	0,43

[Pengwin7]

Nice work. I opened up the zip and took a poke around. It's solid planning that you do!!! You're a bright man!
Well - with no hockey, I'll have to start re-visiting my initial team draft threads and see what went right and what went wrong.

[Pengwin7]

A review of my start-of-year draft manifesto:
1. Temek was the league winner. Back-to-back for him. Just another great year.
2. Eff the goalies, I sure did. I actually halted my goalie starts at 160/164 and secured 2nd in GAA and 7th in SV%... but my goalies' teams weren't winners (8th-ish) and several times they got pulled and finished low in SV (a cat I hate).
3. I never did get around to depleting centers in the draft - didn't matter. I won FOW and got adequate scoring from my C.

By round:
1 Pavelski (9). It's always nice when your 1st round choice could be justified. Joe Pavelski was the best of the options at my #9 overall draft slot. He finished as #6 overall skater behind PatKane, OV, Benn, Burns, & Sid. With his 147 hit and 516 FOW from LW/RW... I'd say he may have even been more valuable than Benn.

2 Byfuglien (16). Buff finished at #18 overall. And I even flexed him into my RW for the last 2mo, which allowed me to win BLK (by 1).

3 Letang (33). Letang finished at #13 overall - which was super impressive considering he had an absolutely brutal first two months.

4 Zetterberg (40). My big whiff. Z was actually a top 50 player through the first two months and then hit a wall finishing #125 overall. When him & Dats sputtered, he actually stopped getting FOW and didn't get back to scoring. His first season well off a PPG pace. Terrible. Temek actually got his hands on Burns inside the turn... if Burns had fallen, good mercy, it could've been my year - but temek is too smart for that. What a year by Burns, finishing as the #4 overall player. How many teams won their ROTO with Burns on roster!

5. Doughty (57). Doughty finished #31 overall + HIT/BLK bonus. Having three of the bix six D men this year was an enormous boost to my team value.

6. Steen (66). I love Alex Steen. He was #41 by avg, but missed a good chunk of time. He had 21 PPP and token FOW - a very nice value player who might be availabe at the #80-#90 range next year due to inj-shortened stats.

7. Kesler (81). Kesler was similar to Letang, awful through two months and then hit a gear. He finished #69 overall, making for six of my top seven picks to be high value picks.

PICKS fell APART about HERE

8. Hartnell (88). I had enough grit mid-season so I swapped Hartnell for TJ Oshie. Turned out I got the better side as Hartnell hit a 2nd half-wall, but I needed more scoring at this slot - pick could've been better.

9. Stepan (105). I just couldn't get a full year from any forward not named Pavelski. Stepan was awful in 2015 and very good in 2016. Injury portion missed as well.

10. Bjugstad (112). See Stepan, Derek. Hit & miss throughout the year. Just not enough offense and eventually Trochek became the FLA C2, totally squashing Bjug's offense. Barkov at #213 was the big prize. I reached too much here.

11. H.Sedin (129). Sedin finished around Y~ 125. Not bad, I needed some A & PPP at that point. It was an OK pick.

12. Mike Green (136). What a shit. I ended up dropping him in early 2016... wasn't even providing PPP and very little grit.

13. Mika Zibanajed (153). He was here & there all season, whenever Turris did anything, Ziba did nothing.

14/15/16. Hiller, Mrazek, Pavelec. Hiller & Pavelec were awful. Mrazek was dynamite. 1 for 3 on goalies ain't gonna get it done. Specifically Hiller, worst goalie in NHL probably this year behind a good CGY. I suck at goalies.

Rounds #17-#25... I just didn't find any gems in my draft.
Temek nabbed Kyle Palmieri and Artemi Panarin in most of his leagues.
horrorfan got good seasons from M.Koivu, Hanzal, Doan, and Henrique.
I just didn't have that "gem"... and you have to have one to play with the top teams.

Overall - it was a very steady year. 3rd place is pretty solid in this GM group.
I met my goals of taking all peripheral categories: 12/12 in PIM, FOW, HIT, BLK.
And to do well in peripherals and still finish 11/12 in A and 10/12 in PPP is mighty fine.
My goalie WIN-RATE (5/12) and SV-RATE (4/12) was just lacking. I'm not a "goalie guy"... never have had that touch in fantasy hockey.
I draft shitty goalies and pray. Maybe I'll figure it out one of these years.

I've now finished 2nd/3rd/2nd/3rd in my 4 seasons.
One of these years I'll figure out goalies... one of these years.

Self-Grades:
Draft: B+
In-Year Add/Drops/Trade: B+ (I got some good stats from jumping on John Gibson-ANA and Matt Murray-PIT... but I rode the CGY goalies too long... to many losses)
Luck: Not Graded, but I didn't have any major injuries... so that's good.
Overall: B+. Very good, just not elite. THIRD PLACE.

1. Be wary the Temek. The force to be reckoned with in this league is Temek, who not only has great strategy & number skills but a great hockey sense. He drafts twice inside the turn of my picks – so I must “reach” for under-ranked players on my ODD round picks and also watch his roster to see what positions might slide past him & other “insider pickers” in later rounds.

2. Eff the goalies. Unless Price falls to me in the 1st round at pick #9, I’m not touching a goalie for the first 8 rounds. I’m going to hammer away on skaters. I believe there is that rising goalie every year – and I just have to identify him before others. Last year, it was Dubnyk & Hammond. Had I scooped Dubnyk (he went to MIN on my effin car drive home), I would have won the league.

3. Deplete the centers. I tried this tactic last year and it worked very well. There were scraps left for FOW and some teams were left choosing between inferior guys with FOW (i.e. Bozak) or good scorers at center that might not get FOW (i.e. Brock Nelson). Either way, I want my 4C to be legit boss players. And we do roster 12F this year… which raises the value of top end forwards as compared to previous years.

Round-By-Round Strategy.

Round 1 (009) & Round 2 (016).
Always map out your first two picks. Here are mine: 1.OV, 2.Crosby, 3.Tavares, 4.Giroux, 5.Seguin, 6.Benn, 7.Stamkos, 8.Price, 9.Pavelski, 10.Malkin, 11.Byfuglien, 12.Karlsson, 13.N.Backstrom…

Round 3 (033) & Round 4 (040).
...but I’d still like to get a D-anchor and another wing-eligible center. For D, I’m hoping either Weber/Letang/Burns are here.

Round 5 (057) & Round 6 (064).
Both Doughty & OEL will be on my radar here if they are still here. But the guy that alludes me every year is Alex Steen – who finished ranked as #37 & #32 overall the last two years.

Round 9 (105) & Round 10 (112).
Being a league that counts SV… I have no problem targeting the shitty goalies who get shelled… Toronto included – but I won’t draft those guys now. [POST DRAFT NOTE: I went with Stepan... and realizing I hadn't any other C only - reached for Nick Bjugstad, naming my team Bjoogeymen.

Round 11 (129) & Round 12 (136).
Two guys I’m especially keen on the young Bjug and Mika Zibanajed, who as OTT’s C2 are two young FOW taking centers that HIT. Even though Zibby is at Yahoo! #264, his FOW from the RW make him insanely valuable here and I will reach bigtime to land him. [POST DRAFT NOTE: Henrik Sedin and Mike Green still on the board, didn't expect that, thank you ma'am.]

Round 13 (153) & Round 14 (160).
Two more centers I’ll look to are David Krejci (Y 183) and Mike Ribeiro (Y 227). Yes, I feel dirty considering Ribeiro, but there’s no denying his draft-value at this point. Pominville (Y 179) & Abdelkader (Y 223) are also ranked much, much too low. Andrej Sekera as EDM PP QB1 at Yahoo 182 is a steal too… though I’m not sure he’ll be here. If I need a D, I’ll target him.

[POST DRAFT NOTE: Drafted Zibanajed here, couldn't wait with guys being reached... and took my first goalie, Hiller.]

The finished team, Bjoogeymen.
C(4): Stepan(9), Bjugstad(10), H.Sedin(11), B.Sutter(21)
LW(4): Pavelski(1), Zetterberg(4), Steen(6), Hartnell(8)
RW(4): Kesler(7), Zibanajed(13), Gaborik(17), Niederreiter(19)
D(6): Buff(2), Letang(3), Doughty(5), Green(12), Sekera(20), Beauchemin/stream(24)
G: Hiller(14), Mrazek(15), Pavelec(16), Hutchinson(23)

Bench: Drouin(22) & Dano(18)* he'll have to wait for W-eligibility before I use him,

Projected finish: 2nd.
Love my skaters, as I usually do... but the goalies are a huge wild card.
I've got 82 WPG starts behind a great WPG D... other 82 need to come from Hiller/Mrazek... I think there's enough there, question is whether SV & SO and peripherals will be there.

[4T2]

Congrats temek! And huge props to horrorfan. You guys had terrific years and it was exciting to watch the finish.

Always love reading your analysis on your teams Pengwin (and everyone else in this league for that matter). I'll do a quick rundown of my own for my team Barried Alive.

1. Sydney Crosby (2) - Solid second half after an abysmal start. 85 points out of Crosby isn't really all that bad given the scoring state of the NHL these days. He finished as 5th overall ranked skater and I don't think anyone would have suggested drafting Patrick Kane or Jamie Benn (or especially Brent Burns) over Crosby. As much as I wonder where I would have ended up if he had lit it up all season, points weren't really my downfall this year.

2. Jonathan Quick (23) - This was a panic pick for me as my goalie queue had been depleted but Quick finished 23rd ranked when it was all said and done so I guess that worked out.

3. Jakub Voracek (26) - Yuck... 74th overall skater out of my third round pick, at least he picked it up for the second half. No wonder that between he and Crosby I was languishing in the bottom half of the league for so long.

4. Patrick Kane (47) - Well I knew this was a home run the second I clicked "Draft"... but I didn't expect it to be a grand slam. 1st overall skater and the main reason I finished first (and set all-time season records) in Assists and Points (4th in goals).

5. Victor Hedman (50) - Finished 87th overall... would have been much better off drafting a goalie at this point.

6. Filip Forsberg (71) - Finished 29th overall... takes a bit of the sting out of the Voracek pick.

7 - 9. Pietrangelo/Mason/Barrie - Took all these guys a few rounds too early.

10 - 12. Bobby Ryan/Kunitz/Niemi were all pretty decent value here.

After that it was a mishmash of hits and misses. Krejci (146) finished at 89th. Marchand (170) was a huge win finishing at 16th. Beleskey (242) finished at 156. Hertl (266) finished at 119.

The only significant waiver wire snag I made was getting Neuvirth at the beginning of the season. If I hadn't, I probably would have completely tanked in the goalie categories and finished much lower in the standings. Seth Jones and Alex Wennberg helped with my late season push but weren't huge difference makers.

Trading Niemi for Lucic on February 9th was a great move for me but unfortunately was a little too late in the season to allow me to catch up in gritty categories. The fact that he only amassed 13 PIM for me in 30 games didn't help either.

All in all I'm pretty happy with my season. Anything in the top-half of this league is a great accomplishment. It's my second best finish in the RHRS (had 4th in 2013) and a step forward from my disappointing 8th last season. Next year I will be getting a medal... mark my words.

Thanks for another great year guys! Here's to many more.

[horrorfan]

Final standings - April 11, 2016. Congrats to temek for the win! That's a second consecutive title, and the first multiple winner in the league's five-year existence.

[horrorfan]

Oh so nearly this season but happy with my performance anyway.

What the heck - let's have a look back and comment on my picks and analysis post-draft:

***

Newly named Hanzal and Getzel. My first round was from the 8 spot. Here's how the draft went:

Round 1. Benn. Was hoping Giroux would drop but I figured he was too valuable not to go earlier. Didn't expect Benn to drop so happy with this pick. Hope he's healthy to start the season.

No complaints. He performed as I expected and clearly off-season surgery didn't hamper him at all.

Round 2. Getzlaf. In my pre-draft preparation I had him down as a round two target and glad he made it to me.

A disappointing start but made up for it enough so it wasn't that bad a pick, just not quite at the value at that point of the draft.

Round 3. Fleury. I had planned to grab my first goalie here and was hoping one of Fleury, Crawford, or even Schneider would be here. Happy with this one.

Aside from the injuries, he performed well as my anchor.

Round 4. Perry. Surprised he fell this far. I had other guys in mind earlier on but as he kept falling I thought it would be great if I could pair him up with Getzlaf.

Like Getzlaf, a slow start but made up for it with a solid across-the-board performance.

Summary: After four rounds I have a top C,L,R and G, covering multiple categories. Good balance so far.

Round 5. Giordano. I was thinking of grabbing my second goalie here, if Andersen made it to me. He went two spots before me so figured I could wait a round and decided to grab my first defenseman. On a per game basis, Giordano is a solid as it comes so hopefully he can remain healthy for most of the season.

Like the Anaheim duo, Giordano started off very poorly but boy did he ever make up for it to put together a career year.

Round 6. Luongo. I might have managed waiting a bit longer but Luongo is a good #2 to complement Fleury. Hopefully Florida will surprise a bit and Luongo's wins increase to go along with solid peripherals.

I expected him to be solid but he exceeded my expectations and definitely solidified my goaltending for most of the season, aside from that late season blip.

Round 7. Turris. I wanted a centre who could still improve, with solid SOG and FOW. Turris fits this perfectly. If he can at least match last year's production then I feel this is a good pick here.

Shame a solid start turned into a very disappointing one, cut short by injury. No complaints about that pick at the time.

Round 8. Little. Having at least one centre with winger eligibility is key to compete in FOW and Little brings a little bit of everything. Hoping this is another safe pick with the added FOW bonus.

Another solid performance cut short by injury.

Summary: After eight rounds I have 2C,1L,2R,1D and 2G. I still have good balance but probably need to look at LW and D next if the right guys are there.

Round 9. D. Sedin. As a Flames fan this hurts but at pick 104 I couldn't pass up on a guy who scored 76 points. His peripherals are lacking and he could start to decline but thought this was a low risk at this stage of the draft. Furthermore, with 'points' as an added category, he becomes more valuable if he can come close to last year's production.
Round 10. Seabrook. I figured I needed a second D and although there were more offensive guys available, Seabrook provides a good spread across the board including hits and blocks, which are key. Not sure if I could've grabbed him later but thought it was better to grab the guy you want when you want.
Round 11. Hossa. When healthy he's as steady as it comes, so I couldn't pass up on a veteran who keeps producing. As Mike groaned after making the pick, I was reassured that it was a good choice.
Round 12. Streit. Time to get a bit more offense on the back end and Streit is another steady option (I'm sensing a theme here). I don't expect a repeat of 14/15 but mid 40s with 20+ PPP and decent peripherals would be good.

Sedin had a strong start but faded like the Canucks in the second half.
Seabrook did exactly what I expected him to, with a bit of added offense.
Hossa was probably my first bad pick but of course the risk was there - as with many players in their mid-to-late 30s.
Streit - just think I could've had Klingberg here. Oops.

Summary: After 12 rounds the shape of my team is coming together. Here's how the rest went:

Round 13. Koivu. Not quite the sought after centre as years past, but he's still very strong on FOW with decent offensive production. A good #3 centre for my squad.
Round 14. Iginla. My all-time favourite player and figured it was a good time to grab him. He may decline but his spread of production is still useful as a mid-range RW.
Round 15. McDonagh. A bit of an unknown to me on what I expect his year but the potential is there to provide even more offense and solid peripherals. In the 15th round, that works for me.
Round 16. Wingels. Maybe a bit of reach depending on his usage this season, but if he gets more top 6 time and some PP time, he could be Brouwer of years' past, and that would be a bonus.

Koivu - performed as expected. Ok offense with decent peripherals including strong FOW.
Iginla - a bit worse than I was hoping - (-22 ouch!) but still decent pick at this stage of the draft.
McDonagh - had his moments but some dry spells and of course injuries hurt his value.
Wingels - miss. Worth a shot in case he got more offensive opportunities but it didn't pan out

Round 17. Hanzal. Another one whom I debated taking later but I think at this stage of the draft you have to grab who you want and need. When healthy (obviously his main issue) he provides modest offense with strong peripherals.
Round 18. Doan. A bit of a panic pick, as I wanted Stralman here, and he went two spots before me. I was lukewarm on others in my queue so figured if he has something left in the tank he could be useful in multiple categories.
Round 19. Ramo. Time to grab a third goalie, and he was one of the few available that has a shot to steal the starting job.
Round 20. Seidenberg. He's a bit banged up now and is a risk for regularly missing time, but with Hamilton gone he could get some more prime ice time and potentially more offense along with his solid peripherals.

Hanzal - solid when healthy but the injury bug hit as expected.
Doan - one of my picks of the draft and as you see above I called it a panic pick, ha! Solid all-round performance. Ranked #60 overall in Yahoo.
Ramo - oh well. Struggled, demoted, dropped then was ok for a stretch on someone else's team, and then mediocre and finally injured. Sums up the Flames' season.
Seidenberg - late round flier didn't pan out.


Round 21. D. Pouliot. As my #6 D, might as well take a chance on this young, potential star who could be put onto a loaded power play if Letang gets hurt again.
Round 22. Skinner. How far has he fallen? Low risk, potential high reward at this stage of the draft.
Round 23. Henrique. Wanted a bench centre and he could be an adequate fill in when required.
Round 24. Zidlicky. For my bench D, why not grab the guy just signed by the Isles and may end up on PP1? Yes please.
Round 25. Khudobin. No harm in adding goalie depth and if for some reason Andersen struggled, he could be the #1 on one of the top teams in the league.

Pouliot - see Seidenberg note.
Skinner - slow start so dropped him. Picked it up a bit on someone else's team(s).
Henrique - possibly my other pick of the draft. Slowed down a bit in the second half but his start gave me excellent depth, especially at wing with FOW.
Zidlicky - uh nope.
Khudobin - uh nope.


Summary: Pretty much as my final performance showed, I am very happy with this season. Only some temek guy stood in my way.