The PK Contract Game

[metaldude26]

Ah... I must ramp up on new CBA terms.
So the top RFA sheet could be 7yr... hmm... @ $9m... $63m. That'll be my guess.

By the way - you'll like this - I was researching some old threads and found one where you were very right... and I... was very wrong.
[sending you some REP]

Even a busted clock is right twice a day.

[LawMan]

If I was PK's Agent I'd be pushing for a 5/6 year x 8.5 million contract. That brings him to 30/31 and increases the dollars he can make on his first UFA attempt being 30/31 instead of 33.
I suspect the Canadiens offer 8 years x 8.5 million and the latter half of the contract PK will look like a steal, kinda like how Weber's hit will continue to look better and better in the next few years.

I don't think he'll sign an offer sheet unless negotiations stall between the two sides. sidenote: can an RFA pursue an offer sheet or must the team come to him? If I was a GM I wouldn't be using my limited resources to try and negotiate an offer sheet, which takes more time and effort than we might realize, knowing full well Montreal matches and my team is no better off.

[MXHockey]

If I was PK's Agent I'd be pushing for a 5/6 year x 8.5 million contract. That brings him to 30/31 and increases the dollars he can make on his first UFA attempt being 30/31 instead of 33.
I suspect the Canadiens offer 8 years x 8.5 million and the latter half of the contract PK will look like a steal, kinda like how Weber's hit will continue to look better and better in the next few years.

I don't think he'll sign an offer sheet unless negotiations stall between the two sides. sidenote: can an RFA pursue an offer sheet or must the team come to him? If I was a GM I wouldn't be using my limited resources to try and negotiate an offer sheet, which takes more time and effort than we might realize, knowing full well Montreal matches and my team is no better off.

I'm pretty sure the team has to approach the player.

[habs83]

The best news for the Habs would be another team to sign P.K. to an offer sheet. All they would have to do is match, and whatever amount he is sign to, it will look like a steal at the end of the deal. Read multiple reports where agents state that nobody is going to offer sheet Subban, since all teams know that the Habs will match. The offer sheet only works against a budget team, or a team in a really bad cap situation. The Habs are arein neither stuation.

Worst case scenario is P.K. going hardball and looking for a 2-year deal, in order to be an UFA at 27. Subban expressed his desire to remain a Hab long term, but it would be the best option for him, money-wise.

I actually thnik he will get an 8 years/$68M deal

[rataylor22]

If I was PK's Agent I'd be pushing for a 5/6 year x 8.5 million contract. That brings him to 30/31 and increases the dollars he can make on his first UFA attempt being 30/31 instead of 33.
I suspect the Canadiens offer 8 years x 8.5 million and the latter half of the contract PK will look like a steal, kinda like how Weber's hit will continue to look better and better in the next few years.

I don't think he'll sign an offer sheet unless negotiations stall between the two sides. sidenote: can an RFA pursue an offer sheet or must the team come to him? If I was a GM I wouldn't be using my limited resources to try and negotiate an offer sheet, which takes more time and effort than we might realize, knowing full well Montreal matches and my team is no better off.

This isn't really true. Forcing MTL into a $10 or $11 mil cap hit instead of a 8-8.5 mil cap hit is definitely beneficial to your team. And really, it can't be that much effort. Draw up a 7 year, $77 million dollar contract, send it PKs way. PK signs, MTL matches, everyone is happy. Not like it will hurt PKs image. Remember Joe Sakic signed an offer sheet and it doesn't do anything to touch his image.

[kovalchuk17]

since this is for fun, lets go with... 76 million over 8 years. i hope pk is oddly superstitious like crosby with his salary =)

[LawMan]

This isn't really true. Forcing MTL into a $10 or $11 mil cap hit instead of a 8-8.5 mil cap hit is definitely beneficial to your team. And really, it can't be that much effort. Draw up a 7 year, $77 million dollar contract, send it PKs way. PK signs, MTL matches, everyone is happy. Not like it will hurt PKs image. Remember Joe Sakic signed an offer sheet and it doesn't do anything to touch his image.

I understand that argument but I don't really put much stock in it. Sure if you force Montreal to sign him for an extra $2mil you've marginally hurt the cap hit of 1 of the other 29 teams in the NHL, so you're slightly better off, if you're a division rival then maybe, maybe it's worth the effort. I just don't think its the right frame of mind to say "hey we're going to put effort into hurting 1 other team instead of focusing on doing something that will positively impact us".

The more I think about it the more I think that if a offer sheet comes it will come from a GM desperate to look like he's doing stuff in front of his fan base. MacTavish seems like a perfect candidate for this: send PK an offer sheet for 7 years x 8.5 million (what a "bold move") knowing Montreal will match, then you can at least say "hey I'm trying everything here, no one else has the courage to offer sheet him but I did."

[Big Ev]

This isn't really true. Forcing MTL into a $10 or $11 mil cap hit instead of a 8-8.5 mil cap hit is definitely beneficial to your team. And really, it can't be that much effort. Draw up a 7 year, $77 million dollar contract, send it PKs way. PK signs, MTL matches, everyone is happy. Not like it will hurt PKs image. Remember Joe Sakic signed an offer sheet and it doesn't do anything to touch his image.

I bet Montrreal rejects that.

[agentzero]

I'm pretty sure the team has to approach the player.

Yeah, it is. It is the player that is the restricted contracting party, not the team.


Knowing Montreal will match or offer better than what any team in the league will offer, I don't see the sense in throwing an offer sheet out there unless the GM is desperate to show he's "trying" like what LawMan said..

It is foolish and shortsighted to force competitors into inflated contracts. It ultimately raises the price of comparators and of the market and therefore makes it harder for you and everyone in the long run. hockey execs aren't all that foolish. I had more than one tell me that they send out feelers to other GMs in the league about their own RFAs to get a sense of the market so as to not let things get out of hand. In the end, offer sheets are not good for business so while they are a tool to use like many others available, they are hardly the best option and in cases where it is painfully obvious where the team will match, it offers more harm than good IMO.

[golfguy1672]

Too bad the islanders don't have their first next year. I could see them offering a 7 year 80 million dollar contract.

Maybe Calgary would consider it? PK has a lot of truculence

[MXHockey]

Yeah, it is. It is the player that is the restricted contracting party, not the team.


Knowing Montreal will match or offer better than what any team in the league will offer, I don't see the sense in throwing an offer sheet out there unless the GM is desperate to show he's "trying" like what LawMan said..

It is foolish and shortsighted to force competitors into inflated contracts. It ultimately raises the price of comparators and of the market and therefore makes it harder for you and everyone in the long run. hockey execs aren't all that foolish. I had more than one tell me that they send out feelers to other GMs in the league about their own RFAs to get a sense of the market so as to not let things get out of hand. In the end, offer sheets are not good for business so while they are a tool to use like many others available, they are hardly the best option and in cases where it is painfully obvious where the team will match, it offers more harm than good IMO.

Nice post - and really, why does the NHL even allow this at all when you look at it from a business perspective. I suppose the NHLPA could have forced the offer sheet to exist, but the owners know it's foolish and not in their best interests.

[Rylant]

A couple of things that have to be taken into consideration. To place an offer sheet, the team giving it must have all of their picks involved in the compensation; it MUST be the team's original picks, not another team's. We can assume that PK won't sign anything less than an 8.4, which means we are talking about 4 first round picks. Which teams don't have their next 4 first round picks? You can safely eliminate those teams from the mix. As well, once Montreal matches the offer, which they will, they may not trade PK for at least one year.

Rylant

[agentzero]

A couple of things that have to be taken into consideration. To place an offer sheet, the team giving it must have all of their picks involved in the compensation; it MUST be the team's original picks, not another team's. We can assume that PK won't sign anything less than an 8.4, which means we are talking about 4 first round picks. Which teams don't have their next 4 first round picks? You can safely eliminate those teams from the mix. As well, once Montreal matches the offer, which they will, they may not trade PK for at least one year.

Rylant

Good point. The pool of teams that are in a position to present offer sheets is pretty limited. Maybe a team tries it, but Montreal will match or beat, since they can get that extra year in anyway, as MD so often pointed out.

[Zorro]

The Chicago Blackhawks are going to be laughing at the huge price Montreal is going to have to pay to obtain Subban.. They have Keith locked up for another 8 years at a cap hit of just over $5.5 million, WOW..

Yes, they are going to have to break the bank to resign both Toews and Kane, but damn that is one of the best "bang for your buck" contracts in the league, if not the best.. Hossa's deal isn't too shabby either..

[MXHockey]

The Chicago Blackhawks are going to be laughing at the huge price Montreal is going to have to pay to obtain Subban.. They have Keith locked up for another 8 years at a cap hit of just over $5.5 million, WOW..

Yes, they are going to have to break the bank to resign both Toews and Kane, but damn that is one of the best "bang for your buck" contracts in the league, if not the best.. Hossa's deal isn't too shabby either..

Keith's contract is an example why elite players should never sign for more than 4 years. The cap rises and they miss out on huge paydays.