2015/2016 Dobber PRO (Tier II) Campbell League

[horrorfan]

Final standings - April 11, 2016. Congrats to jcairns on the title!

[Pengwin7]

Congrats to jcairns! Incredible season! (and thank you for being the one to show you can win without drafting a goalie in first 10 rounds!!! LOL, I wanted it to be me!)
Great season also by ccsitdown and clo-clo!
Hopefully we can invite you guys with several others to a Champions League in fall of 2016!!!

[jcairns]

Thanks both! That was a tough season. Really surprised I held on there. ccsitdown was surging late in the season. A few more weeks and he would have had me I think.

I gotta say, playing in these dobber leagues is probably the best way to learn some things and improve your skills. Tough competition and a variety of strategies. Super fun!

[temek]

To recap my projections for this league, they were pretty terrible honestly. Barely better than than saying every team has an equal chance and that's really bad even when it comes to projections especially as my projected standings are usually fairly good. Just goes to tell that no one should take projections too seriously, it's far from a destiny even if you have been projected to finish in the Bottom3 of the league. Skater projections were slightly better than goalie ones although both were pretty bad. Top3 were projected to finish in spots 6,12,5 respectively so pretty poor record there as well. Biggest overachievers relative to the projections were Vancouver Beavers and 2toRuutu2toTootooToo and biggest underachievers The 'Eh' team, Bautista's Aura and Fisher-Price respectively.

Check the spreadsheet Dobber Pro Campbell 2015-2016 Standings predictions.zip for more specific information.

		Proj		Final		Dif		Proj		Final		Dif		Proj		Final		Dif
	Team	Pts	Rank	Pts	Rank	Pts	Rank	Ska Pts	Ska Rank	Ska Pts	Ska Rank	Ska Pts	Ska Rank	G Pts	G Rank	G Pts	G Rank	G Pts	G Rank
1	Captain Cangiroux	76	1	75	4	-1	-3	60	1	53	3	-7	-2	16	10	22	6	6	4
2	Cannibal Staalocaust	76	1	75	4	-1	-3	46	3	38	9	-8	-6	30	1	37	1	7	0
3	Fisher-Price	76	1	53,5	11	-22,5	-10	46	3	36	10	-10	-7	30	1	17,5	10	-12,5	-9
4	The 'Eh' team	69	4	28,5	12	-40,5	-8	51	2	21,5	12	-29,5	-10	18	7	7	13	-11	-6
5	The Nickel City	68	5	78,5	3	10,5	2	43	8	48,5	5	5,5	3	25	5	30	2	5	3
6	Vancouver Beavers	63	6	94,5	1	31,5	5	45	6	72	1	27	5	18	7	22,5	5	4,5	2
7	Connor is Gone	61	7	69	6	8	1	46	3	53	3	7	0	15	11	16	11	1	0
8	The Jobbers	60	8	60,5	7	0,5	1	35	11	40	7	5	4	25	5	20,5	7	-4,5	-2
9	Savages	59	9	59	9	0	0	42	9	39	8	-3	1	17	9	20	8	3	1
10	Bautista's Aura	57	10	22	13	-35	-3	30	12	13	13	-17	-1	27	4	9	12	-18	-8
11	The Entertainer	55	11	60	8	5	3	45	6	42	6	-3	0	10	13	18	9	8	4
12	2toRuutu2toTootooToo	54	12	89	2	35	10	40	10	61	2	21	8	14	12	28	3	14	9
13	rattus rattus	45	13	54,5	10	9,5	3	17	13	29	11	12	2	28	3	25,5	4	-2,5	-1
	Average					12,69	3,23					10,31	3,15					6,38	3,07
	Correlation			0,11	0,15					0,38	0,21					0,24	0,17

[Pengwin7]

I don't really like my team.
I give my draft a C-... with a D for "strategy execution".
I do have a ton of forward depth... they'll have to carry me.
Goalies get injured - so if just one of Howard(DET), Ramo(CGY), Crawford(CHI), Lundqvist(NYR), Fleury(PIT), or Quick(LA) go down... I've got the next inline for starts.
Gonna do some serious praying on goalies though.

Projected finish: 4th / 13
My best hope... is that the balance of having such a keen GM group will allow somebody to win a tight league. (ah, in that regard, I don't miss temek )

Well, time for my recap.
I'll start... at the end of my start-of-season summary.

My projected finish: 4th.
I finished... tied for 4th.
I hated my team when I drafted it... and I did, indeed, hate it all season.
Player-by-player analysis in next post.

It was a very tight league in about February... a group of five of us where around 70-82pts... then some surged (Vancouver, Ruutu) and some fell (Giroux, Connor).
In the end... there was just no denying Vancouver Beavers.
The Beavers drafted an almost perfect first four rounds - starting with having CROSBY fall to him at pick #4!!!
And then he drafted Pat Kane in round 2 (23rd overall) and Brent Burns in round 3 (30th overall) and OEL in round 4 (49th overall).

Finish for those players:
Sidney Crosby - 5th overall Yahoo player.
Patrick Kane - 1st overall Yahoo player.
Brent Burns - 4th overall Yahoo player.
OEL - by "Average", 14th overall Yahoo player (3rd best D man by AVG)

[Pengwin7]

A player by player review of my team & strategy.

My team summary:
Captain Cangiroux
1. (9) Claude Giroux (Phi - C,RW)
Going into the draft, my own spreadsheet identified that the elite six D (Karlsson, Byfuglien, Subban, Weber, Burns, Letang) had such great "relative" value that I was prepared to take D in the first 4 rounds... maybe 5 straight if Doughty/OEL were there in the 5th. It became apparent later in the draft that several GMs had their eyes on FHG rankings and were sniping robotic picks - which means... I didn't have a chance. Karlsson went #2, Lundqvist went #6.

1. Well, if there was one thing I was right about... it was strategy... four of the six D man that I really wanted... and BOTH of the other two (Doughty/OEL) were absolutely incredible value picks this year. FWIW, a lot of teams were drafting with FHG rankings and the D-men simply didn't last. I cursed & swore as they went by. In most of my other leagues and PRO and ENTRY they slid a lot further. I got none of them and those that did reaped the benefits. My 1st round pick - Giroux - made it an enjoyable fantasy year because he's PHI and one of my favourite players. There wasn't a lot I left on the board. Stamkos, Subban, Malkin, all had spot injuries and none were really top 20 players, like Giroux. Had I reached for a goalie - Holtby was on the board - I would have been better off... but many know... that's just not my style.

2. (18) Joe Pavelski (SJ - C,LW)
The guy I wanted here was Buff - who went 19-29-24 in the other leagues, so I thought I could get him. I project Buff's full 82gp from a D slot to make him 2nd most valuable player in this format, near tied with Karlsson. Buff went 10th. 10th! Nobody takes Buff 10th unless they've got some data to peg him there. Ah fugg it. I have Pavelski about 10th-12th in this format, that's fine... and he's my 2nd fave player who racks up a ton of PPP.

Pavelski finished as the #6 overall Yahoo player. That ain't too shabby. For a #18 pick, no regrets on that pick.

3. (35) Jakub Voracek (Phi - RW)
I wanted one of Burns/Weber/Letang here, but the former two go before my pick. Last year's #2 overall player, Voracek, is still there. At #35. Can I really pass on this? Considering I have a vested interested in Giroux, I might as well double-down with Voracek and I don't want to let players slide. Fine, done, starting to hate my team.

Perhaps, I should've gone with my gut over my head.
Letang was miles away the better pick here... I doubled down on Voracek and it pretty well crippled my team.
I don't think I could've won the league with JUST a Letang-for-Voracek swap here... but I think I would've finished 2nd.

4. (44) Rick Nash (NYR - LW,RW)
When the sixth of my elite six D men, Letang, goes at pick #36 (even though he's Yahoo59)... I want to cry. I took Rick Nash, because, like Voracek, he was a top skater last year and I just can't let him sit there.

Well... Nash stunk too. I should've gone with Doughty and/or OEL... who both went in the next 10 picks. Even McDavid would've been a smarter pick.

5. (61) Andrew Ladd (Wpg - LW)
Shattenkirk, OEL, Doughty, Yandle, Giordano... even Justin FAULK!!!... went before I could pick again. That... is a RUN ON D. Mothafugga. I vowed to deplete the high-end forwards and took Andrew Ladd, one of the last massive hitters that can also score 60+pts and 200+SOG.

Another stinker of a pick. Not sure what was wrong with Andrew Ladd... maybe contract worries, but he just was off his game all year.

6. (70) Daniel Sedin (Van - LW)
Through 5 rounds, no D. I was truely frustrated. 0/5 in opening round plan. At least I had Giroux... and Pavelski. Inside my turn, I had wanted Nick Foligno - who won't repeat his year, but is still great grit. I took it as a sign from the Fantasy Hockey Gods when he was sniped. I reminded myself that anybody using FHG would probably overdraft HITS-value, so I zagged on doing that myself and took the high-offense (limited hits) of another LW... hoping to also deplete a position and create overdrafting.

Danny was actually quite good for first 4 months of season. He was up around Yahoo 20-30 range.
But the last two months, he & Henrik were hot garbage. Hot stinky garbage.

7. (87) Marian Hossa (Chi - RW)
Hossa went 122-105-120 in the other three leagues. That should be enough to wait... but I've simply watched too many guys sniped... too many people are drafting like me, so I reach here. I promise I'll get a defenseman next round. I queue up John Klingberg - because I'm gonna beat these guys to him.

At this point in the draft, I was like a boy who got his heart-broken and wasn't thinking clearly any more.
Ah, if only I had Klingberg and not the aging Hossa. Another mistake. Rounds 3-8 were a massive black hole for my team.

8. (96) Jaden Schwartz (StL - LW)
You know how it goes... Klingberg, who went 115-127-95... goes at #94. It's impossible, I can't get my hands on a D. I say eff-you to everybody (I think I actually did) and go after another high-scoring emerging player that is hopefully not projected high on FHG where everybody (not really everybody, but it felt like it) is referencing. I'll take Schwartz and deplete the LW more. I don't care if I have 4-5 LWers.

Schwartz got injured early in season. Fugg.

9. (113) Patrice Bergeron (Bos - C)
The next guy I queued up was Jason Spezza, who went 139-137-118 in other drafts. He'll be there at #113. You know the story... sniped. at #100... by a guy who's not even really there... horrorfan & his damn auto-queue. (Props to him, btw... brilliant, brilliant draft planning to get such a solid team without being live.) More cussing. Fine... and no exaggeration, I queue up Tatar (gone, next pick), I queue up Palat (gone, next pick). I made a comment at this point in the draft to the effect of "Are you guys inside my eyes?" (GMs will remember this). I was so frustrated. Still no D. Queue up Nyquist, gone, Vrbata, gone. I took Bergeron - it's a solid pick. I had so many wingers I could use a center and he'll shoot a lot as Boston chases wins. I'm OK with this... but I can't honestly say I've EVER been in a league with so many players sniped. Ever. Somebody's looking at what I have in my head. It's painful.

It's almost comical at this point.
Bergeron turned out to be the #6 overall player in Yahoo!... but I even got lucky at that.
Looking at the list of guys I had queued up... it's full of stinkers: Tatar, Palat, Nyquist, Vrbata... I was actually fortunate I didn't get those guys... what a strange, strange year.

10. (122) Mark Streit (Phi - D)
Streit, with my investment in the PHI PP, is probably the first guy to fall to me.

There was only one good thing about this pick... which was that as soon as Streit went down, I put the kid (Gostisbehere) on my radar and got him for $1 or $2... before the hype-train on him went crazy.

11. (139) Nick Bjugstad (Fla - C)
This was the part of the draft where I actually (seriously) cussed out loud, at home... loudly.

I over-targeted Bjugstad in several leagues.
And in several leagues, I should've just value-drafted Barkov. Oof.

12. (148) Petr Mrazek (Det - G)
From there, everything went to pure frustration. jcarins had taken Howard at #122... and I'd be damned if I let him value-draft the DET-pair with two picks coming back to him. I'll take 45 starts from Mrazek.

One of the honest, truly solid things I did mid-rounds of my drafts this year... was to target Mrazek.
The good news is that he was incredible for Detroit through February.
I was 1st or 2nd in ALL my one-year leagues through mid-to-late February.
Then the wheels fell of Mrazek... and my fortunate goaltending stats went down the toilet... fast. (And any Mrazek owners out there know my pain...)

*pause. I have time to think. It's 17 picks before I go again... OK, gotta get more goalie starts, MUST, priority #1, need a couple D-men, priority #2, then I'm going to really reach on back-ups on good teams to try to piece-wise fill goalie starts... I don't need bench skaters anyways because it's max GP. OK, we can do this. But I seriously hate my team.*

re: Goalies.
The crazy thing is that I did scramble hard... I worked REALLY hard all season to patch together 165 goalie starts.
And I did it.
And I won SV! 13/13 points.
But the goalies I rostered did awful... I patched in CGY goalies Hiller, then Ortio, then traded for Ramo, dropped Hiller when Ramo went on fire, then had to add Hiller when he got starts, then both go down and somebody else claims Ortio {sigh}. I patched in Korpisalo/McElhinney as soon as Bob went down. I patched in Murray when Fleury went down. But in March/April - I chased W/SV so badly as my only hope for a title that it cannibalized my GAA. I fell from a 2.50gaa (about 5th/6th place) to an end of season 2.69gaa (2nd last). About a 7 point drop... and coupled with that, my goalies couldn't win a game. I'd venture I got about 20 wins in 60-65 March/April starts. It was a brutal end to the year.

[horrorfan]

Might as well add a few thoughts while I have a bit of time.

I had to autodraft so difficult to plan so main focus was goaltending and overall hope that I am not too unbalanced.

Goalies are key when autodrafting as the computer fills starters first and then bench. I knew I was getting a top skater first, surprised it was Tavares so happy with a potential art ross winner. Quick and Crawford is a solid duo.

Balance-wise I am a bit stronger at centre and weaker on the left but if Staal gets left wing eligibility then that helps.

Overall happy with my squad so when I am back will look into any potential adjustments/trades.

C: Tavares, Turris, Spezza, Staal, Lehtera
L: Ryan, Wilson, Filppula, MacArthur, Elias
R: Eberle, Iginla, Gaborik, Brouwer, Tanguay
D: Shattenkirk, Giordano, Vatanen, Kronwall, Phaneuf, Campbell, Boyle
G: Quick, Crawford, Ward

A brief recap as I had to autodraft so not much draft strategy other than ensuring I had strong goaltending. Had some slow starts which put me in a hole but knew I was better than my early standing.

However, as I'm sure Pengwin will agree, the real reason for my turnaround is this:

Standings update: December 23, 2015:

On December 27th:

I know this may be a bit late but decided to change my team name to one with current rostered players:

Formerly: Devil's Backbonino
Now: Cannibal Staalocaust

I'm hoping that this change will lead to an improved performance from now on.

Final standings - April 11, 2016. Congrats to jcairns on the title!

Coincidence? I think not!

Considering where I was at the half way point I am happy I managed to finish in the top five.

[ccsitdown]

Congrats to the Beavers for holding on for the win. I pulled out everything I could to catch you, but I fell short. Same as last year. Well done!