P.K. Subban Will File for Arbitration

[thatbirdguy]

Ultimately I think all the dollar discussions will be moot because they'll reach an agreement before arbitration. Arbitration ugly process. The team will drag out every negative thing they have against Subban and air it for the arbitrator, lawyers and player to see. It is in Montreal's best interest to get PK a deal before that because it could really affect how the player views the team.

Arbitration usually favours the player. Let's use Weber's 2011 award for example. Weber was awarded $7.5 million in the summer of 2011 from an arbitrator. Weber's team was asking for $8.5 and Nashville was looking for $4.5. This chart compares Subban this year, and Weber in 2011, along with their relative rank in each statistic compared to other D that season.



From a numbers perspective, they compare favourably. Subban is arguably more offensive and relied upon less by his team on the penalty kill. He's also less responsible defensively. He also factored in on 25% of all of Montreal's goals this year.

$7.5 million in 2011 would be ~$7.8 million today. Based on the numbers, as well as the fact Subban has won a Norris trophy, I'm not sure how an arbitrator can say he's worth 10-15% less than what Weber was in 2011 - unless the team drags him through the mud on an interpersonal level.

I suspect an even better case could be made using advanced stats, but there's an on-going debate on whether these would be allowed in an arbitration.

[thatbirdguy]

MTL is really starting to mess things up with Subban. Pay the guy. Who else has talent and would want to come play in MTL to replace him?

I don't agree, they'll pay the guy in the end. I know news is slow in the summer, but look at it this way.

The Habs had a long post-season, and didn't stop playing hockey until May 30th.
The Entry Draft was June 27-28.
Teams could start talking to other team's UFAs on June 25th during the interview period
Free Agency began July 1, and Bergevin was very active.

So in the span of 5 weeks, Montreal had to close out their season, do media availabilities, finalize their entry draft plans, have discussions with other teams on trades in advance and during the draft, sign free agents. It's a busy time, and PK probably wasn't the priority. With an arbitration date looming, he is now.

[agentzero]

I don't agree, they'll pay the guy in the end. I know news is slow in the summer, but look at it this way.

The Habs had a long post-season, and didn't stop playing hockey until May 30th.
The Entry Draft was June 27-28.
Teams could start talking to other team's UFAs on June 25th during the interview period
Free Agency began July 1, and Bergevin was very active.

So in the span of 5 weeks, Montreal had to close out their season, do media availabilities, finalize their entry draft plans, have discussions with other teams on trades in advance and during the draft, sign free agents. It's a busy time, and PK probably wasn't the priority. With an arbitration date looming, he is now.

I agree with this 100$%. Hockeyprophet made some interesting points as well. As far as advanced stats being used in an arb, I bet they are allowed if both sides consent to them and if expert witnesses are called to testify to the accuracy of each side's set of numbers. I remember from having done a mock one in front of a former actual NHL arbitrator, despite lawyers in play and stuff, they remain a pretty informal hearing and are a rather frank and open process (like, really open, mud-flinging kind of thing.. not so much on the personal side, from former decisions I've read, but really on the hockey side...).

IMO this is a move that is par for the course and is meant to keep the ball rolling. Much like during any litigation process where a party files a suit, or for divorce or anything like that.. or the crown sets trial dates down in a criminal matter.. etc. while negotiations have been going on quite a but and continue throughout the process. It just guarantees that neither side can drag their feet, really. I think the intentions are clear from both sides to sign a long term, lucrative deal. In the last deal, it was the Subban side pushing for a long term deal while the Habs pushed for a short, bridge one. This time I don't see that changing to Subban pushing for the shorter deal. I still see him wanting a long term contract, cap rising or not, as there is much more security around that. Anything can happen in 2 years and NHL contracts are insured and guaranteed. I can see him wanting the long-term guarantee now. He'll get 8M/year or so. Maybe 8.5. But what can't you do with 8.5 that you can't do with 9 or 10? At some point, when the money is so high, it becomes more about winning and the situation the team is in. I believe Subban is a team guy (despite the persona some may feel projects otherwise) and where his team situation is and how he is perceived by his teammates means a lot to him IMO. I say he signs a deal before arbitration, in the neighbourhood of a max length deal with eights all over it.

[rumplestiltskin]

PK will get paid big, this is just going through the paces I think. This may be well settled before it even makes it to arbitration