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Thread: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

  1. #16
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    Dobber Sports Blue-Chipper

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    Quote Originally Posted by temek View Post
    Decided to post my projections just for the interest sake to see how good (or bad probably) they are. There's the added benefit of not having my own team in the league which creates significant bias towards my own team. I assumed there's a dummy commish team which would finish dead last in every category so every team gets 9 extra points. You can clearly see what typically happens with auto-drafting teams (Humberside H) getting fairly strong skater lineup and absolutely terrible goaltending to go with it.

    Rank Team Skater pts Goalie pts Total pts
    1 Habs7079 53 37 90
    2 TBD 53 33 86
    3 5 Finger Dea 49 32 81
    4 Canuckleheads 49 26 75
    5 kluu 60 14 74
    6 Humberside H 67 7 74
    7 StanLee's_Cu 44 27 71
    8 Laendarian 58 11 69
    9 StaveOffElim 36 33 69
    10 Password is 42 24 66
    11 Leaf Nation 49 15 64
    12 Dead Things 30 32 62
    13 Phil The Thrill 34 21 55
    Looking forward to proving this wrong. I feel like I have a top 5 team based upon my projections.

  2. #17
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    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    Need to thank P7 and temek for making the effort to follow all the drafts so closely and provide nearly immediate (and always valued) analysis. Will be interesting to see how the projections pan out, but it definitely offers something fun to discuss and consider while we wait around until the first regular season pucks to drop.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blueman View Post
    Looking forward to proving this wrong. I feel like I have a top 5 team based upon my projections.
    For what it's worth, I have you ranked as top 5 too. Hard not to be happy with Seguin, Tarasenko, Byfluglien, and Letang and if even half of Kunitz, Perron, Yakupov, Maata, Hertl, or Gagner bounces back/achieves potential, your skaters are going to be scary.


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    Dobber Sports Blue-Chipper

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    My thoughts on those gambles as well as a bonus ramble.

    The Gambles:
    Olli Maatta
    Coming off a string of unrelated IR stints including the mumps and a shoulder injury, Maatta is back in Pittsburgh and ready to start the season healthy. Playing a regular shift with Letang and on PP2, I like his chances to rack up some points just by passing to the stars. 9 points in 20 games last year, I'm hoping for 30+ points, a good +/- and to stay away from the injury ward.

    Tomas Hertl
    Looks great in pre-season action, the knee surgery from last year does not seem to be an impediment. If he ends up playing with Thornton and Pavelski like I'm hoping, he could put up 30/30. New coach for a fresh start and he's also in a contract year for added incentive.

    Chris Kunitz
    Yes he's another year older and is coming off a down year. However, I don't think he's as bad as his 40 point season last year indicates, after completely sputtering in the second half. Playing with some guys named Crosby and Kessel give him an opportunity to get back over the 60 point plateau along with excellent peripherals.

    Sam Gagner
    Honestly not expecting much, but it's a contract year and am rolling the dice he shows enough to get an audition on Giroux's wing. If he does (and that's a big if) and sticks, then he could be in for a career year.

    Nail Yakupov
    Fourth year breakout candidate playing on an improved team. Here's hoping he can beat out the likes of Draisatl and an injured Purcell to play with McDavid. Biggest concern here is +/-.

    David Perron
    Love me some contract year players, especially those that will have a shot at top 6 minutes as a winger on the Pens. Pencil in a category stuffing 200 SOG and 200 Hits and this could be a Wayne Simmonds like stat line, albeit without the 20+ PPP's.

    Bonus Ramble:
    Jake Muzzin aka poor man's Byfuglien?
    Player 1: G: 18 A: 27 +/-: 5 PPP: 17 SOG: 209 Hits: 203
    Player 2: G: 10 A: 31 +/- -4 PPP 14 SOG: 173 Hits: 186
    Big Buff went in round 3 and Muzzin went in round 11. No Voynov, no Sekera, and on PP1. Pure value pick. Projecting 40 points, 175 SOG, 175 Hits which are well within reach.

  4. #19
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    Dobber Sports Apprentice

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    I consider Muzzin a great exapmle of getting the same points a tier below. I had considered him a cheap mans Drew Doughty! They have Doughty O=Ranked @ #50 and Muzzin @ 194.

    Drew Doughty LA - D
    7 G, 39 A, +3, 56 PIM, 17 PPP, 1 SHP, 219 SOG, 152 HIt

    Jake Muzzin LA - D
    10 G, 31 A, -4 , 22 PIM, 14 PPP, 1 SHP, 173 SOG, 186 HIT

    That is some huge built in value. Muzzin comes in @ 76 games played and 22 min TOI. If they do limit Doughty ( that Voynov thing/and cap issues screwed up the D rotations) You could see this pair being even more similar. However, Do not expect this to be a secret come next years draft because people are going to know by then!

    Steve

    ################################################## ################################################## ######
    EDIT: MUZZIN INJURED IN SUNDAYS PRE-SEASON GAME

    We did it! We are talking about players we drafted and them BAM they get injured!!!
    10 Team Yahoo Roto Keeper:Keep 6 each year
    3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, 5BN

    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, HIT
    W, GAA, SV%, SO

    Keepers in Bold:

    RW: Kucherov
    G: Helly

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    Dobber Sports Demi-God

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    November Update in the Tier III Norris Division:
    Rank Team Points Pts Change Pts Back Waiver Bdgt Waiver Moves
    1 StanLee's_CupofGlory 96.5 $81
    2 Breaking Ekblad 95 $86
    3 StaveOffEliminaton 94.5 $100
    4 Djaskin Unchained 90 $80
    5 Leaf Nation 86 $100
    ...
    ...
    6 Password is Taco 73 $85
    7 Phil The Thrill 72.5 $29
    8 5 Finger Death Prust 64.5 $49
    9 Humberside Huskies 60 $100
    10 avatar Laendarian 55 $89
    11 Dead Things 53 $77
    12 Canuckleheads 51 $90
    13 kluu 39 $61

    14 -Dummy Comish Team- 15 $100

    Absolute FIGHT at the top five teams all looking VERY strong.
    It will be interesting to see if anybody falls or rises to this peloton.

    Notable October Claims:
    $31 Leon Draisaitl to Phil The Thrill (Nov 2)
    $25 Michal Neuvirth to 5 Finger Death Prust (Oct 19)
    $21 Darnell Nurse to Phil The Thrill (Nov 2)
    $20 Anthony Duclair to 5 Finger Death Prust (Oct 19)
    $13 Travis Zajac to kluu (Nov 2)
    $13 Dylan Larkin to Dead Things (Oct 12)
    $12 Thomas Greiss to Djaskin Unchained (Oct 26)
    $11 Dale Weise to kluu (Nov 2)
    $11 Cody Eakin to Password is Taco (Oct 12)

  6. #21
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    Dobber Sports Blue-Chipper

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    I like keeping track of fantasy team Sh%, Sv%, and PDO throughout the season to get a sense how lucky teams are and how "real" the standings are, especially early in the season. Thought I'd post what I threw together in Excel for our league to date:

    Dobber Tier III Norris PDO.jpg
    Note: Sv% was calculated using an estimated goals against (GAA*Goalies GP) so it won't be an exact Sv% of the team, but still a good approximation

    Early on it looks like Dead Things and my team are seeing the short end of the stick in goal scoring, while Laendarian, Stave off Elimination, and 5 Finger Death Prust are getting killed with subpar save rates. On the flip side, Phil the Thrill and Kluu are converting on shots well above the league average, while a foursome of teams (Leaf Nation, Phil the Thrill, Password is Taco, and Breaking Ekblad) are receiving notably high Sv%. Obviously a lot of this could be due exceptionally good/bad drafting rather than just luck, but just like normal PDO, we generally should expect to see teams converge around the league average.
    Attached Images Attached Images


  7. #22
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    Dobber Sports Ace

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    Quote Originally Posted by habs7079 View Post
    I like keeping track of fantasy team Sh%, Sv%, and PDO throughout the season to get a sense how lucky teams are and how "real" the standings are, especially early in the season. Thought I'd post what I threw together in Excel for our league to date:


    Note: Sv% was calculated using an estimated goals against (GAA*Goalies GP) so it won't be an exact Sv% of the team, but still a good approximation

    Early on it looks like Dead Things and my team are seeing the short end of the stick in goal scoring, while Laendarian, Stave off Elimination, and 5 Finger Death Prust are getting killed with subpar save rates. On the flip side, Phil the Thrill and Kluu are converting on shots well above the league average, while a foursome of teams (Leaf Nation, Phil the Thrill, Password is Taco, and Breaking Ekblad) are receiving notably high Sv%. Obviously a lot of this could be due exceptionally good/bad drafting rather than just luck, but just like normal PDO, we generally should expect to see teams converge around the league average.
    Interesting to see that my team is almost exactly at the league average, at present. Good report - Habs.
    League 1: 2021 Dobber Entry (Patrick), Yahoo Roto, 10 Teams
    4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G start; 5 Bench
    Skaters: G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, Hits
    Goalies: W, Saves, GAA

    Forwards:
    C: Malkin, ROR, Backstrom
    LW: Forsberg, Parise
    RW: Gallagher, Hornqvist, D Brown, Kessel
    Dual Eligibility: Svechnikov, Jamie Benn, Radulov, Domi, Rakell, Pavelski
    Defense: Hamilton, Letang, OEL, Suter, Spurgeon, Girard
    Goalies: Vasilevskyi, Lehner, Mrazek, Reimer

  8. #23
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    Dobber Sports Superstar

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    I figure my higher than average save percentage was justified until Price went down. I'm sure it's evened out having to roll with Ramo/Niemi more often at this point. He can't get back soon enough....

  9. #24
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    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    Lots of movement in the top 7 or 8 in recent days. This is getting interesting.
    League 1: 2021 Dobber Entry (Patrick), Yahoo Roto, 10 Teams
    4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G start; 5 Bench
    Skaters: G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, Hits
    Goalies: W, Saves, GAA

    Forwards:
    C: Malkin, ROR, Backstrom
    LW: Forsberg, Parise
    RW: Gallagher, Hornqvist, D Brown, Kessel
    Dual Eligibility: Svechnikov, Jamie Benn, Radulov, Domi, Rakell, Pavelski
    Defense: Hamilton, Letang, OEL, Suter, Spurgeon, Girard
    Goalies: Vasilevskyi, Lehner, Mrazek, Reimer

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    The Wolverine

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    Standings update - November 30:


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    The Wolverine

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    A big trade processed today:


    Henrik Zetterberg Det - C,LW
    Mats Zuccarello NYR - LW,RW
    Kari Lehtonen Dal - G
    Traded to Humberside Huskies

    Brad Marchand Bos - LW
    Alexander Steen StL - C,LW
    Jakub Voracek Phi - RW
    Traded to Djaskin Unchained

  12. #27
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    Dobber Sports Apprentice

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    Starting a small climb back up, from 10 to 6. Still a long way to go!
    10 Team Yahoo Roto Keeper:Keep 6 each year
    3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, 5BN

    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, HIT
    W, GAA, SV%, SO

    Keepers in Bold:

    RW: Kucherov
    G: Helly

  13. #28
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    Dobber Sports Blue-Chipper

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    Definitely the most competitive season in this division yet. About half of the league has a reasonable chance of winning and what little separation there is between the top 2-4 teams and the rest is razor thin when it comes to raw stats.

    As strong and well balanced as Suvojitde's team has been (and will likely continue being) throughout the season, the team that looks best positioned to run away with 1st is Kofax's team. Still hanging at #2 with Price out and with lots of room for improvement in the second half from a quality top 3 D of Hedman/Giordano/Ekblad and at forward from Johansen, Spezza, and Nyqvist. That said, the standings are too wide open to crown anyone victor yet.

  14. #29
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    Dobber Sports Ace

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    It sure is tough going and so much fun....every single day counts.
    League 1: 2021 Dobber Entry (Patrick), Yahoo Roto, 10 Teams
    4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G start; 5 Bench
    Skaters: G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, Hits
    Goalies: W, Saves, GAA

    Forwards:
    C: Malkin, ROR, Backstrom
    LW: Forsberg, Parise
    RW: Gallagher, Hornqvist, D Brown, Kessel
    Dual Eligibility: Svechnikov, Jamie Benn, Radulov, Domi, Rakell, Pavelski
    Defense: Hamilton, Letang, OEL, Suter, Spurgeon, Girard
    Goalies: Vasilevskyi, Lehner, Mrazek, Reimer

  15. #30
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    Dobber Sports Apprentice

    Default Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Norris Division

    I am not sure if this is posted somewhere else or not?

    Could someone post a list that has the team names and owners as such:
    5 Finger Death Prust/ Hipcheck

    I am not sure who is who.

    Steve
    10 Team Yahoo Roto Keeper:Keep 6 each year
    3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, 5BN

    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, HIT
    W, GAA, SV%, SO

    Keepers in Bold:

    RW: Kucherov
    G: Helly

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