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Thread: Strome and Marner vs next tier

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    ccsitdown's Avatar
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    Default Strome and Marner vs next tier

    Points only league. I have a possible move to trade up to 3rd overall, which would give me my choice of Marner, Strome and Klingberg. It's a little pricey, though, so I'm curious what you all think the difference will be between these two and the next tier. The price includes 6th and 15th, plus some later picks. At 6th I would likely have my choice of Barzal, Zacha, Rantanen etc. At 15th, maybe Meier or Conner or Konecny. Most important, though - is it substantially worth it to move up? Are Strome and Marner a big enough step up?

    Thanks!
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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    Strome and Marner are on par with MacKinnon in terms of talent. Would you make the move for Mac?

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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    It's a fair offer for Marner.
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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    Points only? Give me Marner. I think he's got a higher upside than Strome. Wouldn't trade him for 6th/15th package.
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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    Strome and Marner are on par with MacKinnon in terms of talent. Would you make the move for Mac?
    I'm a Leafs fan - you really think Marner is on par with MacKinnon? Don't tease like that if you don't mean it FHG - I have mucho respect for your opinion.


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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    I'd want one of the upper 4 as well.

    For me:

    McDavid/Eichel
    .
    .
    .
    Strome/Marner
    .
    .
    .
    Rantanen
    .
    .
    .
    Barzal/Zacha etc.
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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    Strome and Marner are on par with MacKinnon in terms of talent. Would you make the move for Mac?
    Umm, say whaaaaaaatttt??

    As good as both of these kids are, I do not see them in the same class as MacKinnon. Heck, I feel Drouin is a notch above them in terms of skill.

    Although they do not play the same type of game, I can compare them to Yakupov, Galchenyuk and Forsberg in terms of skill/upside.
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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    Quote Originally Posted by Bass56 View Post
    Umm, say whaaaaaaatttt??

    As good as both of these kids are, I do not see them in the same class as MacKinnon. Heck, I feel Drouin is a notch above them in terms of skill.

    Although they do not play the same type of game, I can compare them to Yakupov, Galchenyuk and Forsberg in terms of skill/upside.
    That's not what the numbers say. Age and scoring -adjusted numbers show Strome and Marner as close to a wash with MacKinnon and Drouin in their draft year NHL equivalent scoring (data from www.theprojectionproject.com).

    Player Draft Year -1 NHLe Draft Year NHLe
    McDavid 43 63
    Eichel 36 48
    Strome 16 47
    Marner 23 49
    MacKinnon 29 36
    Drouin 19 46
    Yakupov 38 40
    Galchenyuk 30 46

    That's just the hard numbers. Then you've gotta look at the play style itself; for me Marner's game is very translatable to the NHL in that he's defensively very sound and plays very hard.

    It's not a crazy view. I'd say that Mac and Drouin are being overrated with respect to the rest of these guys.

    (note this "analysis" also neglects age effects of early/late birthdays, which have been shown to be quite relevant)
    Last edited by fantasyhockeygeek; June 30, 2015 at 7:12 PM. Reason: Added Yak and Galchenyuk

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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    i'd back up what FHG is saying. Mackinnon brings speed and physicality that 2015ers don't, but skill wise they are right up there. FHG said Marner in particular was very "translatable", which i agree with 100%.

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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    That's not what the numbers say. Age and scoring -adjusted numbers show Strome and Marner as close to a wash with MacKinnon and Drouin in their draft year NHL equivalent scoring (data from www.theprojectionproject.com).

    Player Draft Year -1 NHLe Draft Year NHLe
    McDavid 43 63
    Eichel 36 48
    Strome 16 47
    Marner 23 49
    MacKinnon 29 36
    Drouin 19 46
    Yakupov 38 40
    Galchenyuk 30 46

    That's just the hard numbers. Then you've gotta look at the play style itself; for me Marner's game is very translatable to the NHL in that he's defensively very sound and plays very hard.

    It's not a crazy view. I'd say that Mac and Drouin are being overrated with respect to the rest of these guys.

    (note this "analysis" also neglects age effects of early/late birthdays, which have been shown to be quite relevant)


    I understand the numbers and projections part, but MacKinnon is not overhyped IMO.

    So according to these numbers, I would be crazy to not go after Strome or Marner? The 3rd pick owner wants to deal his pick for a good prospect or an established young player and a later first round pick.

    I can offer my 13th overall as well as any prospect or young player from my team in sig.

    What would be a
    Fair deal IYO?

    Thanks FHG
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    D: Simashev, Willander, Lambos
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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    Why not offer the 13th pick and a good prospect like Milano or Scherbak (assuming the team in your signature is who we are dealing with here)? If he is a Habs fan, he may go for Scherbak pretty quickly.

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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    Yup, I couldn't tell which one of those two could be the real deal in the NHL so to play it safe, I took both Marner and Strome in case one of them is a bust.
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    +/-,G,A,GWG,PTS,STP,PIM,SOG,HT,BS,GAA,SO,SV,W
    Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalies

    Forwards: Domi, K.Connor, Kessel, Parise, Monahan, Point, Rantanen, Kucherov, Panarin , M.Martin, Reaves, Marner
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    Default Re: Strome and Marner vs next tier

    I'd look to package any of your prospects (let him pick) and the 13th pick, or if he's got a bone for him, Niederreiter.

    If I were the other GM, I wouldn't even consider it, so maybe the right way to go is to ask him who he likes and let him have his pick?

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