Bodog Player Props 2014-2015 (i.e. Over/Unders): The Pengwin7 Challenge

[Pengwin7]

Player props have been released (bodog Europe).
I have had a really, really good track record at these.
I'll post the whole list.

Rules:
1. Pick over/under on 12 players of your choice.
2. You must pick at least TWO "Overs".
3. Players MUST play in their team's first NHL game of regular season for bet to be valid. Pick an over/under on another guy before puck drop.
4. To Pick, please use the "Quote" function and add "OVER" or "UNDER" to your 12 picks. DELETE OUT ANY PLAYERS YOU ARE NOT PICKING. Picks are valid based on the O/U point totals quoted (day picked).
5. Picks can be changed up until NHL Game#1 puck drop on Oct 8th. After that, picks are locked in. Rule #6 also applies.
6. You may NOT change a pick if the line moves in an unfavourable direction to your choice. i.e. If you pick Karlsson OVER 68.5pts... and the line moves to 64.5pts, you may not hop OUT.
ex.

Here is the list Sept 30 / Oct 01 / Oct 02 / Oct 06
80.5 Getzlaf (ANA)
75.5 Perry (ANA)
54.5 Kesler (ANA)
47.5 Boedker (ARI)
53.5 Yandle (ARI)
39.5 Gagner (ARI)
62.5 Krejci (BOS)
62.5 Bergeron (BOS)
58.5 Lucic (BOS)
50.5 Marchand (BOS)
39.5 Chara (BOS)
52.5 Hodgson (BUF)
51.5 Moulson (BUF)
48.5 Ennis (BUF)
54.5 Giordano (CGY) / 51.5 / 50.5
48.5 Hudler (CGY)
43.5 Monahan (CGY)
40.5 Backlund (CGY)
43.5 Glencross (CGY)
64.5 E.Staal (CAR)
63.5 Semin (CAR) / 50.5
62.5 Skinner (CAR)
82.5 P.Kane (CHI)
74.5 Toews (CHI)
69.5 Sharp (CHI)
72.5 Duchene (COL)
67.5 Landeskog (COL) / 65.5
67.5 MacKinnon (COL) / 69.5
63.5 Johansen (CBJ)
49.5 Hartnell (CBJ)
50.5 Dubinsky (CBJ) *Added*
80.5 Seguin (DAL)
74.5 Benn (DAL)
64.5 Spezza (DAL)
48.5 Franzen (DET)
59.5 Zetterberg (DET)
57.5 Nyquist (DET)
81.5 Hall (EDM)
71.5 Eberle (EDM)
61.5 RNH (EDM)
49.5 Perron (EDM)
41.5 Yakupov (EDM)
47.5 Huberdeau (FLA)
46.5 J.Jokinen (FLA)
46.5 Barkov (FLA)
73.5 Kopitar (LA)
42.5 Doughty (LA)
51.5 Gaborik (LA)
45.5 J.Williams (LA)
50.5 Carter (LA)
66.5 Parise (MIN)
56.5 M.Koivu (MIN)
58.5 Vanek (MIN) / 59.5
64.5 Pacioretty (MON)
62.5 Subban (MON) / 60.5
50.5 Desharnais (MON)
40.5 Galchenyuk (MON) / 42.5
45.5 PA Parenteau (MON)
56.5 Weber (NAS)
51.5 Neal (NAS)
50.5 Ribeiro (NAS)
44.5 Zajac (NJ)
56.5 Jagr (NJ)
50.5 Cammalleri (NJ)
86.5 Tavares (NYI)
67.5 Okposo (NYI)
48.5 Nieslen (NYI)
63.5 MSL (NYR)
48.5 Kreider (NYR) / 45.5
52.5 Nash (NYR)
68.5 Karlsson (OTT)
57.5 Turris (OTT)
53.5 B.Ryan (OTT)
50.5 MacArthur (OTT)
41.5 Michalek (OTT)
85.5 Giroux (PHI)
64.5 Voracek (PHI)
54.5 Simmonds (PHI)
104.5 Crosby (PIT) / *New Oct 1*
89.5 Malkin (PIT) / 88.5 / 87.5
62.5 Kunitz (PIT)
68.5 Pavelski (SJ)
71.5 Thornton (SJ)
63.5 Couture (SJ)
62.5 Marleau (SJ)
47.5 Hertl (SJ)
59.5 Oshie (STL) / 58.5
59.5 Stastny (STL)
53.5 Tarasenko (STL)
92.5 Stamkos (TB) / 90.5
51.5 Callahan (TB)
53.5 Filppula (TB)
80.5 Kessel (TOR)
59.5 JVR (TOR)
54.5 Kadri (TOR)
52.5 Bozak (TOR) / 50.5
44.5 Lupul (TOR)
62.5 H.Sedin (VAN) / 66.5
61.5 D.Sedin (VAN)
50.5 Vrbata (VAN) / 52.5
41.5 Bonino (VAN)
40.5 Edler (VAN)
77.5 Ovechkin (WAS) / 80.5
82.5 Backstrom (WAS) / 80.5
41.5 MarJo (WAS)
62.5 Wheeler (WPG)
57.5 Little (WPG)
47.5 E.Kane (WPG) / 48.5
56.5 Buff (WPG) / 55.5
52.5 Ladd (WPG)

[Pengwin7]

My picks (for now):

1. 54.5 Giordano (CGY) - Under. I like Giordano, but this is a lot of points for any D-man on a team like Calgary.
2. 63.5 Semin (CAR) - Under. I dislike Semin and I'll bank that he'll get hurt again.
3. 71.5 Eberle (EDM) - Under. Perhaps, he figures it out... but I'll bank against it.
4. 41.5 Yakupov (EDM) - Over. Yak is a joke... but 42pts, he's gotta be able to do this in Year 3, yes?
5. 62.5 Subban (MON) - Under. I've become a big Subban fan, but this is just a lot of points.
6. 45.5 PA Parenteau (MON) - Under. I suppose he could surprise, but MON has good depth and I'm not sure he'll click.
7. 68.5 Karlsson (OTT) - Under. Great player but I'm just not a fan of the overall finishing talent on the Sens.
8. 89.5 Malkin (PIT) - Under. He'll need to play 70 games I think to hit this. I say nay-nay.
9. 92.5 Stamkos (TB) - Under. I love Stammer, but I don't know if his new linemates have enough offensive skill to help him get here.
10. 50.5 Vrbata (VAN) - Over. I think he'll click with the sisters, I do.
11. 47.5 E.Kane (WPG) - Over. Jeebus, if E.Kane is only at 24 points mid-way through the season, he'll be traded.
12. 56.5 Buff (WPG) - Under. Nope, sorry, not at forward, not gonna do it.

I usually pick a "LOCK" too... but I want to do some thinking on that before choosing one.

[blayze]

Interesting that Backstrom is projected higher than Ovie. Makes me feel good about my Backstrom pick!

Where's Crosby?

[louba5]

My picks (for now):




I usually pick a "LOCK" too... but I want to do some thinking on that before choosing one.

It looks like Parenteau is finding some chemistry with Desharnais and Pacioretty, it maybe won't last, but if it does, at least a few months, I think he has real shot at more than 45 points.

[doulos]

Okay I'll bite just for fun. Never done this before, so I have low expectations.

Eberle - Under 71.5
Ovechkin - Over 77.5
Giordano - Under 54.5
Glencross - Under 43.5
Kopitar - Under 73.5
Toews - Under 74.5
Doughty - Under 42.5
Gagner - Over 39.5
Huberdeau - Under 47.5
Kadri - Under 54.5
Byfuglien - Under 56.5
Hertl - Under 47.5

EDIT: Updated the post with the target numbers.

[Laendarian]

[QUOTE=Pengwin7;1345300]Player props have been released (bodog Europe).
I have had a really, really good track record at these.
I'll post the whole list.

Rules:
1. Pick over/under on 12 players of your choice.
2. Picks can be changed up until NHL Game#1 puck drop on Oct 8th. After that, picks are locked in.
3. You must pick at least TWO "Overs".
4. If your player is injured to start the season, bet does not count. Pick an over/under on another guy before puck drop.
5. To Pick, please use the "Quote" function and add "OVER" or "UNDER" to your 12 picks. DELETE OUT ANY PLAYERS YOU ARE NOT PICKING.
ex.

Here is the list:

63.5 Semin (CAR) under
67.5 Landeskog (COL) under
59.5 Zetterberg (DET) over
71.5 Eberle (EDM) under
41.5 Yakupov (EDM) over
51.5 Gaborik (LA) over
58.5 Vanek (MIN) over
51.5 Neal (NAS) over
52.5 Nash (NYR) over
62.5 H.Sedin (VAN) over
61.5 D.Sedin (VAN) over
50.5 Vrbata (VAN) over

whew look at me being all ballsy with the overs!

[blayze]

My picks. I tend to favour the under on these things because injuries give that side an inherent advantage, but some attractive overs this year as well.

Staal (64.5) - Over - He's been 70+ every year except last year. He'll bounce back.
Zetterberg (59.6) - Over - he'll get this if he plays 60 games. I'll take that bet.
RNH (61.5) - Over - Good bouceback candidate. I think the line is too low.
Subban (62.5) - Under - That's too high for any dman not named karlsson
Tavares (86.5) - Under I'm a fan, but too high, uncertainty post-surgery
Nash (52.5) - Over - I'm NOT a fan, but come on... that's just low
Gabork (51.5) - Over - He's got good chemistry with Kopitar. He'll hit this even if he misses 15 games.
Malkin (89.5) - Under - Obvious reasons
E.Kane (47.5) - Over - This is the year (I know, we've heard that before) but 47 is just low!
Buff (56.5) - Under - He's good, but this bar is too high for him to hit consistently, plus he gets injured
Okposo (67.5) - Under - Bar is too high
Galchenyuk (40.5) - Over - This kid will hit 60+ this year... in any event, bar is way too low.

Malkin Contingency:
Huburdeau (47.5) - Over - He'll bounce back.

Edit: just noticed the rules - added 2 more to get me to 12 + Malkin contingency bet.

[doulos]

If a player is a contract holdout (Johansen potentially) will they be ineligible as well, similar to injuries? I might need to change my picks...

[Pengwin7]

If a player is a contract holdout (Johansen potentially) will they be ineligible as well, similar to injuries? I might need to change my picks...

Standard player props require the player to play in his team's first NHL game of season for the bet to be "valid".
So, if Ry-Jo misses CBJ game #1, it's a null bet.

[kjazz]

Alright, I'll bite too. Can't pass up another hockey challenge....

53.5 Yandle (ARI) -- UNDER
39.5 Gagner (ARI) -- OVER
40.5 Backlund (CGY) -- OVER
74.5 Benn (DAL) -- OVER
59.5 Zetterberg (DET) -- OVER
51.5 Gaborik (LA) -- OVER
50.5 Carter (LA) -- OVER
62.5 Subban (MON) -- UNDER
40.5 Galchenyuk (MON) -- OVER
64.5 Voracek (PHI) -- OVER
89.5 Malkin (PIT) -- UNDER
62.5 H.Sedin (VAN) -- OVER

Update:

If Malkin misses the opener (I read it's 50/50 chance he plays tomorrow), then I'll take the OVER on Yakupov @41.5. Yes, I know, another OVER. I'm a sucker for punishment

[doulos]

Thanks. I might need to reconsider Malkin as well. Are we sure he even plays Game 1?

[Pengwin7]

Malkin... no idea.
I'll have to pick somebody else too.

kjazz - I like those picks... I paused on Benn, Z'berg, and Carter for "OVER" picks.
I just hate the OVER.
Probably 1/8 players gets injured significantly each year... which basically kills an "Over" pick.
I usually go 10 under, 2 over... for that reason.

[Big Ev]

39.5 Gagner (ARI) - Over
48.5 Ennis (BUF) - Over
64.5 E.Staal (CAR) - Over
82.5 P.Kane (CHI) - Under
67.5 Landeskog (COL) - Under
71.5 Eberle (EDM) - Under
62.5 Subban (MON) - Under
51.5 Neal (NAS) - Over
68.5 Karlsson (OTT) - Over
53.5 B.Ryan (OTT) - Over
62.5 Marleau (SJ) - Over
77.5 Ovechkin (WAS) - Over

My picks.

[kjazz]

I hear ya. Injuries have burned me so many times, you'd think I'd have learned by now. Can't resist that Zetterberg number, and I'm liking DAL a lot this year. Carter was one of my last picks, so I might swap him out still. I'm high on Sedins (/VAN) this year relative to last, so I almost took the pair of them (and still might). We'll see.

[rataylor22]

My picks (for now):




I usually pick a "LOCK" too... but I want to do some thinking on that before choosing one.

I'm probably partially biased because I own him, but RNH at 61.5 seems like as close to a "lock" as you can get. 56 last year in 80 games, 52 his rookie year in 62 games. Weighed in at camp at 192 (much stronger) and had a fully healthy offseason to train, plus progression of the whole Oilers team.