Re: 2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Smythe Division
Originally Posted by duntroon68
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I am going to try one of these draft review posts. I cannot imagine most care but I like reading them and I have never done one so...
1.4 Tyler Seguin. I had decided upon OV, Sid and Tavares as my first three choices, figuring I might get Tavares but then I started thinking about the centres available in the later stages and decided I wanted a winger. I crunched some numbers and settled upon Seguin over Benn or Giroux as more of his value came from offensive play rather than hits. Figuring hits are available later but shots, goals and PPP dry up. So I ranked OV, Crosby and Seguin.
2.25 Nicklas Backstrom. A week out I was thinking Holtby if he was there. Half a week out I had decided to go for Backstrom. Thirty seconds before my pick I was still debating. Holtby went 24 and I was saved the choice. Again I was trying to get a solid offensive foundation with a .97 PPG player over the last three years and plenty of PPP.
3.32 Taylor Hall. Again I had been thinking goalie but half a week out I started thinking about Hall. Another .97 PPG player over the last three years with 2.98 shots per game. Last year he was ranked around 20th with upside from there. Nothing really has changed except for one sub-par season. He rounds out my top line, as it were, allowing some flexibility later to take the best player rather than drafting positions.
4.53 Sergei Bobrovsky. In the original plan if Holtby was gone I was going Bobrovsky in the third round. Again the 23rd ranked Yahoo player last year and while injuries to his team and himself destroyed that nothing else has really changed. I wanted some kind of goalie in a good situation and getting Bob here seemed like a good idea. I think this was the latest he went in the four Dobber leagues.
5.60 OEL. This felt like a reach but I knew there were other players I wanted to reach for in the next couple of rounds and FHG had OEL 13th. Turns out this was the latest he was drafted in the four leagues so I don't feel as stupid as I did when I first drafted him. Lots of shots and hits. Crappy +/-. I always draft crappy +/-. That and ratio stats both in hockey and baseball. Counting stats just seem more real to me I suppose. Although +/- isn't as sticky as most stats. At this point I wanted a D plus I felt I needed to get some hits into the roster.
6.81 Evander Kane. One of the reaches that dictated OEL. I would have left him a round if I could have gotten Simmonds but he went one pick earlier. 2 fasth 2 furious was helpful like that all night long. Saved me some choices. When I was waiting on Bob earlier I had decided that if he was taken I was taking Weber. 2f2f helpfully left Bob and took Weber. Kane shoots and hits and is in a fresh situation where he is likely to get all the ice time he can handle.
7.88 Kyle Okoposo. With Lucic, Simmonds and Kane gone I took what was in the pool. I didn't put much stock in the theory that Okoposo will be phased out as Tavares' line mate because they might not sign him next year. Doesn't make a lot of sense to not use a player this year just because he might not be around next. Strome seems like he would be best suited to running his own line. Of course now Okoposo has barely played with Tavares so far but one, pre-season means little ten games in and two, Okoposo put up points when Tavares went down two years ago. He is a .92 PPG player the last two years and is still lining up on the 1st PP unit. I wasn't targeting him but I had him in mind if he was there.
8.109 Justin Faulk. He was a target. He went earlier in the other three drafts. I wanted the shots and hits and I planned to take forwards through the next few rounds as I liked several D after Yahoo rank 200. But I didn't want to go into 200 with only one D. Again I wanted to stay balanced early so I could draft best player late without worrying about position.
9.116 Radim Vrbata. Carter and Hornqvist were both gone. I figured I could wait on some later targets so I took the shots and PPP. Also I liked RW less after 200 than C, D or LW.
10.137 Tyler Toffoli. His /60 numbers for points and shots are excellent. He's done his time as a young player and may actually be trusted enough to get some more minutes. (I wonder if the fourth year breakout isn't so much because the player finally plays better as much as it takes that long for NHL coaches to finally learn the kid's name. Everyone wants to anoint young players in fantasy hockey but NHL coaches seem to hate young players. They like their veterans.) Also he slots in at all three forward positions. This is a bet that he'll get more time and continue to produce at his current rate.
11.144 Anders Lee. Last year his /60 numbers were good going into the draft. They are good again this year. He will likely play with Tavares or Strome. He shoots and hits a ton. This isn't a FOW league so the C only eligibility isn't so bad. Everyone here already knows these things if they read these forums.
12.165 Scott Hartnell. I wanted Strome here. Here's my statistical take on this pick. I draft Hartnell sometime after the 9th round and he provides 3rd round value. I hadn't really planned on him coming in but there he was. Kind of like Okoposo and Vrbata. PIM would make this more valuable but he hits, shoots and gets PP time.
13.172 Tyler Ennis. My reaches have passed and many of my future reaches have already been sniped. Ennis was just my favourite player on the screen. Much like many of my picks I figure he should be no worse than last year with a chance to be much better. He's got 2.5 shots and a hit per game in him. Playing with better team mates than last year should improve the assists and +/-. Maybe.
14.193 Martin Jones. I had looked at him last round but waited to see. I needed a goalie. I have heard both good and bad opinions of Jones' chances this winter. I had debated attempting the Dallas duo or Talbot but Niemi and Talbot went before I was ready so I took this last best chance at a starter. Hopefully he will be good and so will San Jose.
15.200 Erik Johnson. Now I wanted to fill in some D. I had a list. Muzzin, J. Johnson and Wiz all went in between Jones and this pick. Franson was long gone. So EJ. Last year's pro-rated pace was 40 points, 165 hits and 200 shots (unsustainable shooting percentage, yada-yada, I know, he had 39 points the year before). Hits and shots with a hope of PPP and points in general. He was in my list. I wasn't going to get them all and wasn't unhappy to get Johnson.
16.221 Kari Lehtonen. He was still sitting there. He might play 60 games. Or 40. Or 20. I wanted two starters and planned to grab two late back ups on good teams. But I thought this was a chance worth taking.
17.228 Alexander Edler. He's only 29. He has demonstrated that he can hit, shoot and score. He gets PP time. I needed D.
18.249 Elias Lindholm. Last year, 39 points, 106 hits and 170 shots. He is liable to do better this year. He wasn't a plan but Hanzal and Hamonic had just been taken and I clicked on the news box that quoted his coach saying things like "bigger and stronger" and "30 goals" and I needed another C or RW at this point.
19.256 Marek Zidlicky. Michael Del Zotto went just before this pick and my D list was running dry. Zidlickly had just signed with NYI and there is a promise of PP time. He hits just enough. He had been around the edges of my list but never on it until I made the pick.
20.277 Zach Bogosian. There are players in every draft that get you excited and then you draft them waaaay too early. But if you don't get them you're pissed at yourself. I may be an idiot but I wanted Bogosian and I managed to wait until the 20th round to take him. He went higher in the other three leagues. After joining Buffalo, he paced 200 shots and 325 hits. Yes, he's already hurt but so what. Bogosian and Kane are like twins and if they hit they could be huge.
21.284 Mathieu Perreault. The year before I noticed that his /60 PPG was excellent but I never really had any need to draft him. Last year, with more opportunity, he was on pace for 54 points, 17 PPP, 103 hits and 170 shots before injury.
22.305 Shane Doan. I realized I had 4 RW but no other options. I saw 189 shots and 189 hits. I ran out of other ideas. He has had spurts of excellent play the last couple of years.
23.312 Dmitrij Jaskin. I have liked him for a couple of years. He does hit. And he has some talent if he gets an opportunity.
24.333 Thomas Greiss. I still wanted another back-up from a decent team. I had targeted Darling, Raanta and Greiss. At this point I had to leave to get to work so I loaded some names into my queue and waited to see what I'd get.
25.340 Jason Zucker. Was on a 30 goal pace with a 17% shooting percentage. He had 5 assists to his 21 goals. By accident that assist total will rise. So of all the late round upside fliers this is the one I chose. Is 30-30 in him? Maybe. Likely not but he was getting 4 shots a game in the AHL and looks to play on the second line in pre-season. He could go all Tomas Tatar. Or not and I drop him for someone else.
So, as has been discussed a little bit elsewhere, I tried not to reach too much and I lost out on players that I wanted. But most of the time I wasn't too disappointed. I drafted players that I didn't plan upon because they were available and I thought I could get them at that point plus value later on. Many players that I drafted have room to be much better than they were last year. I tried to get three PPG forwards in the first three rounds. Then a quality starting goalie. A couple of D who shoot and hit. The middle rounds were forwards because I thought there was D and C and 40 GP in goal after round 14. I didn't draft huge hitters at all times but tried to make sure they weren't completely deficient. Many will get 80-100 hits this season. I tried to get PPP as much as I could. And shooters as when I could get them.
