Your best fantasy hockey advice/tips

[Dikoi]

Just thought I'd start a thread to pick the brains of the best fantasy hockey community while we wait for hockey to start again.

Some people here are just starting out with fantasy hockey while others are seasoned veterans. For myself, I'll be starting my 4th year next year, coming off my 1st championship. I've learned a lot since being a rookie 4 seasons ago and I'm sure I'll still learn some more.

What are your best advice or tips you have with regards to including drafting, trades, waiver pick up strategy, lessons learned, anything you can think of...? If you have advice pertaining to specific types of league formats (H2H, roto, ...) feel free to add it here as well, anything goes!

Here are the top 2 things I've learned:

- Draft preparation makes or breaks your fantasy hockey season. Go into the draft with a specific strategy. Make a list of targeted players, potential slider and sleepers.

- Making trades is all about timing. I can't remember where I heard it from, but I believe one NHL GM once said that the best time to trade away a player is when his value is at its highest and the best time to try to acquire a player is when his value is at its lowest. I've pulled out some amazing trades for my teams by just following this advice.

[Pengwin7]

Good thread.
I'd break down a one-year fantasy season as follows:

40% The Draft
30% In-Season-Strategy (Add/Drops/Trades, how you set your roster, etc.)
30% Luck

Hard to win without all three of these.
If you have 0% Strategy and/or 0% Luck, your team simply can't win.

For one-year leagues, I mostly look to draft for strategy/flexibility... and I build my categories mostly through the most reliable ones: high quantity cats: SOG, PIM, Hits, Blocks.
And when league get deeper with starting roster allocation, focus on PPP, because it's the first fantasy statistic to "run out".

[doulos]

There are a ton of things that we could share here.

Here's just one that I was reflecting on today as I was going back over some old trades that I made (and cringing at times).

Know what type of GMs you are dealing with. I have a couple Oiler fans, and even more Leaf fans, in one league that I deal with and over the years I have been able to exploit their love of players on their favorite teams, to make some good deals.

I traded for Bernier for Andrew Cogliano (to an Oiler fan) several years ago and it worked out really well for me.

I also managed to trade Jonas Gustavsson and Nik Kulemin for Brendan Smith and Dustin Brown back in 2010 - the Monster was being way overhyped and this Leafs fan wanted him badly and kept harassing me about him So I made him pay. These kinds of things will not always work, but from time to time you can get good value just by knowing the personalities/preferences of the GMs you deal with.

[fungchen3]

I've knocked around fantasy leagues since 1991. Strategies change significantly based on different league formats; one-year vs. keeper vs. dynasty and/or points vs. roto, etc. But the advice that I think transcends any format discrepancies would be:

1. Think ahead of the curve. This is easier said then done, and it will occasionally backfire, but I believe in this 100%. Stat history and trends are obviously useful but I see too many poolies base everything off of the previous season or seasons. It's said here all time, "proven over potential." But I think what separates the great poolies from the very good ones is having a knack of knowing (or guessing) when "proven" trumps "potential" and vice versa. Especially in keeper/dynasty formats, it's vital to identify the perfect time to deal a proven commodity for a prospect before it's too late. The flip side is knowing when to sell high on a prospect or when to hold onto the vet for another season or two.

2. Intuition. I'm a firm believer that you can't let a spreadsheet do all the work for you. Numbers are great and all but you need to think about all variables. Pay attention to line combo changes, new additions to teams, coaching changes, injuries, etc. Outside of the elite and upper-end talent, there will be fluctuation in production. Don't always assume "Player X had 64 points last year so he's a lock for 60-68 next year or for the next few."

3. Don't be afraid to take risks, assuming they're calculated. For example - in keeper leagues, I feel it's worth taking a smallish, 1-year hit in order to win big over the long-haul. Something like trading Mark Streit or Tobias Enstrom for Victor Hedman a year or two ago. At the time such a move would be considered "risky" but if you have a hunch Hedman is about to burst, do it. Take the shot.

4. Have fun. If winning is the only fun you get out of a pool, then try to win at all costs. If you enjoy having players on your team who you like rooting for, acquire as many as you can. Enjoy having your team.

[Big Ev]

Go with your gut. That's it.

[doulos]

I agree fully with Have Fun. Point 4 is huge and the only reason I play fantasy hockey these days. I'm out of the cash league game as it brought out the ugly in me and I hated it.

Not sure I know how to take point 2 and 3 though. How do we actually evaluate Intuition, and by what reasoning do we know whether our risks are good ones or not. I'm not opposed to taking risks, but time and again my own intuition gets me in more trouble than it's worth.

[fungchen3]

Not sure I know how to take point 2 and 3 though. How do we actually evaluate Intuition, and by what reasoning do we know whether our risks are good ones or not. I'm not opposed to taking risks, but time and again my own intuition gets me in more trouble than it's worth.

Baptism by fire I guess. Learn through experience. Study and absorb as much as you can and it sort of becomes a reflex. For me, fantasy hockey is a 24/7 hobby because I love it so much. There's no offseason. Even while on vacation during the summer, I find myself researching prospects and/or building plans for the various leagues I'm in. After a while your intuition starts guiding you I think. We've all made mistakes. Learn from them and carry on.

[LawMan]

My biggest point is understand your league's rules, scoring and setup inside and out

Every league is different. Factors such as: scoring/categories, roster sizes, keeper status, league size, positional eligibility, waiver wire operation, maximum moves etc. All have a large impact on player value. A guy with RW/C eligibility who plays mostly C (FOW) and gets lots of Hits/Pims will be much more valuable in multi-category leagues than points only.

As a secondary point to this I'll say understand the difference between a player's fantasy value in your league and his NHL value. Every single year there are certain guys who are completely over-valued in my league because they are great NHL players. Drew Doughty is the best example. The guy's a beast and I'd love to have him on my NHL team any day of the week However a lot of what he does isn't counted in fantasy hockey. The guy had 37 points and 64 PIMs last year, he's not a top-5 D-man in fantasy hockey (at least not in my league) and so long as LA plays D-first he likely never will be.

[Axeman33]

At some point, you have to be willing to take a risk, whether it be a bit of a reach on a draft pick, or even in a trade.

Sometimes those risks pay off in spades. Sometimes they don't, but when they do you look like a genius.

Playing it safe doesn't win hockey pools in my opinion.

[Slug]

*PATIENCE* Only been doing fantasy leagues for 5 or so years and this was the most important listen I learned. The vast majority of the moves I regret making were made because I got impatient with a player way to early. A good example would be with Claude Giroux last year, many people abandoned ship because of early struggles only to see that long term it was a huge mistake.

[Savvy1982]

Go with your gut. That's it.

No disrespect - but my strategy is the opposite.

If two guys look identical on paper and it comes down to a "gut" choice: Find deeper/better statistics.

Numbers don't lie - in many cases the emotional attachment you put on players is your undoing.

They aren't people - they are numerical assets that are either appreciating or depreciating. Nothing more.

[yougo]

1- Don't trade just to "win" the deal. Do a trade to make your team better. Other GM can feel when you're only looking for a win, and they will be wary of you.

2- Do not get attached to your players. In one of my keeper, there's a GM who hasn't done a single trade in the last 3 years. He says he's "waiting on his team". Right now, he's got a loaded roster but no goaltending but because he invested too much time on his skaters he doesn't want to trade them because he invested so much time on them.

PS: You have all the right to have a man crush on a player and refuse to deal him. I have a hard time trading Jamie Benn.

3- Proven over potential. Gimme Jason Pominville over Strome. This is just an example, but it takes a lot more time than people expect for a player to become consistent in the NHL. Don't they caught up in the prospect hype.

4- Sell high/Buy low. Everybody knows it, but not everybody do it. One exemple this year could be Ryan Johansen. I'm not saying to trade Johansen because he won't repeat last year season, I'm saying sell him as the future franchise center he could become. Somebody in one of my league was able to sell high on him a couple of weeks ago, he trade Johansen+Gelinas+2nd rounder for Getzlaf.

5- Enjoy the process. If you're not having fun, quit. It's not worth your time if you don't enjoy it, and it's not worth it for your fellow GM if you're not into it.

[Big Ev]

Numbers do lie that's the problem.

if two guys look identical I go with who I think will have the better year, my opinion of them having watched them, etc.

[Axeman33]

Numbers do lie that's the problem.

if two guys look identical I go with who I think will have the better year, my opinion of them having watched them, etc.

I think you are both right. While fantasy hockey is mainly about numbers more than the name, you do have to go with your gut on what you think the numbers will be going forward. I can list all the stats in the world to you about "such and such" player but all those numbers are in the past. None of us really know what "such and such" player will do this year. That's where your gut has to come in, that and some research.

[doulos]

No disrespect - but my strategy is the opposite.

If two guys look identical on paper and it comes down to a "gut" choice: Find deeper/better statistics.

Numbers don't lie - in many cases the emotional attachment you put on players is your undoing.

They aren't people - they are numerical assets that are either appreciating or depreciating. Nothing more.

Numbers lie less than personal instinct at least. Statistics can lead you astray as well, but I find it happens a lot less often than 'Saw him good'