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Thread: When will Crosby start declining?

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    Default When will Crosby start declining?

    Just curious what people think Crosby's points totals will be like for the rest of his career. This August he turns 27 so he's no longer "The Kid", but he's in his prime still.

    What do people see Crosby getting at 30? 35? 40? (if he plays that long).

    All very speculative, but why not throw it out there for fun. He's a generational talent so you'd think he would put up fairly elite numbers until his late 30s or early 40s, but so much depends on his durability and how the game evolves.

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    Default Re: When will Crosby start declining?

    very speculative but heres the quick breakdown of his point totals so far and what i expect him to get as he ages (assuming nearly a full season each year).

    gretzky was productive into his mid-30s then hit a wall, i expect something similar. crosby is one of the fittest players in the league so i have no doubt he'll have a very long career if he likes

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    20: 53 gp, 72 pts, 1.36 ppg
    21: 77 gp, 103 pts, 1.34 ppg
    22: 81 gp, 109 pts, 1.35 ppg
    23: 41 gp, 66 pts, 1.61 ppg
    24: 22 gp, 37 pts, 1.68 ppg
    25: 36 gp, 56 pts, 1.56 ppg
    26: 80 gp, 104 pts, 1.30 ppg
    ------------------------------------
    27: 100-120 pts
    28: 100-120 pts
    29: 100-120 pts
    30: 90-110 pts
    31: 90-110 pts
    32: 90-110 pts
    33: 85-100 pts
    34: 85-100 pts
    35: 80-95 pts
    36: 75-90 pts
    37: 70-85 pts
    38: 70-80 pts
    39: 60-75 pts
    40: 60+
    41: 60+
    42: retire

    yeah, something like that. big ranges each year due to the uncertainty of health and quality of linemates
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    Default Re: When will Crosby start declining?

    I see a bit of an Iginla path maybe (but with higher point totals). 15-18 yrs with the penguins of great numbers, couple of mediocre seasons and then depending where the penguins are development wise maybe even trade him when he’s in his mid-late 30s. However, if he gets traded it would be more of a Sundin like exit with Crosby wanting to stay but the organization wanting to move him for assets to move forward without him. I agree with the statement above with point totals, but I think he’ll go:
    36: 70-80 pts
    37: 60-75 pts
    38: 60-65 pts
    39: 45-60 pts
    40: 45
    41: 40/Retire
    42: retire
    All low goal totals like Gretzky too. 10 goals-15 goals. I see a bigger drop off because I think in a few yrs (5-8) his speed is going to plummet, and I have no real evidence to back that up. Just mid 30’s and playing for close to 20 yrs will be tough on the body. Plus the type of super talent coming up through the NHL draft and these kids speed will make Crosby look so slow.

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    Default Re: When will Crosby start declining?

    I'd look at Gretzky's career.
    That would be my parallel.

    I don't expect Crosby to be below point-per-game until age 37... which was Gretzky's last year.

    That's a long ways away... so I'd say "Don't sweat it, Crosby owners".
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    Default Re: When will Crosby start declining?

    That date is so far down the road it's tough to even speculate. Lots of factors including how well his team is managed. He could get hurt too. Plus there could be something down the road that gives a boost to league-wide scoring (like 2006) that help pad his numbers and keep him over 100 for a bit longer.


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    Default Re: When will Crosby start declining?

    Players are faster, healthier, stronger, etc. I could see him never dropping below PPG, ever.

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    Default Re: When will Crosby start declining?

    We may not even be playing fantasy hockey in the format we are accustomed to by the time Crosby starts declining. I plan to have a personal assistant robot to handle all my fantasy dealings that far in the future. And have kids teleporting to their universities. Oh wait, they will be able to just download all information ever known from google to their brain chip.
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    Default Re: When will Crosby start declining?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gentle Yeti View Post
    We may not even be playing fantasy hockey in the format we are accustomed to by the time Crosby starts declining. I plan to have a personal assistant robot to handle all my fantasy dealings that far in the future. And have kids teleporting to their universities. Oh wait, they will be able to just download all information ever known from google to their brain chip.
    You must keep us up to date if the kids get into Mars University so we can track them as possible IGHL (intergalactic hockey league) prospects.
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    Default Re: When will Crosby start declining?

    Game is faster with more kids playing then ever before. He'll drop off sooner then later as he slows a bit just because of that factor alone. This is not the same era Gretzky played in. Faster younger kids replace older slower players constantly. That never use to happen in the 90's

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    Default Re: When will Crosby start declining?

    Considering how athletic he is I honestly don't think he'll ever really be that slow. He is probably one of the fittest players in the league, doesn't drink or smoke, and works extremely hard. I can see him staying at a PPG his entire career and not being to slow in his late thirties.
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    Default Re: When will Crosby start declining?

    selanne wouldnt be an unreasonable comparison. selanne had 80 points in 73 games when he was 40. he then had a decent season at 41...then a steep decline.

    if crosby stays healthy he should have a productive and long career. hell, he currently has 769 points and he hasnt turned 27 yet. if we assume he plays till hes 39 and produces points in the range that i listed above, he will finish with 1984-2204 career points despite missing 1.5 seasons due to his concussion and a half season due to the 2013 lockout. mark messier is second in career scoring with 1887 points.

    obviously it will take some supreme luck for crosby to not get hurt and maintain a high level of play for the next 12-14 years but it would be nice seeing him reach his peak potential instead of thinking 'what couldve been'
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    Default Re: When will Crosby start declining?

    Quote Originally Posted by kovalchuk17 View Post
    very speculative but heres the quick breakdown of his point totals so far and what i expect him to get as he ages (assuming nearly a full season each year).

    gretzky was productive into his mid-30s then hit a wall, i expect something similar. crosby is one of the fittest players in the league so i have no doubt he'll have a very long career if he likes

    18: 81 gp, 102 pts, 1.26 ppg
    19: 79 gp, 120 pts, 1.52 ppg
    20: 53 gp, 72 pts, 1.36 ppg
    21: 77 gp, 103 pts, 1.34 ppg
    22: 81 gp, 109 pts, 1.35 ppg
    23: 41 gp, 66 pts, 1.61 ppg
    24: 22 gp, 37 pts, 1.68 ppg
    25: 36 gp, 56 pts, 1.56 ppg
    26: 80 gp, 104 pts, 1.30 ppg
    ------------------------------------
    27: 100-120 pts
    28: 100-120 pts
    29: 100-120 pts
    30: 90-110 pts
    31: 90-110 pts
    32: 90-110 pts
    33: 85-100 pts
    34: 85-100 pts
    35: 80-95 pts
    36: 75-90 pts
    37: 70-85 pts
    38: 70-80 pts
    39: 60-75 pts
    40: 60+
    41: 60+
    42: retire

    yeah, something like that. big ranges each year due to the uncertainty of health and quality of linemates
    Love that and agree.

    I hope and think youre right
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