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Thread: Rebuilding Teams

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Rebuilding Teams

    Also - I zipped past my 13K post so fast that nobody noticed, not even me!
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  2. #17
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    Default Re: Rebuilding Teams

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    But the bottom line is, when you revisit this post in three years you will see that I'm right. I don't know how, and if I could give the formula as to the hows and whys then NHL teams would be in bidding wars over me.
    You'll only be right if they get a #1 center.

    For me, this team is way too familar right now.
    And EDM fans won't like the comparison... 2000s Thrashers.
    You know what that team NEVER had... a dynamic #1 center.

    The parallels are eerie:
    They are so eerie... I don't even have to do them... you guys can do them yourselves:

    Elite #1 Drafted Left Winger:
    For ATL: #1 overall drafted Ilya Kovalchuk (2001)
    For EDM:

    Solid Opposite Side Winger:
    For ATL: #2 overall drafted Dany Heatley (2000)
    For EDM:

    That 1st round center that is still a #1C... doesn't really wow you... works well enough... but really... not dynamic:
    For ATL: #12 overall drafted Bryan Little (2006)
    For EDM:

    That absolute BUST of a #1 overall draft pick:
    For ATL: #1 overall drafted Patrik Stefan
    For EDM:

    Pretty highly touted Defenseman:
    For ATL: #8 overall Braydon Coburn (2003)
    For EDM:

    Another highly touged Defenseman:
    For ATL: #3 overall Zach Bogosian (2008)
    For EDM:

    ATL also had a #2 overall goalie selected in 2002: Kari Lehtonen
    ATL also had a #4 overall gritty winger in 2009: Evander Kane


    Do you know what you get when you put all these things together?
    From 2000-to-now...
    Do you know what you get...
    0 playoff wins.

    Atlanta chased it all... elite wingers, serviceable centers, complimentary wingers, big hopeful defenseman, even an elite goalie.
    The ONE thing they never got... was the ELITE, DYNAMIC C1.
    The rebuild hinges on this.
    Make no mistake.

    Yeah... three years from now... (if they got that DYNAMIC centerman)... you might be right...
    Or EDM might still be chasing a playoff win... just like the Atlanta Thrashers.
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    Default Re: Rebuilding Teams

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    You'll only be right if they get a #1 center.

    For me, this team is way too familar right now.
    And EDM fans won't like the comparison... 2000s Thrashers.
    You know what that team NEVER had... a dynamic #1 center.

    The parallels are eerie:
    They are so eerie... I don't even have to do them... you guys can do them yourselves:

    Elite #1 Drafted Left Winger:
    For ATL: #1 overall drafted Ilya Kovalchuk (2001)
    For EDM:

    Solid Opposite Side Winger:
    For ATL: #2 overall drafted Dany Heatley (2000)
    For EDM:

    That 1st round center that is still a #1C... doesn't really wow you... works well enough... but really... not dynamic:
    For ATL: #12 overall drafted Bryan Little (2006)
    For EDM:

    That absolute BUST of a #1 overall draft pick:
    For ATL: #1 overall drafted Patrik Stefan
    For EDM:

    Pretty highly touted Defenseman:
    For ATL: #8 overall Braydon Coburn (2003)
    For EDM:

    Another highly touged Defenseman:
    For ATL: #3 overall Zach Bogosian (2008)
    For EDM:

    ATL also had a #2 overall goalie selected in 2002: Kari Lehtonen
    ATL also had a #4 overall gritty winger in 2009: Evander Kane


    Do you know what you get when you put all these things together?
    From 2000-to-now...
    Do you know what you get...
    0 playoff wins.

    Atlanta chased it all... elite wingers, serviceable centers, complimentary wingers, big hopeful defenseman, even an elite goalie.
    The ONE thing they never got... was the ELITE, DYNAMIC C1.


    Yeah... three years from now... you might be right...
    Or EDM might still be chasing a playoff win... just like the Atlanta Thrashers.
    I'm still agreeing with you, so you're arguing with yourself

    Atlanta didn't continue the rebuild long enough. Which are steps that Edmonton is getting pressured to follow. Another 4 years and Atlanta would get that final ingredient, but then they started messing with things (Heatley, Lehtonen, Coburn, etc all moved) rather than giving it more time - which they obviously couldn't do, given that they lost the franchise as a result...
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  4. #19
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    Default Re: Rebuilding Teams

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    I'm still agreeing with you, so you're arguing with yourself

    Atlanta didn't continue the rebuild long enough.
    ...

    Your agreeing with me doesn't make your post correct, simply by association that you agree with me.
    I'm at least mentioning the importance of that dynamic C1... which isn't something you mention in the OP.
    The OP suggests that EDM will get there... just by sucking a bit longer...
    That's the Atlanta Thrashers.

    And how long do you think Atlanta should've continued to rebuild for?!?
    They were founded in 1999 for goodness sake.
    That's just lunacy to keep tacking on years where it is acceptable to be in rebuild.
    4 more years...
    So... 15 years... 20 years... is that an acceptable length of time for a rebuild!?!

    I think a better "study" would be to look at the teams that got an elite center... and count from that player's draft year to: i) their first playoff appearance ADeC... or ii) to their Stanley Cup ADeC {ADeC = After Drafting [elite] Center}
    I think that would be an important consideration when forecasting the JUMP of a successful rebuild.

    3 years though... when EDM doesn't yet have that center... I don't agree that's a forecast with merit.
    My 2 cents.
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    Default Re: Rebuilding Teams

    So you don't see the Flames sniffing the playoffs anytime soon? There isn't an "elite" #1 centerman of the ilk you're describing

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    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    So you don't see the Flames sniffing the playoffs anytime soon? There isn't an "elite" #1 centerman of the ilk you're describing
    Teams don't re-build just to make the playoffs.
    A successful rebuild is about having a championship-caliber club.
    (I'd love to hear a GM say "Our rebuild is complete, we are a #8 playoff club! Hooray!")

    Obviously 16 teams will make the playoffs every year.
    And there are maybe only a handful of centers in the league that I would label as "dynamic" or "elite" centers.
    It's less than 16.

    Go through the last 35 years of Stanley Cup winners.
    I'd bet that about 25+ have an "elite" / "dynamic" center... or even two!
    A very few teams might succeed with a system (NJ) or just put it all together for that one season.

    Positionally, if you look at the elite teams over the history of hockey...
    And you say to somebody...
    "What do you feel these teams have most in common?"
    ...
    For me...
    They have an elite #1 center.

    A successful rebuild results in a championship. (not just playoffs, though it's obviously a step along the way)
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  7. #22
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    I believe if the Oilers defense was dramatically upgraded you'd see Nugent-Hopkins a lot closer to elite than people think, but I might be wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Well... it's not fun to disagree with Dobber... but I'll do it here.
    Just because a team has been bad forever and stocks rebuild picks doesn't mean they are going to turn it around.
    The one key thing that a hockey fan should recall seeing on most every dynasty of a great playoff team... is a dynamic #1 center.

    The 80s Oilers... check... Gretzky.
    The 90s Penguins... check... Lemieux.
    The long line of Detroit teams... check... Yzerman, Datsyuk/Zetterberg.
    The 90s/00s Avalanche... check... Sakic/Forsberg.
    The current Blackhawks... check... Toews.
    The current LA Kings... check... Kopitar.
    The current Penguins... check... Crosby/Malkin.
    (and while most wouldn't include Bergeron in this list... he really is one of the best two-way/all-around centers of our generation. Underappreciated for lack of points.)
    The emerging Islanders... check... Tavares.

    The current Oilers... IMO... nope, sorry... RNH is not the guy... Draisatl will be a nice player... but he's not the guy either.
    If they get McDavid.... IF... yup, problem solved.

    In fact... whoever gets McDavid... will join the list above.

    But that #1 center is oh-so-important.
    If EDM can't find that #1 dynamic center... they won't make the jump.
    THIS... IMO... is why they've been floundering away from playoff-island so long. No anchor.

    My 2 cents.
    Dynamic C's are important for sure but the Isles had Tavares for a while before they became good. Without their kid line this year, there's no way they could be doing that good. Halak had to come in to shore up the goalie situation.
    And I argue they don't have that "elite D" either, their D all kind of play by committee. No real #1 guy to soak up minutes in the clutch moment.

    Perhaps that's the knock against them in the playoffs...
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    Why I don't get into an argument with Pengwin

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  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by doulos View Post
    I believe if the Oilers defense was dramatically upgraded you'd see Nugent-Hopkins a lot closer to elite than people think, but I might be wrong.
    This is how I feel, but was afraid to say. It can't be proven. But it can easily be scoffed at so I'm stuck.
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    G - Bobrovsky, Talbot, Pickard, Brossoit
    D - Yandle, Schultz, Letang, Krug, Vlasic, Demers, Walman

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by doulos View Post
    I believe if the Oilers defense was dramatically upgraded you'd see Nugent-Hopkins a lot closer to elite than people think, but I might be wrong.
    I can see that. I think that Nugent-Hopkins has improved drastically this season. You can really see that he has finally put on the weight necessary to compete on a night to night basis. Look no further than his improved faceoff percentage, which has jumped to a passage 49.5% from last season's futility at 42.5%. Winning faceoffs on the whole isn't a critical skill but if you want to look at whether or not a player has made real strides in terms of strength gain, it's a good place to start.

    The sample size is way too small for this season but I also like the trend in Nuge's even-strength scoring. Before this season 40.9% of his scoring came on the power play and he was scoring at a rate of just 32 even-strength points per season, which is pathetic.

    The power play has been awful this season and Nuge has just three power-play points but he's remained relevant because of a boost in his scoring rate at evens. Maybe it's a bit of noise because of the smaller sample (his on-ice shooting is high at 9.94% but sustainable for elite talents.) I'd like to think that it's another sign of his improvement. With 14 of his 17 coming at evens Nuge is on pace for 48 even-strength points a mark that would have tied him with Jonathan Toews for 18th in the league last season. Maybe that's not elite but it's a marked improvement. And if it could be combined with any sort of power play scoring he'd be among the top 30 scorers.
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  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    You'll only be right if they get a #1 center.

    For me, this team is way too familar right now.
    And EDM fans won't like the comparison... 2000s Thrashers.
    You know what that team NEVER had... a dynamic #1 center.

    The parallels are eerie:
    They are so eerie... I don't even have to do them... you guys can do them yourselves:

    Elite #1 Drafted Left Winger:
    For ATL: #1 overall drafted Ilya Kovalchuk (2001)
    For EDM:

    Solid Opposite Side Winger:
    For ATL: #2 overall drafted Dany Heatley (2000)
    For EDM:

    That 1st round center that is still a #1C... doesn't really wow you... works well enough... but really... not dynamic:
    For ATL: #12 overall drafted Bryan Little (2006)
    For EDM:

    That absolute BUST of a #1 overall draft pick:
    For ATL: #1 overall drafted Patrik Stefan
    For EDM:

    Pretty highly touted Defenseman:
    For ATL: #8 overall Braydon Coburn (2003)
    For EDM:

    Another highly touged Defenseman:
    For ATL: #3 overall Zach Bogosian (2008)
    For EDM:

    ATL also had a #2 overall goalie selected in 2002: Kari Lehtonen
    ATL also had a #4 overall gritty winger in 2009: Evander Kane


    Do you know what you get when you put all these things together?
    From 2000-to-now...
    Do you know what you get...
    0 playoff wins.

    Atlanta chased it all... elite wingers, serviceable centers, complimentary wingers, big hopeful defenseman, even an elite goalie.
    The ONE thing they never got... was the ELITE, DYNAMIC C1.
    The rebuild hinges on this.
    Make no mistake.

    Yeah... three years from now... (if they got that DYNAMIC centerman)... you might be right...
    Or EDM might still be chasing a playoff win... just like the Atlanta Thrashers.
    I don't think you have to narrow it down to not drafting an elite centerman. How about simply not drafting and developing enough talent that they are currently benefiting from to one degree or another? Elite center is a cure all. So is an elite defenseman. Or an elite goaltender. You can build around any of those. Edmonton and Atlanta before them never got any of those and failed to fill their coffers with enough talent to overcome that.
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