Kessel trade help

[CheeseburgerCanuck]

So with the slump of the leafs and Kessel would you hold on to him and hope he bounces back or would you try and move him.

I recently received and offer

my Kessel for his Duchene and Forsberg




Our league is a 10 team, 12 player keeper. Weekly H2H
Points only.
Weight - G= 2 A= 1 Hatty =3 W = 2 So=3 OTL=1
Keepers. (No forward positional Requirements)

[Kofax]

Not a terrible offer, but you're dropping someone as well. Given it's such a goal heavy league, I think I'm sticking with Kessel + drop here.

[Leafs&G86]

Thats a solid offer, although I'd hold. Imagine what you could get for Kessel when he gets back on track? He's an 80 point guy who will get you 35-40 goals. Despite his (and the leafs) awful slump he is still on pace for 70+ points. I'd hold and wait for him to come around. Who knows if he ever were traded to a team with a true #1C his value would rise.

[SergeP]

I'd consider this offer depending on who I had to drop. I think people forget that Duchene is also in a huge slump this season so his value is taking a good hit much like Kessel's has. I'd be very tempted to pull the trigger but if he came to you there's a good chance he's willing to increase his offer. If you can get him to throw a pick or another nice piece in, I think I would take the deal.

[Kofax]

In a regular points league with no bonus to goals, I agree with others that you more strongly consider taking Duchene/Forsberg, but it's a goal heavy league, which sways things in Kessels favour.

Duchene/Forsberg
Duchene is tough to predict right now, so let's say he has the following range:
20G, 40A (80)
25G, 55A (105)

Forsberg is also tough to predict right now because he's a rookie. I don't quite feel he's an 80 point guy, but he's shown he has quite a bit of promise. I'm willing to give him a 60 - 75 range for now:
15G 45A (75)
25G 50A (100)

So for the two of them, we're looking at something between:
155 to 205 points per season, and you're probably ending up somewhere in between.

Kessel/Plug
Now if we look at Kessel, who season to season is quite consistent, we get:
30G 45A (105)
40G 45A (125)
Right off the bat he is clearly the best player in the deal, by a solid margin, and honestly, I think he has a 50 goal 90 point season in him in the absolute perfect scenario.

Now in a 10 team league that doesn't look too deep with no positional requirements, it's probably not hard to find a 50-60 point player:
10G 40A (60)
15G 45A (75)

So that gives us a range between:
165-200

Other Factors
Pretty even deal if we look at the numbers. However, the following points sway me to keep Kessel:
1. You are taking on more risk with Duchene and Forsberg because they haven't shown consistency yet, and we're not quite sure what they are going to be.
2. Meanwhile, Kessel has consistently proven to be one of the better GOAL scorers in the NHL since 2011.
3. Finally, I think you have a much better chance to upgrade that 50-60 point plug playing with Kessel to a 65 or even 70 point player, which then tips the scale further in the Kessel side favour.

So that's my reasoning as to why, in this league, I would stick with Kessel. I'm also not accounting for hattricks, which Kessel should have a higher probability at obtaining given his higher goal totals.