Great article Axe and some really tremendous replies. I've rep'd who I could but many of you I apparently rep too often lol.
I think a few posters nailed some of the potential reasonings that help explain Axe's research. SeaDawg mentioned how we (in general) are a bit like gamblers and I think that's apropos. Whether it's the stock market, real estate, etc., we all love to be the one to "buy low" and "sell high". Don't often hear to many people bragging about how they made minimal but positive returns on their safe investment... despite this often being a much more sound strategy.
There's just something so fulfilling to our egos to be able to say "I predicted Johnny Hockey would be an instant star despite the fears over his size" as opposed to "I just knew Andrew Ladd would hit 55-60 points again!" lol.
Agree with Fung too that due to this reality, young players often do hold greater trade value. But as he mentioned, that too can be a gamble.
And at the bottom of it all, I think nearly every GM is absolutely terrified of looking like an idiot by holding on to an older player whose value craters. Take it from someone who had Alexander Semin on his team this year haha.
If a young guy falters, we assuage ourselves by saying "he'll bounce back" or "just wasn't the right situation for him"... but if an old guy declines, it's as though the entire blame falls on our weak managerial shoulders. ("You should have known he was done").
That's the one area I'd really love to improve as a fantasy GM... being as comfortable with accepting the decline of an older guy I thought had another good year in him as I am with accepting one of the myriad of prospects I hype not panning out (which are plentiful haha).
Thanks for writing Axe and thanks guys for the fantastic conversation!