Ask Cliffy Anything - July 30

[SlimCliffy]

Happy Thursday everyone! The long weekend is almost here...

Seeing as it's Thursday, it's a chance for a weekly thread I have here on the Dobber Forums for readers to ask any fantasy or non-fantasy hockey question that may come to mind. It's a good chance to get a bit more nuance than 140 characters from Twitter, also to get unanswered questions (hopefully) answered.

As usual, I'm not a prospects guy, so I won't be much help in that regard. Anything else - from trades, to keepers, to projections - is fair game.

I'll be checking back periodically through the day.

[PenguinHunter]

I'll start this one off....

What are your early projections for standings in each division?

[franklin]

What's your pts projection next year for:

-Stastny
-Kadri
-Vrbata

Thanks!

[SlimCliffy]

I'll start this one off....

What are your early projections for standings in each division?

Hate to be a buzzkill on the first one of the day, but one thing I learned to do for fantasy is project for goals scored for a team and that's about it. Obviously, shots against are important for goalies and plus/minus, but goalies are so volatile anyway that worrying about whether a team finishes third or fourth in their division is largely a waste of time.

Just for fun, I'll take division winners of Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Los Angeles.

[SlimCliffy]

What's your pts projection next year for:

-Stastny
-Kadri
-Vrbata


Thanks!

Of the three, Stastny has the widest range of outcomes. If he's stuck on the third line like last year, I don't see why there would be much improvement. If he can stay consistently in the top-six, I can see a bounce-back to 60 points. It's a hedge, but it matters so much where he plays that he can really be anywhere from 45-65 points.

Kadri I feel more safe with. I have him pegged for 50 points.

Vrbata should also see a repeat of something similar to last year. About 30 goals and 55-60 points.

[PenguinHunter]

Hate to be a buzzkill on the first one of the day, but one thing I learned to do for fantasy is project for goals scored for a team and that's about it. Obviously, shots against are important for goalies and plus/minus, but goalies are so volatile anyway that worrying about whether a team finishes third or fourth in their division is largely a waste of time.

Just for fun, I'll take division winners of Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Los Angeles.

Thanks!

I read 'readers to ask any fantasy or non-fantasy hockey question that may come to mind'. So I thought this would have be a good discussion to pass a slow day in the middle of summer.

Thanks for the division winners though!

[NatureX]

Hey thanks for this...

I have a couple of questions:

1) MaxPac: He is worth 4m moving forward in my league, and I have to make a decision as to whether to sign him or not...thoughts on if he is worth the keep or should I try to move? 2 Injuries in a short span scares me.

2) I need defence, a new GM is entertaining offers on Mcdonaugh, this year his salary is 875k but then jumps to 4.5m. He is looking for forwards, who do you think would be a fair trade going back? Since I need defence, would it be worth making an offer like tatar or lee? Or too much?
MaxPac, Ovi, Gaudreau, tatar, galch, iginla, lee, eberle


Thanks again

[SlimCliffy]

Hey thanks for this...

I have a couple of questions:

1) MaxPac: He is worth 4m moving forward in my league, and I have to make a decision as to whether to sign him or not...thoughts on if he is worth the keep or should I try to move? 2 Injuries in a short span scares me.

2) I need defence, a new GM is entertaining offers on Mcdonaugh, this year his salary is 875k but then jumps to 4.5m. He is looking for forwards, who do you think would be a fair trade going back? Since I need defence, would it be worth making an offer like tatar or lee? Or too much?
MaxPac, Ovi, Gaudreau, tatar, galch, iginla, lee, eberle


Thanks again

If you can sign Pacioretty to a $4M deal for this year, do it. Even if he takes a small step back because of injuries, he's still a 30+ goal scorer. Those are rare, and even more rare for that price.

Trading Tatar for McDonagh would be fine if you can do it. I wouldn't trade Lee though, his season last year was not a mirage and this is a guy I would want to hang on to unless I was getting an upper-tier D-man.

[SlimCliffy]

Thanks!

I read 'readers to ask any fantasy or non-fantasy hockey question that may come to mind'. So I thought this would have be a good discussion to pass a slow day in the middle of summer.

Thanks for the division winners though!

I know what you're saying, but for me it'd just be guessing the division standings and I don't really like to guess. Call it a personal oddity haha.

[TornBetween2Pucks]

Hi Cliffy,

Thanks for doing this. Wondering if I could have your next year and 3 year point projections for these guys:

Teravainen
Ryan Strome
N. Ehlers
Kuznetsov
Elias Lindholm
M. Zibanejad
J. Silfverberg

I've got them all on my team but I can only keep four. Thanks in advance.

[SlimCliffy]

Hi Cliffy,

Thanks for doing this. Wondering if I could have your next year and 3 year point projections for these guys:

Teravainen
Ryan Strome
N. Ehlers
Kuznetsov
Elias Lindholm
M. Zibanejad
J. Silfverberg

I've got them all on my team but I can only keep four. Thanks in advance.

Y1
Teravainen - 40 pts
Strome - 60 pts
Ehlers - 35 pts
Kuznetsov - 50 pts
Lindholm - 45 pts
Zibanejad - 50 pts
Silfverberg - 50 pts

Y3

Teravainen - 60 pts
Strome - 65 pts
Ehlers - 55 pts
Kuznetsov - 55 pts
Lindholm - 50 pts
Zibanejad - 50 pts
Silfverberg - 55 pts

If you had to keep four, I'd keep Teravainen/Strome for sure. Likely Kuznetsov as well. The last one would probably be Ehlers because I think he has upside beyond 55 pts in 2-3 years but it's about opportunity and actually fulfilling his talent expectations.

[PrairieDog]

I'd be interested in your projections over the next 3 years for two guys who have shown flashes of greatness but have been in the doghouse recently: Evander Kane and Jeff Skinner. Obviously Kane has a new slate to work with, he'll be on the top unit both ES and PP for sure. Skinner's got the talent to be on the top units but was bounced down to the 3rd line last year for stretches...both still very young, on poor teams.

[SlimCliffy]

I'd be interested in your projections over the next 3 years for two guys who have shown flashes of greatness but have been in the doghouse recently: Evander Kane and Jeff Skinner. Obviously Kane has a new slate to work with, he'll be on the top unit both ES and PP for sure. Skinner's got the talent to be on the top units but was bounced down to the 3rd line last year for stretches...both still very young, on poor teams.

You're bang on with Skinner. He was relegated to third line/2nd PP duties on a team that was bottom-5 in scoring last year, and the last 3 years. All the same, Skinner has been a multiple-time 30-goal scorer for largely a bad team. He's uber-talented. I can see a rebound to 25 goals for Skinner staying in Carolina, but hopefully he's just traded.

Kane has a similar outlook, but I like him next year just because even though his team won't be very good, he should get a lot of prime minutes playing on the team's top line with O'Reilly. If he's healthy over the next three years, this is a potential 30-goal scorer year over year. The key is obviously staying healthy.

Both are similar, and don't be surprised if both (again, if healthy) are pushing for 30 goals year over year as long as they're used properly. One thing that's hard to account for is coaching decisions, which is the unquantifiable variable here, and a significant one.

[northernnuck]

Which is a better handcuff scenario this year, Crawford/Darling or Howard/Mrazek?

[SlimCliffy]

Which is a better handcuff scenario this year, Crawford/Darling or Howard/Mrazek?

Howard/Mrazek if you're looking for the back-end of the handcuff. I think Crawford is good and don't expect Darling to get 30+ starts or anything.