Emu Squawks- Evander's Pain

[Fighting_Emu]

Who is Evander Kane? A polarizing figure to be sure. The former Vancouver Giant is easy to spot with his understated hairstyle. Also- you might want to make sure that if you go for dinner, you're sure to pick up the tab unless you want this to happen. All jokes aside though, its sometimes hard to get a read on what kind of fantasy asset he actually is. His most recent injury tarnished season will surely have him slipping on draft boards- but do the underlying numbers support this decline?

Looking at Evander Kane's stats it's fairly tempting to point to his 3rd year high of 57 points and make the argument that he's been struggling to find that form. This can be very misleading though- as he's actually maintained the same point per game pace of 0.7 over the last 3 years. That works out to a 60 point pace over an 82 games schedule. His average of 30 goals pro-rated, and approximately 90 penalty minutes make him a true multi-cat threat (last years 177 hits certainly don't hurt either). Decent numbers to be sure- but when you start to crunch the numbers further down the stat column- one can start to get a little giddy. Evander Kane has averaged an absolutely insane shots on goal rate of 3.9/game- good for- wait for it... 322 shots per season! Keep in mind this rate has been consistent over 3 years. So to put things in perspective for those asking about our "enigmatic under-achiever's" breakout potential- all he has to do, is literally stay healthy for 82 games and you are looking at a 30 goal, 60 point, sog machine that will not hurt you in the pims/hits department.

In a vaccum- thats an extremely solid fantasy own- but is there anything to indicate a breakout this year? The Jets (again) did virtually nothing to compliment their scoring core (sorry but replacing Jokinen with Perrault doesn't cut it) and the controversy surrounding Kane's commitment to the Jets going forward, only raises more questions. In an odd twist though I am prone to believe that said controversy will be a boon for fantasy owners. Logically speaking you'd have to think it is absolutely in the Jets best interest to give him as many plum offensive minutes as he can handle. Optimistically speaking- he would then go on to have a career year, establish himself as a star player, and absolve any ill will between the himself and the city of Winnipeg going forward. Even if we were more pessimistic- and he did indeed request a trade- it's still in their best interest. By showcasing him and doing their best to cushion his statline they are essentially creating a more desirable trade commodity. A quick look at Frozen Pool (an absolutely fantastic free resource offered throught this very site)- and we can see there is indeed room to increase his powerplay time. The bulk of those prime minutes went to the Ladd/Little/Wheeler line. Although fantastic in their own right- my gut tells me the coaching staff will find room for Kane on that topline powerplay, based on the reasons listed above. With an extremely modest 5 powerplay points last year it is easy to picture a meaningful step forward in this regard. Call me a dreamer but I dont even think an extra 10 power play points are that unreasonable if he is indeed showcased with those critical minutes.

Not sold? Here's some more icing on that Evander cake. His 7.6% shooting % last year is not in line with his career average of 9.1%. When you shoot as often as he does- that 2% actually makes a pretty big impact with a hypothetical 6 more goals being feasible if he can get that number in line with his career averages. This is not a hard science of course- but it speaks to yet more untapped upside.

So what are we left with?

Barring any significant change- he is a 30/30 guy with ridiculous shots on goal totals and a very healthy dosage of pims/hits. If my gut is right and he carves out some meaningful time on the PP (sprinkle in a little shooting % correction)- and you could easily be looking at a 35 goal player capable of point totals in the 70-75 range. Of course this number is dependent on Evanders commitment to improving and his ability to stay healthy- but based on track record alone- these are attainable numbers. At 23- he's still got so much room to grow, if he can piece together a modest breakout this season- I have little doubt we'd be talking about him with the fantasy elite by this time next year. I have a feeling people will cite his 41 points as the reason they let him slide down the board on draft day. Don't be that guy.

[leafsfan89]

He is also a beast if your league counts hits! 173 last year!

[Fighting_Emu]

He is also a beast if your league counts hits! 173 last year!

Lol- Ill add that...

[Axeman33]

This runs nicely off my Thursday Thumbs poll earlier.

[Fighting_Emu]

This runs nicely off my Thursday Thumbs poll earlier.

Nice!! Some forum synergy- love it!

[Magicstew]

Quit pumping up Evander as I am hoping he slides in my draft Want to see what he does with a full year of Paul Maurice as coach.
If he wants out of Wpg - then put up the stats so we get fair market value or else honour your contract.

[MJFP]

I'm going to have to start following your posts more now that we're in a league together

[dbrzrk]

Incredible post Emu... That is some fantastic work!!! A nice break from the this guy v this guy posts ...(Not ripping on anyone as i often make posts like that lol)

[Pengwin7]

Beauty thread EMU!!!

[Beareo]

Great stuff. I agree with it all. I've owned Evander in 1 of my leagues for the last 3 years (ever since that 57 pt breakout)… patiently(some people use a different word here) waiting haha.
I've spent a lot of time analyzing E. Kane. He is in great shape this year in terms of line mates (which is a first for Kane). Scheifele and Kane hit it off well last year (before Scheifele went down with an injury) -- and it looks like Big Buff or Wheeler will play on Kane's line. Wheeler played a bit with Kane at the end of last year and with Trouba stepping up, it is possible to keep Byfuglien at wing. These are big upgrades over what he has been playing with over the last 3 years.
My guess is they put Wheeler with Kane/Scheifele -- as Scheifele/Kane/Byfuglien sounds like a defensive nightmare.

For Evander's production, I think everything hinders on his PP time. For some reason they haven't been using this sniper on the #1 PP unit for the last 3 years. The jets seems to favour little/ladd/Wheeler. With Maurice at the helm, maybe this changes. But without the PP production (he had 5 PP pts last year) he will struggle to crack 60 pts. If he can get into that 15-20 PP point level (which should be very do-able for such an offensive player)… well I think everything hinders on this. Whether he becomes an elite fantasy player or not.

[wendelclark17]

Great post Emu! I have to spread it a around but will send you some Rep when I can. I'm not a huge fan but you bring up some very good points re his SH% and his PP points being low last season.

[pmorrow]

Nice post. As a Kane owner I have my fingers crossed. Even if he only puts up 55-60 points he's still one of the best players to own in all of multicat, but he has the upside add 10-20 pts to that...now that's a spicy meatball!