Advice on big keeper league trade - rep!

[His Dudeness]

League in sig. The first thing to note is that in our league, the way entry draft works is the first 24 players actually taken in the entry draft get assigned to the team (in our league) who had that pick - i.e. if you end up 5th worst you have the 5th overall entry pick and whoever the actual NHL team (whoever that is) takes 5th overall is who you get. We have 24 guys in our league and only the first 24 drafted players get put onto people's rosters - anybody can pick up any other draft pick (25 onwards) via waivers.

I hold the 2015 entry pick up the guy I'm looking at doing this trade with. He wants it back! He's currently sitting 3rd to last. However, his team has been underperforming and I could see him working the waiver wire to move back into the middle of the pack (reducing the value of his draft pick in my hands). But he wants his pick so he can try to stay down in that bottom position (by tanking in a legitimate way) and get a high pick. In other words, he's taking the position that his pick is worth more in his hands than in mine - and I think that's partially true.

We've been back and forth for weeks. Here's what we're down to:
-To him: JVR/Gardiner/Hutchinson (he has Pavelec) and his 2015 pick to him.
-To me: Holtby/McDonagh and either: (1) Leivo or Chris Terry or Prince (all meh) and his 2016 pick, or (2) Seth Griffith (but if I do this, no 2016 pick and I also have to give him Svedberg).

Tough one! I hate losing all of those guys I'm trading, but Gardiner is killing me (-19 pool points based on our scoring system) this year so far. Hutchinson has looked great in limited starts but at the end of the day he's unproven. Holtby and McDonagh are pretty good guys to own. McD is coming back from injury shortly.

Do you think I'm losing my mind? Fair trade? Good trade for me? If you think it's fair/good, would you rather have his 2016 pick (who knows what pick that will be) or Seth Griffith who seems to have some promise?

The last point I'll make is that I'm in first place but there are a couple of guys nipping at my heels, one in particular has really been coming on.

Thanks

[GoNucks]

I think this is a great deal for you.

Holtby could be a top 5 goalie for the next few years with Trotz there. And McD is a solid multi cat guy....better than Gardiner.

The fact you can add Griffith too who is top line RW at the moment is a bonus.

You are not giving up much for a very great return.

[His Dudeness]

Thanks GoNucks for that reply. Our league counts goals, assists and +/- but not other stats (other than minor additional points for PP points, winning goals, shoot-out goals). i.e. no PIM / hits / shots etc.

[StaveOffElimination]

That's a tough one because the 3rd overall pick is a great player but it sounds like this guys team will likely end the season in a better spot so I would take the trade.

Holtby would be a nice addition as you currently only have 1 starter. I would give up Hutchinson if I had the choice. Gardiner hasn't been good this year but he has potential and Hutchinson will be a backup in Winnipeg for a while. The 2nd piece I would want is the 2016 draft pick. Griffith has been good but if this guys team is bad this year it will likely be the same next year and I think that hypothetical player will be better than Griffith. I also think that pick would have more trade value than Griffith.

[His Dudeness]

Thanks to both who have responded so far - rep given to both. I'm hoping to get some more views. A friend in the pool (we bounce trades off each other) doesn't like the trade for me as he sees JVR as the best player in the deal) and isn't as high on Holtby as many on this site. But he can see both sides of the argument. He basically says he wouldn't go further than my last offer to the other guy, which was JVR/Gardiner/Huthchinson/his2015pick for Holtby/McDonagh/Griffith/his2016pick. I'm leaning towards holding the line at that.

[Kofax]

What does the min/max mean? Is that how many players you can have rostered? Or the number of games that they play a week? It looks like that is a roster limit, not games played limit so I will continue under that assumption.

How many goalies slots do you have? Can you start both Crawford and Holtby on the same night? Based on the number of teams and that you have to have 2 goalies rostered, I am assuming there is only one goalie roster spot, but we'll analyze for both 1 and 2 spots.

Basically I'm going to look at it like this. Gardiner and Hutchison don't really factor in, I'm not worried about them. I don't think McDonagh is going to provide many more points than what you already own, so lets discount him too and I don't think Griffith factors heavily here either. So you're moving:

JVR/2015 1st for Holtby/2016 1st.

JVR is probably about a 65-70 point forward, we'll say he brings in about 275 points. So I would want Holtby to probably put up about 300 points in order to facilitate that pick downgrade as I expect this 2015 draft to be better than the 2016 draft. So what kind of stats does Holtby have to give you? Two scenarios:

1 G Roster Spots: If you only have one goaltending slot and you CANNOT get Holtby in every game, only off nights when Crawford is not playing, you maybe get him in for 50% of his starts, meaning he maxes out at 150 points. Not nearly enough to make this trade worthwhile and I pass.

2 G Roster Spot: If you have two goaltending slots and you CAN get Holtby in EVERY game. Last year he put up 23/4/4 in 48 games for 243 points. Say he takes a step forward this year, 55 games 29/5/5, that's 306 points, which is about where you want to be. If this is the case, I make the trade.

[2014olympicgold]

Ya I’d do it, especially because I don’t think this year’s draft is really that deep if I’m correct. Outside of the top 5, it’s not too astounding. A dedicated, driven, and lucky GM can work the FA/WW and some trades to jump over uninterested bottom dwellers to make the pick you own, not important.

[His Dudeness]

Thanks Kofax. I have to start 2 goalies at all times and can carry a max of 3 on roster. I have to start at least 5 dmen at all times, can start up to 7 dmen at any time, and can carry up to 9 on roster. We have weekly roster moves, so my roster gets set every Friday night for the following Sat-Fri period.

Thanks very much for the analysis. Was interested that you don't factor in Gardiner/McD.

[His Dudeness]

Ya I’d do it, especially because I don’t think this year’s draft is really that deep if I’m correct. Outside of the top 5, it’s not too astounding. A dedicated, driven, and lucky GM can work the FA/WW and some trades to jump over uninterested bottom dwellers to make the pick you own, not important.

Thanks for replying. I thought I read that 2015 was supposed to be very deep but maybe I'm mistaken.

[dooley89]

Once this guy gets your pick he will tank, without a doubt lol
You can get more!

[His Dudeness]

Once this guy gets your pick he will tank, without a doubt lol
You can get more!

You mean once he gets his pick? Yes, agreed! But we've been at this for weeks so I can't get more than what I'm holding firm on, which is my JVR/Gardiner/Huthchinson/his2015pick for his Holtby/McDonagh/Griffith/his2016pick.

[Kofax]

Thanks Kofax. I have to start 2 goalies at all times and can carry a max of 3 on roster. I have to start at least 5 dmen at all times, can start up to 7 dmen at any time, and can carry up to 9 on roster. We have weekly roster moves, so my roster gets set every Friday night for the following Sat-Fri period.

Thanks very much for the analysis. Was interested that you don't factor in Gardiner/McD.

I'm surprised you start 2 goalies in a 24 team league. That being the case, Holtby has TREMENDOUS value, and I make this trade easily.

(aside, understanding that 5 max thing, then yes, McDonagh factors in a bit and provides an upgrade for your 5th D slot meaning I like the trade even more. I would make it accept now).