2015/2016 Dobber ENTRY (Tier III) Smythe Division

[Brosive]

D'oh! missed the draft.. do you ever get any decent goalies in an auto select? i think not

[horrorfan]

Projected standings for Smythe

Assuming you're doing this for the Campbell who are drafting tonight, I'm looking forward to seeing the results as I will have to auto draft.

D'oh! missed the draft.. do you ever get any decent goalies in an auto select? i think not

If you create rankings and bump them up higher.

[Pengwin7]

Projected standings for Smythe

Rank	Team	Skater pts	Goalie pts	Total pts
1	2 fasth 2 furious	68	24	92
2	Streit Outta Compton	58	29	87
3	Barn Fights	49	33	82
4	Team Ramrod	59	20	79
5	Marko K's Rad Team	49	29	78
6	Ott Man Out	53	23	76
7	Yellow Dogs	49	22	71
8	Da Budz	43	26	69
9	Midgard Maulers	47	17	64
10	rainydrinkwater	53	11	64
11	Pylons	41	20	61
12	Mystery Alaska	27	30	57
13	In It To Winnik	28	28	56

As comparison, here is:
P7 "Reach Factor" Standings:

+15.2 2 fasth 2 furious
+10.6 Yellow Dogs
+5.2 Barn Fights
+4.1 Da Budz
...
+0.9 Streit Outta Compton
+0.1 Pylons
-0.1 Team Ramrod
...
-3.4 Ott Man Out
-14.5 rainydrinkwater
-16.1 Mystery Alaska (autodraft)
-18.9 Marko K's Rad Team (autodraft)
-19.2 Midguard Maulers
-34.8 In It To Winnik

[SuperMario]

Wow, I went first with Ovi and seemingly managed to muck it all up as per these predictions. Here's hoping it isn't that bad! lol

[Pengwin7]

Wow, I went first with Ovi and seemingly managed to muck it all up as per these predictions. Here's hoping it isn't that bad! lol

Your team is fine.
I actually liked a lot of your draft.

But a guy like Nichushkin... it's not like the sharks were circling in the water to get him.
A round 9 pick for him!
Well - perhaps he could become this year's Tarasenko... but he's easily a player that would've been there in round 16.

He went 18th round in both the Experts league & Norris division.

Two or three overdrafted player (like Yakupov) will really hurt your "Reach Factor" rank... but it doesn't mean you have a bad team.
Each team is bound to have 2-3 players go down with injuries anyways - so a mis-drafted player is about the same as being the first team to have a significant injury.
It kind of lowers your odds of winning, but it doesn't mean you can't.

[SuperMario]

Hah, I literally thought that to myself before hitting draft. "He could easily be this year's Tarasenko, and I can't be alone in thinking that. Just grab him before you wait one round too late and he's gone."

Not a perfect draft, but time will tell how badly I did I guess!

[yipper005]

2 fasth 2 furious checking in. How are those projections calculated? and same question for the "reach factor"?

Hopefully my squad lives up to the projections hahah

[Pengwin7]

2 fasth 2 furious checking in. How are those projections calculated? and same question for the "reach factor"?
Hopefully my squad lives up to the projections hahah

temek does his own projections for every NHL player each off-season.
historically, I can vouch that he does a pretty good job.

If you go to the Experts League thread, you can see the algorithm I just created today for "Reach Factor".
It basically gives a value to each player you drafted, relative to where that player might be drafted in other leagues (ADP).
(B - A) / C

A = ADP of player drafted in 5* leagues of similar categories (other Dobber leagues)
B = where player was drafted in specific league
C = Round (*this just sort of normalizes each player's value)

Here's a snapshot of the one I did in the Smythe, showing your (2fasth) team.
See attached .pdf

(Of note: Because there are only 4-5 leagues of data, it doesn't take much to SKEW "Value" of any player. For example, in the Norris, one team reached for Petr Mrazek at pick #87. This gives him a much higher ADP compared to other leagues where me might be picked around spot 200. So if you got him at 204... it'll be a nice "Reach Factor" relative to his ADP of 156.3... but the 156.3 itself is probably way too high, simply from that one guy that took Mrazek at #87.)


To get a high PLUS value on a player, it usually means that everybody in your league is passing on a player... who wouldn't be passed over in another league.
So there's good value in happening to pounce on a player looked over.

To get a high MINUS value on a player, it usually means ONE GM is drafting that player much sooner than he would go in another league.
I think the big MINUS... especially in rounds 3-20... probably a bad sign. (In the first couple rounds, the value can be skewed simply by the low round denominator or 1 or 2... but it may not be that bad.)

The worst MINUS occurs in the EXPERTS league, where somebody took McDavid (ADP of 31.0) at a round #2 spot of 14th overall.
That would be a Reach-Factor Value of -8.5 (31-14)/2... actually, would've been an even worse reach factor of -17... had it occured in 1st round. (The "Round" denominator isn't perfect... could be tweaked to be better.)

[yougo]

wow a +15.2 is pretty good. I like that I'm #2 in temek's prediction. I don't like that I'm middle of the pack with your Reach factor. Atleast I'm not negative!
Not surprise to see Yellow Dogs being up in the Reach factor, he was picking before me at every turn and almost always took the player I wanted.

[yipper005]

temek does his own projections for every NHL player each off-season.
historically, I can vouch that he does a pretty good job.

If you go to the Experts League thread, you can see the algorithm I just created today for "Reach Factor".
It basically gives a value to each player you drafted, relative to where that player might be drafted in other leagues (ADP).
(B - A) / C

A = ADP of player drafted in 5* leagues of similar categories (other Dobber leagues)
B = where player was drafted in specific league
C = Round (*this just sort of normalizes each player's value)

Here's a snapshot of the one I did in the Smythe, showing your (2fasth) team.
See attached .pdf

(Of note: Because there are only 4-5 leagues of data, it doesn't take much to SKEW "Value" of any player. For example, in the Norris, one team reached for Petr Mrazek at pick #87. This gives him a much higher ADP compared to other leagues where me might be picked around spot 200. So if you got him at 204... it'll be a nice "Reach Factor" relative to his ADP of 156.3... but the 156.3 itself is probably way too high, simply from that one guy that took Mrazek at #87.)


To get a high PLUS value on a player, it usually means that everybody in your league is passing on a player... who wouldn't be passed over in another league.
So there's good value in happening to pounce on a player looked over.

To get a high MINUS value on a player, it usually means ONE GM is drafting that player much sooner than he would go in another league.
I think the big MINUS... especially in rounds 3-20... probably a bad sign. (In the first couple rounds, the value can be skewed simply by the low round denominator or 1 or 2... but it may not be that bad.)

The worst MINUS occurs in the EXPERTS league, where somebody took McDavid (ADP of 31.0) at a round #2 spot of 14th overall.
That would be a Reach-Factor Value of -8.5 (31-14)/2... actually, would've been an even worse reach factor of -17... had it occured in 1st round. (The "Round" denominator isn't perfect... could be tweaked to be better.)

wow, thanks for putting in that work. I love reading about draft analysis and values.

[duntroon68]

Not surprise to see Yellow Dogs being up in the Reach factor, he was picking before me at every turn and almost always took the player I wanted.

Conversely I was often debating between players only to have Streit Outta Compton take the other one immediately after my pick.

I watch listed a bunch of guys ranked after 200 in Yahoo just to make sure they stayed on my radar. Compton took 10 of them. Ramrod took 8.

[rainydrinkwater]

Yup I have my work cut out for me here. Was on auto from something like rounds 5-20. Yahoo! draft room opening only 15 minutes before the draft buzzed me out too.

[PenguinHunter]

D'oh! missed the draft.. do you ever get any decent goalies in an auto select? i think not

I am in the same boat. no decent goalies or D-men. haha

[adalyfrey]

Always willing to talk trade (Barn Fights)

Happy with the draft (happier with temek's projections), felt I reached a bit for both McD & Eichel but mostly went safe after that (minus a reach for 2 hitters in Martin & Clutterbuck).

P7, unless I'm reading it wrong you put Melker Karlsson as an ADP of 6.0 so my Reach would be much lower.

[Pengwin7]

Updated "Reach Factor" based on all four Dobber league drafts:
[Most Negative Value means a lot of players taken well before their ADP.]


+14.4 2 fasth 2 furious
+9.9 Yellow Dogs
...
+1.2 Team Ramrod
+0.8 Da Budz
-1.5 Barn Fights
-2.9 Streit Outta Compton
-3.7 Pylons
-6.1 rainydrinkwater
-7.2 Ott Man Out
...
-13.4 Mystery Alaska
-18.6 Marko K's Rad Team
-26.4 Midguard Maulers
-26.6 In It To Winnik

Interpretation in conjunction with Temek's Projected Standings:
High in Temek Standings & High in Reach Value - suggests team value-drafted players wrongfully passed over by other GMs
High in Temek Standings & Low in Reach Value - suggests team is reaching for the RIGHT players
Low in Temek Standings & High in Reach Value - suggests team took bad players rightfully passed over by other GMs (ex. JVR)
Low in Temek Standings & Low in Reach Value - suggests team is reaching for the WRONG players