Duncan Keith

[changeling87]

He is currently on pace for about 48 pts, does he pick it up in the second half and get close to his production from last year?

[Dobber]

My guess is he finishes right around there. Maybe 50. But there will be a hot run that will have you convinced 65 is on the way...but also a cold run that will make you wonder what the hell is going on. He's not a 65-point player, he just does that every few years. I think he's a 50-point player.

[LakeSoup]

My guess is he finishes right around there. Maybe 50. But there will be a hot run that will have you convinced 65 is on the way...but also a cold run that will make you wonder what the hell is going on. He's not a 65-point player, he just does that every few years. I think he's a 50-point player.

Totally agree with this assessment of Keith, value him as a 50 point player, he's only 65 when everyone else is having amazing years.

[Maaaasquito]

That's a tough question and anyone without a crystal ball can't really give you a real answer...

The thing is Keith had a very very good year last year, but it isn't the norm, his ESP rate was ridiculous last year, which really buoyed up his point totals... And the Hawks offense had a little bit of an uptick in terms of scoring production.

2009-10: 53 ESP (0.65 ESP /g), 3.20 G/G
2010-11: 23 ESP (0.28 ESP/g), 3.07 G/G
2011-12: 27 ESP (0.36 ESP/g), 2.94 G/G
2012-13: 17 ESP (0.36 ESP/g), 3.10 G/G
2013-14: 40 ESP (0.51 ESP/g), 3.18 G/G
2014-15: 19 ESP (0.41 ESP/g), 3.02 G/G

If you look at their current numbers, it indicates that this season should fall in line more with his current pace (maybe even a little bit of a drop off) than what he produced last season.

[changeling87]

I wonder about those big fluctuations in those 2 years though, that's the kind of difference that can make or break a team

[ericdaoust]

I wonder about those big fluctuations in those 2 years though, that's the kind of difference that can make or break a team

It absolutely makes a huge difference but you can't value him assuming those massive totals. It's just too high a price to pay for occasional hikes in production. You're better off valuing him as a 45-point player with additional upside (this "upside" should put him ahead of other 45-point dmen).

[Maaaasquito]

Total team point production...
2009-10: 725, 52-22-8 2nd West, Stanley Cup winner
2010-11: 688, 44-29-9 8th West, 1st round
2011-12: 660, 45-26-11 6th West, 1 round
2012-13: 397 (693 pro-rated), 36-7-5 1st West, Stanley Cup winner
2013-14: 712 , 46-21-15, 5th West, 3rd round
2014-15: 392 (683 pro-rated)

Keith's percentage of team points...
2009-10: 9.5%
2010-11: 6.5%
2011-12: 6.1%
2012-13: 6.8%
2013-14: 8.8%
2014-15: 6.9%

I don't know if it makes a huge difference, the Hawks are a good quality team, who isn't reliant on 1 player to be a difference maker... If you look at the numbers above, they've been pretty consistent in terms of settling around the 680-690 mark in terms of point production as a team... Keith has been pretty consistent in terms of accounting for around 6-7% of the team's totals, some seasons it's a little bit higher at 8-9, but it's much more consistent around the 6.5-6.9 mark.

Treat Keith as many of said around the 45-point guy, which a few odd seasons of 60 when the Hawk's offense clicks a little bit more...

[fungchen3]

He is currently on pace for about 48 pts, does he pick it up in the second half and get close to his production from last year?

I think he ends up between 47-51. I don't see him sniffing 60 unless the Hawks go bananas and Keith loads up on insane PP goodies. He's not a bankable 60+ fantasy threat. When he spikes, he will hit 60 and I think he has 1 more 60-pointer left in the tank before he's done.