Narrowing down last keeper, Nichushkin vs Semin vs Stone

[letangin9]

Trying to narrow down my last keepers for next year to one of Nichushkin, Semin or Stone. Pretty happy with the rest of my keepers for long term so ideally would be looking to grab one who's going to do the best for next year. Long term would be a nice bonus.

Scoring categories: G, A, PPP, +/-, SOG, BLK, PIM

Here's my thinking right now for all three:

Nichushkin - Good chance he's a part of Dallas' top 6 which has only gotten better. Also a good shot of landing a spot with Benn and Seguin which would be massive. 1st PP opportunities seem limited though, is there any chance he could nab a spot on that unit with Benn, Seguin, Spezza, Sharp on the roster?

Stone - Had a ridiculous last half of the year. Once Cameron took the helm in Ottawa he seemed keen on giving Stone all the opportunities he needed to really flourish and he definitely took advantage of that. Seems pretty prime for 1st line/1st PP duties next year. Finishing with a 16.6 sh% and a 10.34 on ice sh% seems a little unsustainable though. Any chance he manages to stay a top-30 scoring player next year?

Semin - Crazy talent/potential, lots of questions about whether he can live up to it. Bergevin's comments make it seem like they're slotting him into a top 6/1st PP role but with Therrien's coaching and Semin's attitude I half expect him to wind up on the 4th line within a few weeks. By far the most risky of the 3 since I would be banking on him having a huge bounceback season next year.

Any thoughts?

[P-Giddy]

I would take Nichushkin every day in a long-term keeper league.

Semin is incredibly risky and will turn 32 this year. There's also a chance he doesn't do well in MTL and leaves the NHL for good. Stone is a talented player, but I don't think he can sustain a 16+ shooting percentage. In the long-run, I doubt he's a 70-point forward; maybe in the 60s, but 70 is a stretch.

As for Nichushkin, I think he has the potential to be a superstar. 30-35 goals, 70-80 points consistently, IMO. And he's the youngest of the bunch. Keep him.

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I would take Nichushkin every day in a long-term keeper league.

Semin is incredibly risky and will turn 32 this year. There's also a chance he doesn't do well in MTL and leaves the NHL for good. Stone is a talented player, but I don't think he can sustain a 16+ shooting percentage. In the long-run, I doubt he's a 70-point forward; maybe in the 60s, but 70 is a stretch.

As for Nichushkin, I think he has the potential to be a superstar. 30-35 goals, 70-80 points consistently, IMO. And he's the youngest of the bunch. Keep him.

[The Comish]

Welcome letangin9!

Semin is a distant third in keeper discussions. It's clearly between Nichushkin and Stone. I'd take Stone and yes, he probably won't sustain that 16% shooting percentage, but he's not going to fall off too much. His Takeaways were tied for the most in the NHL, which speaks to his hockey sense. He had 47 points in 46 games from the turn of the calendar to 2015 to the end of the regular season. I really like Nichushkin, but we're still seduced by his promise/potential, not his production. It's easy to project, but while it's a close call for me, I'd definitely take Stone over Nichushkin.

Obviously, if you can trade before making your final protections, then offer both up and take the best deal and protect the other. Fugget about Semin or you'll be left with egg on your face...yeah, that's it, egg.

[marshal]

I'd go with Nichushkin over Stone by a little. Stone did have a great second-half of the season but I'm not sure he produces like that consistently for years to come. I think Nichushkin has better upside offensively and will eventually benefit with PP time playing alongside Seguin, Benn, Sharp, Klingberg.

[JHM]

Stone for me. If not convinced, then he will net you the most in the trade market in my opinion.

Nichushkin is second. If this, if that, then this. Don't get me wrong, he's a terrific talent and might play with some sensational talent.

Semin. He'll slip for a bunch more rounds. Older and only getting consideration due to the hype of the new contract. Very poor trade value too. Lots of guy won't touch him, and most everyone would love to have one of the first two.

[Axeman33]

Stone would be my choice followed by Nichushkin, but Stone for me easily.

[GoNucks]

Safe bet is Stone, but if you want to gamble with elite level talent (and I would) I would keep Nichushkin. The guy could line up next to Art Ross candidates in Seguin & Benn and could put up huge numbers.

[Big Baby]

Nichushkin for me as well. Love his upside with BennGuin

[Bubba55]

Ya, stay away from gettin' stuff on your face!! This is about Stone and Nish. Give me Stone. I like ugly! This is a guy who goes to the tough spots and dials the puck home. He did it in Jr and he did it in the NHL when he got his chance. The Sens will get the puck on his stick, 5 on 5 and on PP 1, count on it. Nish is a great player, but can you say he is a cornerstone piece for the Stars? My opinion only, but I think Stone becomes a cornerstone piece for the Sens. And to think that I picked up Hoffman instead of Stone on the WW last year, by the time I clued in, too late!!

[CHunter]

Stone
Nichushkin
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Semin

[fungchen3]

Yeah Semin isn't even on the same planet as the two kids. But, as much as I love Nichushkin's upside, I think you need to go Stone here. I'm not as worried about Nichushkin's "injury" as I am about his hulking, lanky frame and penchant for crashing the net leading to more injuries. I'm also not 100% sold that he lines up next to Benn and Seguin at ES, although as a Chooch owner I would certainly welcome it. Stone is still young and I think he outproduces Nichushkin for at least the next 2 years... and their upsides aren't worlds apart either.

[letangin9]

Thanks for the comments guys, I'll probably going to end up going with Stone.

Semin was a real stretch to even consider. He would have to have an unreal year to make it worth it which doesn't sound incredibly likely. Might take a flier on him with one of my last picks in the off-chance he does anything notable on Montreal.

Stone vs Nichushkin is a pretty close race though. Hard to turn down a guy who lit it up the second he got the opportunity to do so for a guy who has promise but nothing to show for it just yet. I think both players are going to be unreal but I'll have to go with the guy who is essentially a lock for top 6/1st PP minutes right off the bat and has the numbers to back it up. At least in the near term I think he'll outproduce Nichushkin, maybe I'll be able to snag again him in the draft.

[tomastop]

My vote goes to Stone here, with Nitch as very close second. However, I like the idea of shopping them both to see what you can get.

[Nikerato]

Easy decision here is Stone. People don't believe he's the real deal yet, and his draft position is probably to blame. He has more upside than Nichushkin and if he can stay healthy, he'll produce more year after year. I'd expect something like 0.9ppg over 65-75 gp. Take the middle and that's 63 points in 70 games. Imagine if he plays 82 games though... yowza (74pts)! I have a hard time believing that Nich will hit 63 over 82 in the next 2 years, and it's not like he's a guarantee to stay healthy either.

Nich will be great too! Probably a 70pt guy with upside for more in his prime. He's years away though.

Take the smarter player that's producing now, and has more upside. Win-win.

[Pengwin7]

Stone would be my choice followed by Nichushkin, but Stone for me easily.

I echo this.