Derek Stepan

[distantyeti58]

What can i expect from him ?? Do you think he breaks 60 this year ??

Thanks ahead of time for any responses.

[Jouko-Pouko]

What can i expect from him ?? Do you think he breaks 60 this year ??

Thanks ahead of time for any responses.

Stepan should get 60 points rather easily. I'd expect somewhere between 65 and 70 to be honest with you. I see big things happening for him this season.

[distantyeti58]

ok thank you for the insight, i am excited for his production this year

[Axeman33]

I expect him to land right around 60-65pts. Thats a modest upgrade from his 57 pts last year.

[doulos]

Stepan should get 60 points rather easily. I'd expect somewhere between 65 and 70 to be honest with you. I see big things happening for him this season.

Ok, fire away. Why exactly do you expect big things from him this season that would bump him to a potential 70 point range? That's a huge jump over what we've seen so far.

[SeaDawg]

Here's a recent thread:

http://forums.dobbersports.com/showt...an-Projections

[Vanek! at the Disco]

Should not be a problem for him to break 60, he's on a strong team with strong linemates and he's been steadily improving year after year

[Fighting_Emu]

Yea I feel like B Richards moving does help. I don't have the numbers in front of me- but I imagine there was at least a little competition for thos pp minutes. Even if they shared time- my gut sais Stepan will be picking up some of the slack in that department. Could be wrong. Also that 44 points in 48 games (as seeds points out in the other thread) bodes well. I think 65 as a ground floor. Could legitimately blossom into a 70-80 point topline center. Marke me down for a modest step forward- 65ish with a chance for more...

[doulos]

I feel like the lockout season has made it tough to properly evaluate some guys, and Stepan is an example. Sure, he had a great pace going that year, but a regular season has those times where you won't score and need to push through, or else it can drag on and on. Sam Gagner was on a 65 point pace in the lockout season as well and I don't believe for a moment that he's a 65 point player either. It doesn't mean it's impossible for Stepan to reach that, but I just would be wary of the lockout season showing many patterns.

[MarmotKing]

I feel like the lockout season has made it tough to properly evaluate some guys, and Stepan is an example. Sure, he had a great pace going that year, but a regular season has those times where you won't score and need to push through, or else it can drag on and on. Sam Gagner was on a 65 point pace in the lockout season as well and I don't believe for a moment that he's a 65 point player either. It doesn't mean it's impossible for Stepan to reach that, but I just would be wary of the lockout season showing many patterns.

I agree that the lockout screwed things up when it comes to projections. Smaller sample size.

As for Stepan, I sticking with what I said in the other thread. 60-65 pts seems doable.

[SeaDawg]

...Also that 44 points in 48 games (as seeds points out in the other thread) bodes well...

That, plus he also finished last season strong on a 70 pt pace over a full season. If he finally puts it all together, with a full season as the undisputed top center and best forward on the team, I feel he has a great chance to hit 70 pts. He has gone on runs before, and now needs to do it consistently.

Getting Brassard locked up, as the clear #2, insulates Stepan a bit and gives him a chance to thrive.

A full year with St. Louis and Nash, even if they aren't superstars, gives Stepan the best line-mates of his young career.

I see Stepan as a strong candidate for a breakout as he enters his 5th season.

Besides, we are only talking about a 13 pt jump, which isn't a huge number with the added role and opportunity he will get this season, in addition to better line-mates and an extra year of maturity/experience.

[Vanek! at the Disco]

I feel like the lockout season has made it tough to properly evaluate some guys, and Stepan is an example. Sure, he had a great pace going that year, but a regular season has those times where you won't score and need to push through, or else it can drag on and on. Sam Gagner was on a 65 point pace in the lockout season as well and I don't believe for a moment that he's a 65 point player either. It doesn't mean it's impossible for Stepan to reach that, but I just would be wary of the lockout season showing many patterns.

If Sam Gagne ever scores 65 pts I'll eat the puck with no salt

But you make a great point about the lockout season, it skews the numbers pretty bad and makes it very difficult to interpret. I find you can seldom just extrapolate, you usually have to adjust the over-performers down 10-20% and adjust the under-performers upward by 10-20% to get an accurate assessment.

Yea I feel like B Richards moving does help. I don't have the numbers in front of me- but I imagine there was at least a little competition for thos pp minutes. Even if they shared time- my gut sais Stepan will be picking up some of the slack in that department. Could be wrong. Also that 44 points in 48 games (as seeds points out in the other thread) bodes well. I think 65 as a ground floor. Could legitimately blossom into a 70-80 point topline center. Marke me down for a modest step forward- 65ish with a chance for more...

Not much of a change in PP TOI but if we were to look at #1 PP time you might be right. But I was looking at theis the other day and the biggest change I noted was his total TOI went from 20:55 the lockout year to 18:03 last year, that's a pretty steep decline.

If you look at his numbers each year though and factor in that the lockout season was an anomaly, he's going up each season. With Richards out of the picture this should be his breakout year

[Jouko-Pouko]

Ok, fire away. Why exactly do you expect big things from him this season that would bump him to a potential 70 point range? That's a huge jump over what we've seen so far.

- Stepan had 44 points in 48 games in 2013, so the potential is there.
- He also finished 2013-2014 strong after starting the season very slowly.
- I believe he gets to play with Nash and either Kreider or MSL most of his minutes, and those players are skilled.
- Stepan is still only 24 years old, so he's just about to enter his prime.
- Stepan's 8.5 Shot-% in 2013-2014 is a little low for him.

I think 65-70 points is reasonable based on those reasons. Notice that I said 65-70, not ~70 points. I'm not expecting him to score over 70 points.

[Rocky71]

22 points in his last 23 games last season, and it's a contract year. I don't think 70 points is out of the question.