McDavid/Dubnyk vs MacK/Vasilevskiy

[Bomm Bastic]

Here's an interesting one for ya.

First, all things being equal generally speaking which side would you rather own in a dynasty, H2H, 12 teams, Gs/As only league?

Second, would you make the above trade (same league set up) if you were the one giving up McDavid and Dubie (me) knowing you have Schneider and Mrazek on your roster (I would say no).

Third, what if a 2016 1st overall were thrown to make it MacK/Vasil/1st?

Discuss....

[SergeP]

I would prefer the McDavid/Dubnyk side here by a good margin. Both McDavid and Mackinon qualify as prospects and McDavid has by far the higher projected upside. As far as the goalies go, Dubnyk is cementing himself as the real deal this season whereas Vas may still be a few years away from even getting that chance. Easy decision for me and the addition of a 1st next year wouldn't change my mind.

[Kofax]

I'll take the McDavid side as well. He has a chance to be so much more than MacKinnon. Goaltending fluctuates so wildly and neither Dubnyk nor Vasilevsky have shown enough to gain my confidence that I would just take them out of the equation entirely. A 2016 1st does not change my outlook.

[BillyD.]

Yeah McDavid/Dubnik wins it !

[Bomm Bastic]

Thanks, gents. That was kinda my thinking anyway.

Back story...

I am in (actually wrapping up) the first year of a dynasty rebuild. I scooped Dubs when he was traded to MIN. Taunted Kuemper's owner ever since trying to goad him into a trade . He balked thinking Dub's success was a flash in the pan. Roster's froze two weeks ago. NOW he's emailing me suggesting we talk shop during the off season attempting to bait me cuz he knows months past I had been asking him for MacK and Vasilevskiy.

Thing is back then, I was not so certain of my goalie depth. But now w/Dubs success I have Schneider, Dubs and Mrazek as my top-3 so I'm not motivated by Vasil as much as I was.

Oh...and I am almost assured the 1st overall. That would give me McDavid, Monahan and Bjugstad as my centers. I dig that shizzo.

Just wanted to get a feel for the community's POV re the goalie end of that deal and whether it was worth a consideration.

Thanks, again guys.

[chuckcouples]

In a goals + assists only league I much prefer the McDavid/Dubnyk side over the MacKinnon/Vasilevski side. Dubnyk has 2 assists this year but goaltender assists are mostly fluke based so I wouldn't count on him repeating that performance next year.

[havanablast21]

LOVE vas... But McDavid tips the scales 10 fold.

[MarmotKing]

McDavid's side easy for me.

[PSlipps]

this site has a tendency to overrate young prospects, and we are all very fickle. mackinnon a year ago was an untouchable asset. that being said, mcdavid is a top 3 pick a year from now, no doubt about it. kid is better than crosby, and this is coming from the biggest crosby fan boy out there. treat any trade with him involved as if your moving cros, malkin, tavares etc

[4horsemen]

this site has a tendency to overrate young prospects, and we are all very fickle. mackinnon a year ago was an untouchable asset. that being said, mcdavid is a top 3 pick a year from now, no doubt about it. kid is better than crosby, and this is coming from the biggest crosby fan boy out there. treat any trade with him involved as if your moving cros, malkin, tavares etc

If you look up 'overrating young players' I believe you'll find a sentence similar to: When one proclaims, with any degree of certainty, that a prospect will be better than the defining player of a generation (eg Crosby).

Maybe I missed the sarcasm and if so

I don't think this trade is nearly as 'slam dunk' as some might think. McDavid is the best asset in the deal but I feel very strongly that Vas and Nate Mac are the next two most valuable assets. Duby's success over part of this year has not yet made a believer out of me. We've seen this happen to goalies in the past, this guy is 28 years old and although certainly not unprecedented, it seems unlikely that he's suddenly become a stud goaltender. This little run in Minny screams 'outlier' at me. Until proven otherwise I'm going to count this season as his high water mark and would jump on an opportunity to sell high. I actually see this deal as very close and I'd have to think long and hard on it while digesting the intricacies of the league settings.

How can you know that the 2016 1st would be 1st overall? If it was I'd then call this a slam dunk for the Nate Mac side and I loves me some McDavid.

[Bomm Bastic]

If you look up 'overrating young players' I believe you'll find a sentence similar to: When one proclaims, with any degree of certainty, that a prospect will be better than the defining player of a generation (eg Crosby).

Maybe I missed the sarcasm and if so

I don't think this trade is nearly as 'slam dunk' as some might think. McDavid is the best asset in the deal but I feel very strongly that Vas and Nate Mac are the next two most valuable assets. Duby's success over part of this year has not yet made a believer out of me. We've seen this happen to goalies in the past, this guy is 28 years old and although certainly not unprecedented, it seems unlikely that he's suddenly become a stud goaltender. This little run in Minny screams 'outlier' at me. Until proven otherwise I'm going to count this season as his high water mark and would jump on an opportunity to sell high. I actually see this deal as very close and I'd have to think long and hard on it while digesting the intricacies of the league settings.

How can you know that the 2016 1st would be 1st overall? If it was I'd then call this a slam dunk for the Nate Mac side and I loves me some McDavid.

Now that's what I was getting at with regard to this discussion. Great points 4horsemen.

Not saying anyone is right or wrong, but this is exactly what led me to post this topic. I think it really does hinge on Dubs perceived value, and IF Kuemper is still in convo then this deal may be closer than first glance suggests.

The other key component is MacK and his likelihood of realizing his potential.

I am going to have the conversation with this GM just to get a feel for his perspective. I have a suspicion he values McD and MacK a little too similarly, and that would be wrong imo, and could end up abruptly ending further talks.

I mean if he can throw in Dougie Hamilton too (d-men get +2 for Gs and As) then we might to have to explore this further.