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Thread: Ones we've waited forever on

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    Default Ones we've waited forever on

    Brainstorming some guys that weíve been waiting forever to see fantasy impact from that have disappointed so far, but maybe arenít beyond making an impact as early as 14-15.

    Ones that have been pumped/targeted/high picks who havenít made much or any NHL/fantasy impact:
    Paajarvi
    Ellis
    DeHaan
    Rundblad
    Connolly
    Bennett
    Larsson
    Zibanejad
    Baertschi
    Beaulieu
    Armia
    Forsberg
    Grigorenko
    Samuelsson
    Pageau

    Guys who I thought they would be better quicker fantasy-wise than they have been, and have been around:

    Frolik
    BSchenn
    Couturier
    Niederreiter
    Wilson
    Franson
    Berglund
    Gardiner
    Kassian
    Conacher
    Brunner
    Silfverberg
    DeKeyser
    Wiercioch
    Myers
    Marcus Foligno
    Brendan Smith

    Who, if any, makes a (more) useful fantasy impact for 14-15 or a big leap and thus should be targeted? Likewise, who can we throw on the trash heap now, with some confidence? Feel free to add anyone youíve been waiting ďforeverĒ on that Iíve missed. Points and/or multi-cat discussion welcome.

    I thought it would be useful discussion so we can all target a late round flyer or two and mint some gold.
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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    Paajarvi, Beaulieu, Armia, Samuelsson, Pageau, Schenn, Foligno can all go in the garbage. All overhyped and not great NHLers.
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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    One of our big problems as a fantasy hockey society is that we see one flash from a guy and somebody starts pumping his tires.
    Then everybody jumps on board and then all of a sudden... the guy is the "real deal".
    Good mercy, I've seen all these guys listed before - for sure.

    The only guy I've ever invested in from this ENTIRE second list is Berglund (whose game I like very much and still do... but he's still buried).
    [FIRST LIST is to.be.determined, but I'd estimate that only 1 in 10 from that group pans out to be fantasy relevant in standard 12-team 9F/5D leagues]

    In general, I'll wait before using up a valuable roster spot on a prospect.
    My general rule of thumb:
    #1 - #3 overall entry draft picks: Typically safe, and will be fantasy relevant in 2-3 years.
    #4 - #10 overall entry draft picks: 50-50 shot of being fantasy relevant in 4-6 years.
    Beyond #10... there's probably a 1 in 10 shot of picking the needle in that haystack... which isn't worth the odds in most (most!!!) pools.

    Context is everything though.
    For people playing in 24-team 20-player leagues... many of these guys will have solid value.
    But too often, people jump on board the kids instead of picking from a decent veteran in a good situation (ex. Pascal Dupuis or Justin Williams)

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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    Paajarvi, Beaulieu, Armia, Samuelsson, Pageau, Schenn, Foligno can all go in the garbage. All overhyped and not great NHLers.
    Everyone is overhyped, except the depth guys. Very few become great NHLer's. So you could have a list of 400 guys right now and say they are overhyped and you would be right 380 times.

    So relatively speaking, with that in mind, I believe that Beaulieu, Samuelsson and Schenn are doing everything expected on the high end, and are on track to do well. As well as "on track" can mean in this context. And I don't expect anything from them in the next two years either, so let's not get down on them in 2016 when they do that very thing (i.e. nothing fantasy worthy). In 2017 it will happen, if ever, and if it doesn't feel free to release the hounds! But to reach this conclusion now isn't fair - with the caveat that you are probably right (based on my stated 380 out of 400 theory), we're talking in relative terms so the conclusion isn't fair



    Regarding the list - I've never seen hype over Wiercioch or Dekeyser. In fact, with Dekeyser I've been surprised by the offense I've seen so far. But they don't belong on that list.

    One guy I would add to the list though, is Bogosian
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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    I guess that's fair. I've personally never been a fan of Schenn. I think he's a pretty poor top 6 NHLer that gets forced into that role based on perception off one world junior tournament, a tournament I particularly put no stock in as he was the best player on a pretty weak Canadian team and it was a pretty weak tournament in terms of talent. IMO, his draft slot should have been lower and his talent level is far below what most people regard him as. Not really good enough to even be a 2C, not really having a skill set to play 3C
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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    One of our big problems as a fantasy hockey society is that we see one flash from a guy and somebody starts pumping his tires.
    Then everybody jumps on board and then all of a sudden... the guy is the "real deal".
    Good mercy, I've seen all these guys listed before - for sure.

    The only guy I've ever invested in from this ENTIRE second list is Berglund (whose game I like very much and still do... but he's still buried).
    [FIRST LIST is to.be.determined, but I'd estimate that only 1 in 10 from that group pans out to be fantasy relevant in standard 12-team 9F/5D leagues]

    In general, I'll wait before using up a valuable roster spot on a prospect.
    My general rule of thumb:
    #1 - #3 overall entry draft picks: Typically safe, and will be fantasy relevant in 2-3 years.
    #4 - #10 overall entry draft picks: 50-50 shot of being fantasy relevant in 4-6 years.
    Beyond #10... there's probably a 1 in 10 shot of picking the needle in that haystack... which isn't worth the odds in most (most!!!) pools.

    Context is everything though.
    For people playing in 24-team 20-player leagues... many of these guys will have solid value.
    But too often, people jump on board the kids instead of picking from a decent veteran in a good situation (ex. Pascal Dupuis or Justin Williams)
    Good stuff Pengwin7.
    In fantasy hockey, everyone wants to be to the guy who drafts the 'next one'.
    I think that is why we are so high on prospects and young guys.
    We're all seen that GM who drafted young guys and 3 years later, bam!, he now has an elite roster. But most of the time prospects won't become the stars we wish we had drafted so high!
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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    Grigs has been around only two years, drafted at #12 and any delay in development can be attributed to former [thankfully] management's mishandling his development. I certainly wouldn't forget about him yet.

    Marcus Foligno is a third line power forward. Not sure what anyone was expecting from him. Throw Kassian into that heap too.

    Brendan Smith is still coming into his own and def worth another year/two stash in multi cat leagues.

    Frolik and Schenn were once VERY over-hyped...I agree. Runblad too.

    The rest...meh.
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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    Schen gets better every year. He's going to start shining this year with Hartnell gone.
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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    I love this thread.

    I play in a very deep 30 team dynasty salary cap league where we dress 4 forward lines and 6 dmen each week. I am trying to move Justin Williams this off-season. I am asking for 2 2nd round picks. All the other GMs think I am an idiot and am asking way too much for him. GMs for some reason value prospects and draft picks way more than they do established NHL players. Williams was 106th in the NHL in points for forwards last year which is a very good 2nd line player yet people would rather have their draft picks. From 1995 - 2005, 31.1% of 2nd round draft picks played 100 or more NHL games and only 65.7% of them played a single game. (http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/6/2...-analysis-luck) I really don't understand how the reason GMs think this way but it makes it pretty easy for the smart GMs to acquire NHL talent using prospects and picks.

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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    Didn't see any goalies on this list so I will throw Jacob Markstrom's name out there. Still only 24 so for a goalie he has time to turn it around. There are likely a few fantasy GMs who paid a boatload to acquire this guy a few years ago and still nothing to show for it.

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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    This is the biggest problem I've had using Dobberhockey as a resource for years now is how much hype you have to sift through just to get to the bottom of the true value of a player. If I had a dollar for every overhyped prospect I read about on here I wouldn't need to win any of my money leagues, I could just coast


    I wish there was some better middle ground between reality and upside but so far I haven't found it. Best advice I can give you is to bring your jumbo sized salt shaker with you into all the prospect forums


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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    This is pretty much THE reason the best strategy for fantasy hockey IMO is to once you have a good team, keep trading as many picks and prospects for established players as possible. Let people sit on a prospect for 4 years while he gets fantasy relevant while you use the last good legs of NHL regulars. On top of owners having to marinate prospects to get the benefits, half the time they bust and never pan out for those GMs anyways.
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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    People have already mentioned David Rundblad, but I know that he has been traded in our leagues at least five times in the past two seasons, and was recently dropped by the team who owned him last so I expect he'll get drafted late by yet another sucker in our group. Not me!
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    I'm still optimistic about Kassian. Best points per 60 minutes on the Canucks last year (not that that meant a lot last year). With more ice time he could be a legit fantasy contributor, and he should get that chance next year.

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    Default Re: Ones we've waited forever on

    i was really sold on rundblad and am still hoping.
    i guess when you use an early pick to reach for a guy you really want him to pan out.
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