Draft Strategy - Stats vs "Ranking" vs. Gut?

[vonderpibe]

I've got my leagues draft tonight for a Keeper league (but this is the first year, which is why I posted it here). We only keep 2 players, and the rule for the keeper is that they cannot have been drafted in the first 2 rounds.

League is: 12 Team, Yahoo! Head to Head, with daily player starts, and minimum 3 goalie starts per week (No max for G or Skaters).

The positions are: 3C, 2LW, 2RW, 2W, 2F, 4D, 2G, 3BN, and 2 IR.

Skater categories are: G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, BLKS
Goalie categories are: W, GAA, SV%, SHO


Now come the drafting questions:

I used a weighted average between the past 2 years (2 x 2014, 1 x 2013) and got Fantasy Hockey Geek (FHG) rankings for my categories, which is what I will base most of my questions on (and use for examples).

Crosby, Ovechkin, and Seguin to be the top choices for my league with the weighted average. Obviously, if I can, I will draft Ovie or Syd. The trouble comes to when those two are gone - Do I opt for Seguin or do I opt for another one of the classic top 10 (Tavares, Giroux, Stamkos, Perry, Getz...et.)

This scenario above might come up a few times in which a player that FGH rates more valuable might not be the best player available, or that a different position might be more crucial. What should I look to do here?

Coming into the Second round, my FGH manipulation has Shea Webber ranked as the #1 D. If Subban/Karlsson are still available, would you go for Webber or Karlsson (I lean more towards Karlsson than Subban). Alternatively, I could go for someone like Pavelski, who would also be good in this type of league and forego a top D.

In terms of other D's for my team, I am liking: Carlson, AP, Yandle, Buff, Burns, Markov, Hedman or Kronwall.

In terms of Goalies, I am thinking of picking mine up sometime in the3rd - 6th Round. If Price is available, I'll take him. Otherwise, I was thinking of targeting Schnider and/or Rinne. Other options I considered later in the draft would be Holtby, Anderson (OTT), Lehtonen, or Elliot (with Allen lock). Out of these G, which would you think would be the best bet? Any other options I am missing?


Overall, I am thinking of drafting D and G about 1 round before their average if I don't think I can get them the next round. Is this a good strategy to take? The main reason would be that these guys are harder to come by than Fs.

[Pengwin7]

For me, all strategies start with goalies.
I'm a firm believer that you can value draft goalies from STL, ANA, MIN this year and get great value.
There's a bit of a hitch here, because you only have 3 BN spots, so if you draft a tandem, you need a bench slot for one.
Tough one, but I'd probably still try to late draft F.Andersen (ANA, 8th round-ish), the MIN tandem (Backstrom/Kuemper around rounds 11,12). That's enough to start the year. *KEY: Draft them both, close together, if you are near a turn.*
Then, throughout the year you'll get good at streaming in back-ups daily, like Svedberg (BOS) who will play a lot because BOS has a lot of back-to-back games where Rask will only start 1 of 2.

From there, with 6 skater cats.
It's all about the Blocks, 'bout the Blocks... no trouble. (All about the Bass... bout that Bass... no treble)
You need ALL FOUR defensemen to get Blocks to take this category.
FHG ranks Weber higher than Subban/Karlsson because Weber gets you some blocks built-in to push his total value higher than the offensively-dynamic Subban/Karlsson.
But Subban's best value is with PIM and Karlsson takes a hit because his +/- will probably be dreadful.

Want a HUGE advantage... here it is... Brent Burns, draft him 7th round. He's a D with RW/D eligibility.
Which means, if you need a 5th D to win "BLKS", you slot Burns in your RW.
Boom. You've got 5 D, everybody else has 4.
Don't miss that opportunity.
He's the only D I'd draft early though.

With 11F slots, you want to hammer away at quality forwards that give you all five cats: G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG.
I know Weber looks good per FHG, but you've got 11F/4D.
Weber is nice because he gives you the BLK needed to win that category.
But I just gave you a better strategy: Draft Burns and slot him in your RW. (5D)

Knowing this, you don't need BLK built-into your defense.
You can late draft all 4D.
Guys like Marek Zidlicky and Erik Johnson and Slava Voynov will give you enough BLK that Burns will push you ahead as your 5th D.

Knowing you can late draft D and late draft G.
Your top 6 rounds can all be forwards.
Power away at that and do NOT overlook +/-.
Bergeron (4th or 5th round) and Krejci (6th round) are key picks.

1. Awesome forward
2. Awesome forward
3. Awesome forward
4. Awesome forward
5. Awesome forward (Bergeron, if he looks to slide, take him in 4 if he does not)
6. Awesome forward
7. Brent Burns
8. F.Andersen (ANA-G)
9. Awesome forward
10. Awesome forward
11. N.Backstrom (MIN-G)
12. Kuemper (MIN-G)

More forwards with BLK defensemen (on good teams for +/-) towards end of draft.

My 2 cents.
Good luck.

[LawMan]

I agree with everything Pengwin said.

I'll add that when using a two-year weighed average you need to pay special attention to guys who missed a bunch of time due to injuries. At the very top end I'm looking at Stamkos and Tavares. This is scoring is pretty awesome for Stamkos and I would slot him in 3rd after Crosby/Ovechkin. Stamkos is usually an Iron-Man and it took a broken leg to sideline him, that's not exactly and injury you're worried about him aggravating again. Similar with Tavares, he's going to fall down because he missed a lot of time last season (and a poor +/-) but I would have him top-5 given that I consider him healthy and am projecting him upwards.