Draisaitl to Europe if he doesn't stick with the team?

[Carcillo]

Oilers aside, how often do #3 overall forward draft picks start the NHL after they are drafted.

Drouin - No
Galchenyuk - Yes
Huberdeau - Yes
Duchene - Yes
Turris - Yes
Toews - No
Horton - Yes

So, that's the past 10 years. Only 2 of those guys didn't start in the NHL, so it's not exactly an Edmonton Oiler situation with that particular pick. At that spot you are getting a highly talented individual that has good chances of being ready to go at the NHL level.

However, an interesting question could be SHOULD those guys have started right away? That's a whole other discussion.

Huberdeau and Turris didn't made the jump immediately. Turris played one year in college after being drafted and Hubs stayed in juniors for one more year. So that will made four against three in favor of players who didn't made the jump immediately. And Galch is a special case as he got half a season in juniors because of the lockout.

[Zorro]

Crazy to think that Toews didn't jump right in! He was more NHL-ready than all them put together

The Blackhawks were really bad back in those days, so they weren't gaining anything by rushing him into the lineup.. I remember going to Chicago on a roadtrip with the boys and catching two Blackhawk games.. The rink was only half full for both the Thursday and Saturday games, ad both were divisional matchups.. So bringing in Toews wasn't a high priority the year he was drafted..

[Shift Disturber]

Unless the player is super special, I'm all for sending kids back to junior for one more year I still think Monahan should have gone back.

[Shift Disturber]

The Blackhawks were really bad back in those days, so they weren't gaining anything by rushing him into the lineup.. I remember going to Chicago on a roadtrip with the boys and catching two Blackhawk games.. The rink was only half full for both the Thursday and Saturday games, ad both were divisional matchups.. So bringing in Toews wasn't a high priority the year he was drafted..

Yeah we quickly forget how bad the Hawks were. Amazing how quickly they jumped to elite status.

[rataylor22]

Crazy what happens when you don't rush your prospects, even when your team is bad enough that you need them.

[doulos]

You mean like Patrick Kane? Oh wait he was rushed right?

This whole idea of rushing prospects is very confusing to me and so hard to actually test. I'd love to see some thorough analysis done on whether it has the effect that people think it has.

[doulos]

Huberdeau and Turris didn't made the jump immediately. Turris played one year in college after being drafted and Hubs stayed in juniors for one more year. So that will made four against three in favor of players who didn't made the jump immediately. And Galch is a special case as he got half a season in juniors because of the lockout.

Thanks, I was sure Turris started right away, but he only got 3 games. Galchenyuk had a half season of Jr, but still started to play his first season after Jr. I was wrong about those two guys for sure though. Shame on me for trusting my memory over the internet!

[Dakkster]

I think it's more about how few 18-year-olds are actually ready for the NHL. Kane was obviously ready. A guy like Gilbert Brule was obviously rushed. The trick is to identify what players need more time to develop and then actually give them that time. I guess that's what the 9 game tryout period is for on entry level deals. Anyone can throw a kid into the NHL. Obviously not everyone can hold a kid back if he needs it.

[doulos]

I think it's more about how few 18-year-olds are actually ready for the NHL. Kane was obviously ready. A guy like Gilbert Brule was obviously rushed. The trick is to identify what players need more time to develop and then actually give them that time. I guess that's what the 9 game tryout period is for on entry level deals. Anyone can throw a kid into the NHL. Obviously not everyone can hold a kid back if he needs it.

What's the criteria by which we can decide if Brule was "obviously rushed"? I'm not agreeing/disagreeing with you, but I'd like to know how we make that decision. How do we know Brule wouldn't have been the same player regardless of whether he entered the league that quickly or not?

[doulos]

I got this from an Edmonton Journal article

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...t-of-doing-so/

Ken Holland from his book Behind the Moves:

I spent nine years in the American Hockey League, and what impacted [me] there as I got into my third, fourth, fifth year of pro, was that I was a veteran American league player who was kept around to provide leadership and to be a good player to help the team win. Hartford would bring all these kids in – and the organizations that I was with in Detroit and Hartford, they were struggling organizations. The minute a young kid would play well for six weeks, he’d get [called] up and [provide] a little bit of spark [to the parent club,] and then six weeks later they would [be sent back] down and they were just beaten up. The league was too tough. They couldn’t make a difference. It took you another few weeks, few months to get those players back to where they [had been] confidence-wise and playing-wise. So from a player-development standpoint – a personal-development standpoint – [I learned that] people are ready when they’re ready and [I learned about] the importance of building a foundation.

So there is a perception among some GMs that rushing players is bad. I think that's fair. One of the things I took away from this is that it was bad for that player to struggle/fail and then be sent back down. Is the issue that they are sent back down? That's not clear. The concern from Holland (he's sort of done well with prospects/his team!) seems to also be around player confidence as well. There are a lot of unanswered questions here for me.

I'm still reading the rest of that article, but that jumped out to me. The Red Wings are also not drafting those high end players either, so it's not exactly apples to apples here.

[Savvy1982]

Crazy to think that Toews didn't jump right in! He was more NHL-ready than all them put together

Funny how the two guys who WEREN'T rushed may turn out to be the best of them...

[doulos]

Duchene is no slouch and he was "rushed"

[Shift Disturber]

Obviously it's a player by player evaluation. I think that in any draft year the players that do make the jump are limited to the top 3 or so, with 2014 being more the exception than the rule. The rest need more time. Back when Kane was drafted I would have been in the camp to send him back due to his size. In hindsight that would have been the wrong decision and clearly the Hawks saw something in training camp that made them keep Kane in the NHL for his 18-year old season.

[Zorro]

Kane was a 1st overall though, majority of the #1 picks have started right away!!

[vitun-tyhmä]

You mean like Patrick Kane? Oh wait he was rushed right?

This whole idea of rushing prospects is very confusing to me and so hard to actually test. I'd love to see some thorough analysis done on whether it has the effect that people think it has.

I think Zorro gave part of the answer

The Blackhawks were really bad back in those days, so they weren't gaining anything by rushing him into the lineup.. I remember going to Chicago on a roadtrip with the boys and catching two Blackhawk games.. The rink was only half full for both the Thursday and Saturday games, ad both were divisional matchups.. So bringing in Toews wasn't a high priority the year he was drafted..

I think confidence is very important with prospects so it's often more important to have them continue to build their skills while having some level of success in the minors (whether that is winning lots more games or leading the team in scoring) rather than crushing them completely on a really bad team. I think that's what happened to Markstrom, Yakupov, Turris and several others.