Goalie supply > demand

[Chunkys_Choice]

I feel like there's gonna be a whole lot of unemployed goalies this fall... and they're probably crossing their fingers for NHL expansion. But seriously, where are these guys gonna go? Europe? Early retirement?

The way I see it there are 8 goalies who see themselves as #1s and who are available or are rumoured to become available: Miller, Hiller, Ward, Niemi, Brodeur, Nabokov, Thomas, Reimer.

But what teams need need #1 goalies?

Teams that already have a clear #1: BOS, CHI, COL, CBJ, DAL, DET, FLA, LAK, MON, NAS, NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI, PHX, PIT, TAM, TOR
Teams that are set with decent goalie tandems: ANA, EDM, OTT, STL, VAN
Teams that are probably ok to go with minor league goalies for a while: CAL, BUF

That leaves 5 teams.
- Washington - probably doesn't want to throw away holtby / grubauer but might look for a veteran like thomas or brodeur to tutor them
- Minnesota - probably getting sick of always having their goalies injured or sick, but Kuemper looks to be their future #1 so again they probably just want a veteran to guide him
- San Jose - if they move Niemi they'll need a goalie, but I think in that case they'd resign Stalock and look for someone to tandem with him
- Carolina - " " " Ward " " " ", " " " " " retain Khudobin " " " " " " " "
- Winnipeg - Probably ready to move on from Pavelec, and i doubt they see montoya as the future in net.

The Jets are maybe the only team with a clear need for a #1 goalie.

Will Ryan Miller be forced to sign with Winnipeg because nobody else makes him an offer?

[kovalchuk17]

this has been an issue for free agents for a while now. the smart ones (or the ones with smart agents) will get and accept an offer even if its below the dollars they may have been expecting.

[Chunkys_Choice]

For what it's worth I'll say Thomas to washington, brodeur to retirement, nabokov to europe, hiller to europe, niemi to europe, reimer to winnipeg, miller to minnesota, ward to san jose.

[pmorrow]

No, I don't see Miller being forced to go to somewhere he doesn't want to go. He is a star goalie; any number of the locations with "secure" goalie situations will at least look at him as an upgrade, and trade away one of their goalies. For example, Washington could choose to go with Miller-Holtby to buy more time for Holtby to be ready and trade away or demote Grubauer.

Furthermore, the guys who don't get a job right away will be there to scoop up in case of an injury or poor performance (as was the case with Bryz going to Edmonton).

[ericdaoust]

This supply vs demand problem happens every summer. There's always guys that end up getting the short end of the stick.

[MXHockey]

The Canucks need to sign a goalie, there is no way they can roll with Markstrom/Lack.........not a chance Linden allows this to happen.

[austeane]

I think the Canucks are in a great position. They can sit tight, wait for the dust to settle and lowball Reimer or whoever is sitting at home in late July. For the reasons you pointed out, there is too much supply, and the Canucks can at least feasibly pretend they are set with Lack/Markstrom.

And honestly I don't even know if it would be terrible to have Lack/Markstrom/Eriksson battle it out for starts. The Canucks shouldn't have delusions of a cup this year, especially given that Kesler is likely gone. Giving each of their three Swedes an extended look might be better in the long run.

[havanablast21]

No, I don't see Miller being forced to go to somewhere he doesn't want to go. He is a star goalie; any number of the locations with "secure" goalie situations will at least look at him as an upgrade, and trade away one of their goalies. For example, Washington could choose to go with Miller-Holtby to buy more time for Holtby to be ready and trade away or demote Grubauer.

Furthermore, the guys who don't get a job right away will be there to scoop up in case of an injury or poor performance (as was the case with Bryz going to Edmonton).

Didn't think Miller wanted to goto wash. So haven't you just created a scenario where he does I fact have to go to a city hate not tops on his list?

I thought miller was a Cali or bust kinda guy due In part to personal ties? If so...where in Cali will he land that actually needs to over pay for him? San J? Ana? kings?

[STONE.]

I think the Canucks are in a great position. They can sit tight, wait for the dust to settle and lowball Reimer or whoever is sitting at home in late July. For the reasons you pointed out, there is too much supply, and the Canucks can at least feasibly pretend they are set with Lack/Markstrom.

And honestly I don't even know if it would be terrible to have Lack/Markstrom/Eriksson battle it out for starts. The Canucks shouldn't have delusions of a cup this year, especially given that Kesler is likely gone. Giving each of their three Swedes an extended look might be better in the long run.

I agree with this completely. I'd be super happy if they waited quite awhile to sign any of the available goalies -- Reimer would be ideal, but Hiller could sit around awhile too.

[27Blue]

Both Lack and Markstrom have one-way contracts. Only way they sign a goalie is if they trade one.

[Sulla]

Having a one way contract doesn't neccessarily mean they have to trade one as they could still demote them will just mean they are paying them a lot of money to ride on busses or they get claimed when they go through waivers (or even re entry and nucks only have to pay half the salary).

For me Nabokov is finished in the NHL and right now I think Brodeur is too.

ward will get one more chance in Carolina due to the coaching change and I think Reimer is also stuck in much the same way Lou was in vancouver and until his asking price is lower (read: he's given away) there isn't much of a market for him based on who is in FA.

Niemi won't move unless the sharks start moving Thornton etc (not a given in my eyes) as he has won a cup and wasn't the only reason the sharks lost but can see him getting a reduced workload (50-30 maybe).

There's no way thomas lands in Washington but stranger things have happened and is the one I do have reservations about

I see miller in Anaheim as they have the cap space and will sweat him a little as it allows Gibson a year as no 1 in the A and Andersson is groomed some more or ultimately traded like Fasth was.

Hillier will be in vancouver as it is the type of team that may get the best out of him.

personally, and despite the cap increasing, I think GMs know they hold all the cards but it's a case of who blinks first regards who signs where but also don't forget FA actually hasn't started yet!

[reeveta]

Both Lack and Markstrom have one-way contracts. Only way they sign a goalie is if they trade one.

Good point. However if the new GM thinks either of those guys suck he can probably sell the big cap hit in the AHL to ownership by saying 'it wasn't my fault you ended up with this guys'

[27Blue]

it's not about paying markstrom to play in the minors, it's about losing him inthe waiver process... which they absolutely would. if the canucks sign another goalie, they HAVE to trade one of them.

[Sulla]

And where would he go?! Markstrom is on the scrap heap already in the eyes of some GMs (not being able to beat Clemmensen for a starting job will do that) and though he may have someone take a chance on him through waivers his trade value is almost 0... Vancouver have already made the mistake of asking too much for a goalie and it back firing they won't do it again... Will they?

[2014olympicgold]

I thought I read somewhere Jets said Pavelec will be their goalie of the future. This doesn’t mean come October/December he’s still the goalie, but if I did read that article correctly Jets don’t think they need a #1 goalie. I personally think they need one, but they don’t think they do. His contract is 3.9mill per yr till 2017 which isn’t bad, but he signed it for 2012-2013 season, depending when he signed the contract he could be bought out without penalty?

As for one-way contracts, can’t Vancouver put a goalie in the AHL before a certain date without going through waivers? It’s not like either Vancouver goalies have no movement clauses. But if they call a goalie up mid-season, they would have to send him through waivers when they send him back down? It’s also not like they can’t just healthy scratch one of the goalies all season. It’s not like Vancouver can’t afford Makstrom’s 1.2mill cap hit for 1 more season.

Also aren’t one-way contracts more of a payment thing, not waivers? Two-way contract means they get paid based on what league theyre in. If they play in the AHL its $65k, but if they are in the NHL it’s $1.2mill kinda thing? But a one-way means they get paid 1.2mill in the AHL and NHL.