Gibson or Lehner?

[Jake44]

I have to keep one or the other.....who should it be? Lehner is on a rebuilding team with little competition for the No.1 job. Gibson on the other hand is a victim of the logjam in the Ducks system. That being said I have a small hunch Gibson will take over this year.....but it's a huge gamble. Our league only counts wins and shutouts with regards to points. I'm leaning on Lehner here because of the obvious No.1 factor, but really I am a fan of Gibson.....what to do? LOL

[PenguinHunter]

If you can keep Gibson on your farm team keep him there. but if there are no NHL goalies that you can pick up via free agency, it might be a rough year for you while you wait for Gibson to earn a spot.

If you are in win-now mode. then keep Lehner as mentioned he is more guaranteed starts.

[havanablast21]

I don't see Lehner chalking up many wins or Shutouts. I'd stick with Gibson and hope for the best.

[ericdaoust]

I don't think either one helps you in a win-now situation. I'd either go Gibson for long-term or try to make a trade for a more established #1 on a strong team.

[Goldendelicious]

Gibson over Lehner. If you're hell bent on win-now and want to keep Lehner, then you should be trading Gibson and getting a hefty return

[Nikerato]

They both have the same upside imo.

I don't know why people would underrate Andersen at this point. He got them to within one win of the cup final, and his stats throughout his entire career describe a legit NHL starter. Unless Andersen implodes completely, Gibson will be the Bernier to Andersen's Quick.

Until Gibson is traded, I would take Lehner just because he gets the starts. Buffalo still sucks though so maybe only 20-25 wins for Lehner. I own him too, and if he goes on a run of like 3-5 wins early on, I'll be doing my best to trade him for a better goalie. If he doesn't, well at least he's an injury fill in and you can hope for a win or two; unlike Gibson who would merely be a trade chip of similar value.

[JHM]

You don't mention your CATS.

SAVE PERCENTAGE - In most instances, goaltenders on high shot teams, struggle to have strong save percentages. Crawford was an exception last year. Smith has had seasons in Arizona that are like this. Luongo has achieved successful seasons like this. Most do not. A Lehner has potential to be an exception. However, banking on this exception... so Save Percentage is almost assuredly a in favour of Allen, although I realize he had a middling Save Percentage last season.

WINS - A part time Allen will compete for wins with a full time Lehner.

SHOTS - this is almost assuredly a significant victory for Lehner. Buffalo was horrific in yielding shots last season (3233) while St. Louis was 6th in the NHL at 2429. Lehner looks poised to have many more starts than Allen. Even if the Sabres are better than last season, they have a long way to go.

SHUTOUTS - The Blues are traditionally amongst the league leaders. Thus, odds are nicely in favour of an Allen victory. If it's a large victory, then almost assuredly Allen has been wonderful.

STARTS - Lehner seems poised to assume the drivers seat in Buffalo. However, this isn't 100% assured, only highly probable. Thus, wondering for 50+ starts is reasonable. I don't remember Lehner having health issues. Allen remains in a 1A/1B situation, and seems to be the 1B option. However, at some point in time, this will swing his way. With 37 appearances last year, one can wonder that it swings his way this coming season. His competitor, Elliott, is not a true #1 goaltender in my opinion, but has certainly put up solid stats in recent years. We can speculate in various ways, how many extra starts Lehner will achieve. A victory of 20 seems to be the highest in my mind, with a chance that Allen actually achieves the victory. An injury to Elliott would almost be required for Allen to have the victory.

CAP - Lehner - $2,025,000 this year, with a cap hit of $2,225,000. Allen - $2,200,000, with a cap hit of $2,350,000. Both contracts expire next year. Thus, not really a factor.

AGE - Not really a factor.

PEDIGREE - Not really a factor. A pair of solid picks. Both have been on the slow, steady developmental path. I still wonder that Ottawa may regret trading Lehner.

LONG TERM VALUE - The Blues appear poised for a long run in the upper echelon of the NHL standings. Buffalo is clearly in a rebuild. Rebuilds sometimes progress reasonably rapidly (Calgary). In more instances, they seem to take a long time (Florida, Edmonton). Teams that rebuild quickly, more often than not, tend to be from desireable locations from the NHL players perspective, spend money, and are highly active in the trade market. Buffalo has never been considered a highly desireable location, from a players perspective (in my opinion). Nor are the Sabres traditionally a big spender (some exceptions in recent times - Ehrhoff, Leino, Myers...). I still favour the Buffalo rebuild style to be 'conservative'. The Blues farm team/drafting continues to produce NHLers. Buffalo hasn't been as famous for their success in this regard, in recent times.

In most formats, I suspect that I select Allen, and hope that he finally breaks through to full blown starter, on the vastly superior team.

[ericdaoust]

You don't mention your CATS.

In the first post he clearly mentions it's wins and shutouts.

I have to keep one or the other.....who should it be? Lehner is on a rebuilding team with little competition for the No.1 job. Gibson on the other hand is a victim of the logjam in the Ducks system. That being said I have a small hunch Gibson will take over this year.....but it's a huge gamble. Our league only counts wins and shutouts with regards to points. I'm leaning on Lehner here because of the obvious No.1 factor, but really I am a fan of Gibson.....what to do? LOL

[mounD]

You don't mention your CATS.

SAVE PERCENTAGE - In most instances, goaltenders on high shot teams, struggle to have strong save percentages. Crawford was an exception last year. Smith has had seasons in Arizona that are like this. Luongo has achieved successful seasons like this. Most do not. A Lehner has potential to be an exception. However, banking on this exception... so Save Percentage is almost assuredly a in favour of Allen, although I realize he had a middling Save Percentage last season.

WINS - A part time Allen will compete for wins with a full time Lehner.

SHOTS - this is almost assuredly a significant victory for Lehner. Buffalo was horrific in yielding shots last season (3233) while St. Louis was 6th in the NHL at 2429. Lehner looks poised to have many more starts than Allen. Even if the Sabres are better than last season, they have a long way to go.

SHUTOUTS - The Blues are traditionally amongst the league leaders. Thus, odds are nicely in favour of an Allen victory. If it's a large victory, then almost assuredly Allen has been wonderful.

STARTS - Lehner seems poised to assume the drivers seat in Buffalo. However, this isn't 100% assured, only highly probable. Thus, wondering for 50+ starts is reasonable. I don't remember Lehner having health issues. Allen remains in a 1A/1B situation, and seems to be the 1B option. However, at some point in time, this will swing his way. With 37 appearances last year, one can wonder that it swings his way this coming season. His competitor, Elliott, is not a true #1 goaltender in my opinion, but has certainly put up solid stats in recent years. We can speculate in various ways, how many extra starts Lehner will achieve. A victory of 20 seems to be the highest in my mind, with a chance that Allen actually achieves the victory. An injury to Elliott would almost be required for Allen to have the victory.

CAP - Lehner - $2,025,000 this year, with a cap hit of $2,225,000. Allen - $2,200,000, with a cap hit of $2,350,000. Both contracts expire next year. Thus, not really a factor.

AGE - Not really a factor.

PEDIGREE - Not really a factor. A pair of solid picks. Both have been on the slow, steady developmental path. I still wonder that Ottawa may regret trading Lehner.

LONG TERM VALUE - The Blues appear poised for a long run in the upper echelon of the NHL standings. Buffalo is clearly in a rebuild. Rebuilds sometimes progress reasonably rapidly (Calgary). In more instances, they seem to take a long time (Florida, Edmonton). Teams that rebuild quickly, more often than not, tend to be from desireable locations from the NHL players perspective, spend money, and are highly active in the trade market. Buffalo has never been considered a highly desireable location, from a players perspective (in my opinion). Nor are the Sabres traditionally a big spender (some exceptions in recent times - Ehrhoff, Leino, Myers...). I still favour the Buffalo rebuild style to be 'conservative'. The Blues farm team/drafting continues to produce NHLers. Buffalo hasn't been as famous for their success in this regard, in recent times.

In most formats, I suspect that I select Allen, and hope that he finally breaks through to full blown starter, on the vastly superior team.

I just wanted to briefly address the bolded section. Buffalo is a fantastic place to play hockey, and I say this is a dude from Pittsburgh. Buffalo is a hockey town through and through, and a really great sports city (see: Buffalo Bills) overall. Guys are definitely not averse to playing / living there, as it's a great family friendly city and it's not like it's the boonies or something. It's a first-class metropolis, despite not being NY, LA, or something along those lines of course. And as far as the Sabres having a "conservative" rebuild, that's totally not the case at all. They went out with bold trades and acquired Evander Kane, O'Reilly, Lehner, and it seems like the playoffs are a real possibility this season -- provided a lot of things go right for the club. But they're not slow-rolling this rebuild, they are definitely going for it starting now. Terry Pegula is a super duper loaded owner, and he's a seriously big spender. Buffalo will be a cap team, and ultimately a pretty solid "destination" for players in a few seasons time. This is a first-class franchise playing in a really nice Northeastern city that's a really sophisticated hockey town. Guys love to play there, and the owner is an aggressive, rich guy who desperately wants to win.

[Big Ev]

I just wanted to briefly address the bolded section. Buffalo is a fantastic place to play hockey, and I say this is a dude from Pittsburgh. Buffalo is a hockey town through and through, and a really great sports city (see: Buffalo Bills) overall. Guys are definitely not averse to playing / living there, as it's a great family friendly city and it's not like it's the boonies or something. It's a first-class metropolis, despite not being NY, LA, or something along those lines of course. And as far as the Sabres having a "conservative" rebuild, that's totally not the case at all. They went out with bold trades and acquired Evander Kane, O'Reilly, Lehner, and it seems like the playoffs are a real possibility this season -- provided a lot of things go right for the club. But they're not slow-rolling this rebuild, they are definitely going for it starting now. Terry Pegula is a super duper loaded owner, and he's a seriously big spender. Buffalo will be a cap team, and ultimately a pretty solid "destination" for players in a few seasons time. This is a first-class franchise playing in a really nice Northeastern city that's a really sophisticated hockey town. Guys love to play there, and the owner is an aggressive, rich guy who desperately wants to win.

IMO it will never be and never has been destination for big free agents so they will have to keep trading for guys like they are doing. It's similar to Ottawa where we don't get free agents but basically everybody we trade for realizes it's a great place to play and they stick around. If they want free agents it will be the money that brings them in, not the city or the team.

but no, the playoffs are not a real possibility this season and the hockey ops probably don't want it to be either. They will still be bottom five no question.

[mojavedesert]

You don't mention your CATS.

SAVE PERCENTAGE - In most instances, goaltenders on high shot teams, struggle to have strong save percentages. Crawford was an exception last year. Smith has had seasons in Arizona that are like this. Luongo has achieved successful seasons like this. Most do not. A Lehner has potential to be an exception. However, banking on this exception... so Save Percentage is almost assuredly a in favour of Allen, although I realize he had a middling Save Percentage last season.

WINS - A part time Allen will compete for wins with a full time Lehner.

SHOTS - this is almost assuredly a significant victory for Lehner. Buffalo was horrific in yielding shots last season (3233) while St. Louis was 6th in the NHL at 2429. Lehner looks poised to have many more starts than Allen. Even if the Sabres are better than last season, they have a long way to go.

SHUTOUTS - The Blues are traditionally amongst the league leaders. Thus, odds are nicely in favour of an Allen victory. If it's a large victory, then almost assuredly Allen has been wonderful.

STARTS - Lehner seems poised to assume the drivers seat in Buffalo. However, this isn't 100% assured, only highly probable. Thus, wondering for 50+ starts is reasonable. I don't remember Lehner having health issues. Allen remains in a 1A/1B situation, and seems to be the 1B option. However, at some point in time, this will swing his way. With 37 appearances last year, one can wonder that it swings his way this coming season. His competitor, Elliott, is not a true #1 goaltender in my opinion, but has certainly put up solid stats in recent years. We can speculate in various ways, how many extra starts Lehner will achieve. A victory of 20 seems to be the highest in my mind, with a chance that Allen actually achieves the victory. An injury to Elliott would almost be required for Allen to have the victory.

CAP - Lehner - $2,025,000 this year, with a cap hit of $2,225,000. Allen - $2,200,000, with a cap hit of $2,350,000. Both contracts expire next year. Thus, not really a factor.

AGE - Not really a factor.

PEDIGREE - Not really a factor. A pair of solid picks. Both have been on the slow, steady developmental path. I still wonder that Ottawa may regret trading Lehner.

LONG TERM VALUE - The Blues appear poised for a long run in the upper echelon of the NHL standings. Buffalo is clearly in a rebuild. Rebuilds sometimes progress reasonably rapidly (Calgary). In more instances, they seem to take a long time (Florida, Edmonton). Teams that rebuild quickly, more often than not, tend to be from desireable locations from the NHL players perspective, spend money, and are highly active in the trade market. Buffalo has never been considered a highly desireable location, from a players perspective (in my opinion). Nor are the Sabres traditionally a big spender (some exceptions in recent times - Ehrhoff, Leino, Myers...). I still favour the Buffalo rebuild style to be 'conservative'. The Blues farm team/drafting continues to produce NHLers. Buffalo hasn't been as famous for their success in this regard, in recent times.

In most formats, I suspect that I select Allen, and hope that he finally breaks through to full blown starter, on the vastly superior team.

The original poster was asking about Lehner and John Gibson, not Lehner and Jake Allen. Otherwise, nice breakdown.

[tobias]

Gibson isn't taking over this year (of course, injuries can happen). They brought in Khudobin to be the backup so that Gibson can get full-time minutes in the AHL.

This year, Lehner will get you more wins and shutouts because he will actually be playing in the NHL. The nice thing about not having save percentage or goals against average in your scoring is that Lehner can't hurt you. Some feel like Buffalo is on the rise, so the wins will come, but likely not this next year.

Gibson is still a very highly touted prospect, and not someone who I would want to give up. He should have good trade value in your keeper situation, so I would try shopping him around first and see what you can get.

If you're in a win-now: Lehner.
If you're not: Gibson.

[Jake44]

Thanks a lot everyone. Not really sure where the Jake Allen thing happened but still a good read none the less. lol I ended up trading away Lehner to get 1st overall pick this year....obviously he was just a small piece, but a piece non the less. I am now stuck with Gibson which I really don't mind at all! Thanks again!!

[The Bottlenecker]

Thanks a lot everyone. Not really sure where the Jake Allen thing happened but still a good read none the less. lol I ended up trading away Lehner to get 1st overall pick this year....obviously he was just a small piece, but a piece non the less. I am now stuck with Gibson which I really don't mind at all! Thanks again!!

Lehner for the 1st overall pick....1st overall pick as in Connor McDavid first overall pick. You have to tell us the whole deal there because it certainly wasn't just for Lehner. And if it was, than "Super Kudos" to you, man.

BTW, I don't know where the Jake Allen portion of this thread came from either, but I had to go back and see the title to make sure I didn't miss something. LOL!

[Jake44]

LOL....oh geez no. I did get 1st overall pick with Lehner as a small piece of the trade. We have to throw back our top four pointers every year as seen in my signature. I will be targetting Crosby.

Lehner for the 1st overall pick....1st overall pick as in Connor McDavid first overall pick. You have to tell us the whole deal there because it certainly wasn't just for Lehner. And if it was, than "Super Kudos" to you, man.

BTW, I don't know where the Jake Allen portion of this thread came from either, but I had to go back and see the title to make sure I didn't miss something. LOL!