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Thread: What's the value of the draft?

  1. #1
    SteveMa's Avatar
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    Default What's the value of the draft?

    Just curious as we wait for hockey to begin...

    In a single-season league, how important do you think the draft is compared to the daily management of the resulting team? Do you feel like you can look at the teams after the draft and predict the top teams, or do you feel like it's more about how the teams are managed after the draft? If we ignore the totally inept drafters and absentee managers, what % of a team's success do you attribute to how well draft day goes?

    I think my opinion is that you can screw yourself over on draft day but you can't win your league. But I was curious what % you'd put on the value of the draft.

    Thanks!

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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    Great question, Steve. I play in a highly competitive, rotisserie, single season league and have often wondered about the value of the draft versus daily management. I think it's pretty much a 50-50 proposition. Without a good draft, you are pretty much sunk as far as winning the league is concerned. But, by no means does that guarantee a win - you still have to manage your team well over the season. I think there is a big difference in strategy between H2H and roto league management, but a well drafted team in either case, requires due diligence to bring home the title.

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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    My first three picks this year were Gaborik, Yakupov, and Anderson. Finished tied for first and only had about 3-4 players from my draft. From the year before Malkin is my only player I still own. I think it's a bit of both. If you draft great players then you have even better assets for trading. You can recover from a few weak picks with waiver wire pickups and buy-low/sell-high situations.
    10 Team keeper league
    (9F, 4D, 2G, 4 bench, 2 IR)
    H2H
    Goals-1, Assists-1, PPP-0.5, SHG=1, Hits-0.05, BS-0.05, Shots-0.05, Wins-2, Shutouts-2, Saves 0.01, Defenseman Pts-0.5

    Keep 6 (potentially 7 with a vote pending)

    2012/2013: 4th in reg season, 2nd in playoffs
    2013/2014: 1st (t) reg season, 4th in playoffs
    2014/2015: 1st reg season, 4th in playoffs
    2015/2016 7th reg season (third highest PF)

    Crosby, Malkin, Laine, Getzlaf, Radulov, Arvidsson, Rantanen, Bailey, W. Karlsson, Ducehene,Haula,
    Klingberg, Suter, Trouba, Ekblad, Provorov
    Holtby, Talbot, Varlamov

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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    I think there's another variable at play here...the number of add/drops your league allows per season. The fewer you're allowed, the more important the draft becomes. It'd be interesting to do a study to determine where the tipping point is, in terms of the number of add / drops where the importance of the draft significantly increases.
    12 Team Weekly H2H, Daily Lineups. Keep 7 + 1 Prospect (<164 NHL games).
    Scoring:
    PLAYER: G(3), A(2), D Pts(addt'l 0.7), +/-(0.5), PPP(addt'l 1), SHP(addt'l 0.5), SOG(0.4), BLK(0.8)
    GOALIE: W(2), GA(-1.5), Saves(0.3), SO(3)
    Positions - 3C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G, 5 Bench, 4 IR, 1 prospect

    C - J Hughes(LW), Hintz, Malkin, Pinto
    LW - M Tkachuk(RW), Robertson
    RW - Rust, Necas, Zuccarello
    D - Makar, Fox, Bouchard, Roy, Krug
    G - Oettinger, Thompson, Wedgewood
    Prospect Keeper - L Hughes(D)
    IR - Hill(G)

    2024 Picks - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11

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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by Referee3083 View Post
    I think there's another variable at play here...the number of add/drops your league allows per season. The fewer you're allowed, the more important the draft becomes. It'd be interesting to do a study to determine where the tipping point is, in terms of the number of add / drops where the importance of the draft significantly increases.
    Oh man...I couldn't agree more.

    My keeper league allows for unlimited trades but only 5 waiver moves. It is so difficult not to jump on that week 2 hot hand glistening away on the waiver wire. Before you know it... 5 moves have been made and it's not even the All Star break yet...and your john Tavares goes down with a season ending injury.

    The draft is so very much important but savvy management is what can make or break your draft results.

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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    I think the draft is more important than team management. When it comes to drafting, it's all on you. You make the picks, you determine who you want on your roster. When it comes to team management during the year, especially in regards to trades, you are reliant on the other GMs to play a part. FA's are the wild card. If you really do your homework then the quality guys shouldn't be on a WW in the first place. I know, sometimes guys come from no where and that's where the team management really comes into play. That being said, you have to look at things like WW priority and the activity of your league (do other GMs see what this FA is doing as well).

    The draft is the staple of a great fantasy team and to me the most valuable tool you have to create your best team. I think mid season management is important too, but if you draft right your mid season moves should be reduced greatly. If I had to put a % number on the draft, I'd say 70-75% importance.

    Great question!
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    The draft sets you up for success, but mid-season management turns it into glory. My league is unlimited moves, so it’s easy to come back after a bad draft. I’m terrible at drafting any sport. Yahoo! always grades me in the C- to B+ range, always. Lockout yr I drafted H. Sedin 2nd round, 18th overall. I flipped him instantly for Rask. I drafted Miller last yr 1st round after keepers (7th round 12th overall), and Jeff Carter 13th overall. I flipped them instantly for Bernier and Dupuis (still like this trade). Lock out yr I picked up JvR and Kadri off FA, and now JvR is a staple on my team. Karlsson went down for me 2 yrs ago, I went and grabbed Kronwall and he filled in great, I had Stamkos go down and picked up suitable replacements weekly.

    You can draft a team and do 0 moves and just start players who are starting that week/day, and you won’t win. If you draft terribly you can still swing some deals and get some luck and do well. So what I’m saying is:
    Good draft + Good management = winning fast
    Good draft + Bad management = mid to bottom feeder
    Bad draft + Good Management = Chance to win
    12 Team, H2H, Keep 6 (in Bold)
    G, A, Pts, PPP, FW, SOG, Hits, Blocks
    W, Saves, S%, GAA, Game Started
    2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1Util, 2G, 5BN, 2IR, 1IR+, 1NA

    C: Horvat, Trocheck
    LW: J. Robertson, Byfield (C), Guenther
    RW: Pavelski (C), Giroux (C), Svechnikov (LW)
    D: Fox, Makar, Bouchard, Morrissey, Gudas
    Util: Meier (LW, RW)
    G: Oettinger, Georgiev, Samsonov, Woll


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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    i knda think of it as a new coach going to a top team like chicago or boston. they still have a good chance just by being a good coach. if their a great coach they can win it. if there a bad coach theyll still do ok. i think the players you have do the most. say 65%. and the management plays the rest. on the other hand a great coach in buffalo would maybe make the playoofs.
    of course theres always a bit of luck too.
    10 team Full Keeper Roto League
    4C-4LW-4RW-6D-2G-5bench-unlimited farm.

    C= eichel,horvat,malkin,kuznetsov
    LW= forsberg,kreider,lee,b.tkchuch,hertle,granlund
    RW= reinhart,radulov,hoffman,laine,hayes
    D= doughty,ghostebehere,karlsson,jones,klefbom,dahlin ,skjei
    G= price,murray,grubauer,georgiev,ullmark,samsonov

    under250gp=nichushkin,tuch,mathesson,marino,pujuja rvi,hosang,terry,andersson,j.hughes,patrik,crouse, zadina,podkolzin,k.miller,nedeljkovic,kravtsov,hay ton

    --G,A,P,PPP,SHP,GWG,PIMS,+/-,SOG,hits,FOW,blks-Wins,GAA,SV%,saves,SO

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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    You have to put the time in at both to be successful. Draft prep is important but so too is finding gems that are lesser knowns that turn into waiver claims, guys such as Palat that seemingly came from out of nowhere and probably was on nobodys radar at draft time last year.

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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by Referee3083 View Post
    I think there's another variable at play here...the number of add/drops your league allows per season. The fewer you're allowed, the more important the draft becomes. It'd be interesting to do a study to determine where the tipping point is, in terms of the number of add / drops where the importance of the draft significantly increases.
    That's the correct answer, that in addition to how easy the league is to trade within. I can win with an auto-draft team if the league permits many add/drops and the GMs are eager to trade. It's all about your ability to fix any draft day screw ups. It's a lot of work to go that route though, especially all within a single season, much better to draft well and to trade/acquire well.
    14 team H2H fantasy points league
    G=3 A=2 PPP=1.5 PIM/Hits/BS=0.25
    W=4 SO=6 GA=-1.25 SV=0.15

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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    I think a good draft is more important, but good management will put you over the top.
    Drafting well will give you more options to play, and may give you trade options you wouldn't have had otherwise.

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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    Great points!

    I think the draft is absolutely critical. Its also an area where a knowledgable/savvy owner can gain an edge. If that same owner can gain an edge through shrewd trading, pickups and roster management- its gonna be hard to close the gap. I will say this though- you can re-bound from a bad draft and conversely you can sabotage yourself from a great draft with bad roster management. In fact Ive done the latter.

    About six years ago I joined a league with my Dad. He's in sales and kind of set it up just as a way of keeping in touch with people in his network. We ended up filling it out with a co-worker of mine and a buddy from the pub I was going too. Great guys- love hockey- but pretty squarely in the "casual fan" demographic- most had never done pools- or just kind of messed around with the free public leagues in yahoo. Armed with my secret weapon (dobbers guide) and an elite covert organization backing me (the members on these boards)- I went in the draft confidently... and I knocked it out of the park! It was a dobberforums dream team. I remember feeling giddy near the start- and by the end I was so cocky I actually felt bad for the other owners!

    After the draft- I basically went on auto pilot mode. I focused a lot of my energy on my main keeper and I was in a dobber challenge entry tier league that year too. I missed out on the Palats of the world (emerging waiver talent). I didnt send any trade offers, I didnt respond quiockly to slow starts or injury concerns, I did not pay attention to what specific cats were coming up short each week, and I even missed couple lineup changes (in a weekly format- doh!).

    I sank like a stone. By the time I "wised up" it was too late. I even pulled off a fairly big trade to try to get back in it. I managed to climb from 10th to 8th I think? Still two spots out of the playoffs. I was shocked. Looking at my roster I literally didnt even understand how this could happen? Lol- I definitely ranted on these boards a few times- hahaha! Its clear now though. Just your basic everyday bad roster management.

    To add insult to injury- my old co-worker from the meat shop- ended up finishing 4th and having a strong push in the playoffs to finish 2nd (in the money). He auto drafted!! To this day I cant go buy ground beef without him reminding me how he mopped the floor with me with an auto drafted team- hes merciless- lol!

    Anyways- thats my story. Drafts are very important- but roster and team management wins leagues. Dont learn the hard way like I did :P

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    LawMan's Avatar
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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    I can only speak to 1-year leagues. In a 1-year league everyone goes into draft day even and without a good draft I don't think it's possible to win a league that has other knowledgeable managers. Sure you can add up and coming free agents and you can make quality trades but the top end talent is only available for free 1-day a year and that's draft day. If you make a few bad picks in the high rounds you're in a significant hole from day 1.

    Putting numbers on it regarding succes I'd say draft accounts for 50%, management 30% and dumb luck 20%.
    12 team H-2-H 1 year league, daily roster changes, 3 goalie start minimum/week
    2xC, 2xRW, 2xLW, 4xD, 3xUtil, 2xG, 5 Bench
    G, A, P, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, SVs
    C: C. Keller, C. Mittelstadt, B. Nelson, R. Strome,
    LW: K. Connor, B. Tkachuk, J. Gaudreau, J. Marchessault, E. Rodrigues, A. Lafreniere
    RW: K. Fiala, J. Bratt, T. Jeannot V. Arvidsson
    D: R. Josi, J. Trouba, E. Gustafsson,
    G: L. Thompson, F. Gustavsson, V. Vanecek
    NO IR

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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    My keeper league allows only 3 trades during the season (unlimited in the offseason) and ONE waiver pickup.

    Further waiver grabs are handled in a randomized draft in the offseason (3rounds) plus a rookie draft.

    Drafting in my league is the biggest part of your team. A couple of bad draft years can leave a team foundering.
    18 Team Full Keeper. Total points.

    Start 10 F, 3 D, 1 UTIL, 1 G

    3 Points: SHO, 2 Points: G, PPA, SHG, SHA, W, 1 Point: A, PPG, GWG, .25 Points: BLK, .1 Points: FOW, SOG, SV, .15 Points: HIT, -.05 Points: FOL, -.15 Points: GA

    Forwards: Backstrom, Barre-Boulet, Beauvillier, Caufield, Dickinson, Donato, Donskoi, Gourde, Greenway, Horvat, Kase, Keller, Kuznetsov, MacKinnon, Marchessault, J. T. Miller, Sikura, Tarasenko, Zegras

    Defense: Barrie, Brannstrom, Cholowski, Honka, Matheson, Pulock, Shattenkirk

    Goal: Dubnyk, Jarry, Markstrom, Merzlikins



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    Default Re: What's the value of the draft?

    also another thing in my league was, the other gm who tied me for first, got exceptionally lucky the first draft and it is really the only reason his team is great and not just good. He landed Stamkos and then Ovechkin in the second round two seasons ago... it was dumb. I was waiting for him to come to me in the snake, but probably would've been best advising others to take him. It was the first draft of our league (third one this year). Without Ovi and his trade rape of Weber before we got veto, his team would probably not be good. That draft changed everything haha.

    Also on a side not, in my league Karlsson is now the most valuable according to Dobbers projections. Does this make sense!? My Crosby is no longer number 1 ( lol. Maybe Karlsson doesn't get 115 hits, last season seemed like an anomaly.
    10 Team keeper league
    (9F, 4D, 2G, 4 bench, 2 IR)
    H2H
    Goals-1, Assists-1, PPP-0.5, SHG=1, Hits-0.05, BS-0.05, Shots-0.05, Wins-2, Shutouts-2, Saves 0.01, Defenseman Pts-0.5

    Keep 6 (potentially 7 with a vote pending)

    2012/2013: 4th in reg season, 2nd in playoffs
    2013/2014: 1st (t) reg season, 4th in playoffs
    2014/2015: 1st reg season, 4th in playoffs
    2015/2016 7th reg season (third highest PF)

    Crosby, Malkin, Laine, Getzlaf, Radulov, Arvidsson, Rantanen, Bailey, W. Karlsson, Ducehene,Haula,
    Klingberg, Suter, Trouba, Ekblad, Provorov
    Holtby, Talbot, Varlamov

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