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Thread: The PK Contract Game

  1. #16
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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by petegreg21 View Post
    For the fun of it:
    Colorado has 25.935M in cap space (CapGeek). They need 2 or 3 more forwards, 2 more D, maybe 3 if they want Elliot back.

    -Offer PK 8 years/80M
    -Re-sign O'Reilly @ 6M/5yr
    -Re-sign McGinn @ 2.5M/2yr
    -Re-sign Barrie on a bridge contract @ 2M/2yr
    -Sign UFA Brendan Morrow @ 1.5/yr
    -Re-sign Stef Elliot for 1.5M/2 yr?

    That leaves you 2.435M under the cap. Parenteau and Tanguay (combined 7.5M) both expire the same summer as MacKinnon so about 4M goes towards re-signing him? Macks cap hit is currently 3.775M.

    This would give you a core of MacKinnon, Landeskog, Duchene, O'Reilly, Subban, Varlamov until at least 2019-2020.

    At that point, do you really care about giving up the next 4 years of 1st round picks?!?!

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    What about Stastny, he walks?

    And 10m/year will kill MacKinnon's upcoming expensive contract.
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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    7 years/58.8 million offer sheet. Basically whatever the number is right below the four first rounder compensation.
    yup, that makes sense and the Habs will pay to keep him.

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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by MolsonX View Post
    What about Stastny, he walks?

    And 10m/year will kill MacKinnon's upcoming expensive contract.
    Statsny is likely asking a lot based on his playoffs. If this is an option, I'd tell him to take a long walk off a short pier.

    With how salaries are trending, MacK could very well be worth that much in two summers. But we've watched Pittsburgh do this, with a certain degree of success, of locking up a core and not letting them go. Give MacK his 10M and fill the 4th line with 550K players if need be.
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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    yup, that makes sense and the Habs will pay to keep him.
    At that price, I'd sure hope they do. With the new contract rules I'm pretty sure its going to be impossible for Subban to not get over $8 million annually unless this goes to arbitration and a one-year deal and even then Shea Weber got $7.5 million in arbitration three years ago. So with that in mind they might as well pay the piper.
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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    At that price, I'd sure hope they do. With the new contract rules I'm pretty sure its going to be impossible for Subban to not get over $8 million annually unless this goes to arbitration and a one-year deal and even then Shea Weber got $7.5 million in arbitration three years ago. So with that in mind they might as well pay the piper.
    Yeah they'd be foolish not to. You only get so many chances to lock up elite players like this long term. Plus the Habs are in great cap shape for the first time in awhile, they have a solid core of guys to make decisions on and they've got the money to make it happen...Subban, Galagher, Galy and Beaulieu all need to be signed so it will be interesting to see how these contracts get negotiated

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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    Yeah they'd be foolish not to. You only get so many chances to lock up elite players like this long term. Plus the Habs are in great cap shape for the first time in awhile, they have a solid core of guys to make decisions on and they've got the money to make it happen...Subban, Galagher, Galy and Beaulieu all need to be signed so it will be interesting to see how these contracts get negotiated
    Pretty much. The good news is the Canadiens have leverage in that Subban is an RFA. They can offer an extra year and they can basically count on no team being foolish enough to pull a Kevin Lowe because four year's worth of first rounders on top of a $9+ million commitment.

    Under the old rules a team could've shelled out a front-loaded Weber deal but that's basically off the table now so there will be no backdiving nonsense possible and that's ultimately going to keep Subban's salary down.
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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by petegreg21 View Post
    Statsny
    His destiny is New York.

    STATS NY (Stats New York)

    It all makes sense now.

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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by MolsonX View Post
    His destiny is New York.

    STATS NY (Stats New York)

    It all makes sense now.

    You might be up to something, although none of the other Stastnys played for either New York team at any point. Peter did come close with his stint in New Jersey...
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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    I bet he signs an offer sheet above $9M/yr and I am sure MTL definitely matches. Depending on the team, losing 4 first round picks isn't terrible. What if you lose four picks in the 24-30 range? You probably do that for PK in the off chance MTL doesn't match.

    I know the GMs club is somewhat of an old boys club/no offer sheet kind of deal, but I think some team is dumb not to try an offer sheet. If you offer PK something like a $10M/yr cap hit, do you hate that? Sure it's over paying him but you'd be overpaying to get a guy like that in trade/FA anyways. If MTL matches (extremely likely) well now if MTL was trying to get him around $8M/yr cap hit, you've added an extra $2M/yr to their cap structure. Benefits your team either way as an opposing GM. I'm too lazy to look at how it would all fit into the cap structure, but think teams like San Jose, Anaheim, Detroit, Boston (imagine that), etc. Are going to be giving up high first round picks in the next four years? Not now and not if they added Subban. So all the teams like that would likely take that deal.
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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Boy am I glad Erik Karlsson makes $6.5 million. Some of these numbers being thrown around are insane. No player in the league is worth $10 million, maybe one or two guys.

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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by petegreg21 View Post
    For the fun of it:
    Colorado has 25.935M in cap space (CapGeek). They need 2 or 3 more forwards, 2 more D, maybe 3 if they want Elliot back.

    -Offer PK 8 years/80M
    -Re-sign O'Reilly @ 6M/5yr
    -Re-sign McGinn @ 2.5M/2yr
    -Re-sign Barrie on a bridge contract @ 2M/2yr
    -Sign UFA Brendan Morrow @ 1.5/yr
    -Re-sign Stef Elliot for 1.5M/2 yr?

    That leaves you 2.435M under the cap. Parenteau and Tanguay (combined 7.5M) both expire the same summer as MacKinnon so about 4M out of 7.5M goes towards re-signing him? Macks cap hit is currently 3.775M.

    This would give you a core of MacKinnon, Landeskog, Duchene, O'Reilly, Subban, Varlamov until at least 2019-2020.

    At that point, do you really care about giving up the next 4 years of 1st round picks?!?!

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    the avs would become the funnest team in hockey to watch if they added subban.
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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    8 years / 64 million
    i'll go with this as well, seems reasonable for both sides. habs need to lock him up.
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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    I like metaldude's thinking on the number offered to PK... just below the (4) 1st rounders.
    I made the same sort of speculation on Shea Weber, two summers ago.
    [Back then, I pegged Edmonton to offer Weber at just below the (4) 1st rounders... but obviously PHI came in higher]

    For Subban... however, I think that number ($8.4m) is what would be offered by a fringe-playoff team making the RFA proposal... not by Montreal.

    When PHI offered Weber a contract on his RFA status... the offer was up in that (4) 1st rounder area.
    Quoted within that article, per Elliotte Friedman:
    Look, if you really believe getting Weber is going to mean giving up four 27th picks, he's worth it. Now, I know the counter: what if he leaves you after just one year? This is the dicey part: you almost need a nudge-nudge, wink-wink "understanding" that he's going to stay. And, if Gary Bettman finds out, he's going to CRUSH the team that does it. Google "David Stern Joe Smith Timberwolves."

    So, if it does happen (and most GMs are skeptical), the more likely scenario is this: a team calls Poile and says, "We're going to offer sheet him if you won't make a deal." (Phil Kessel to Toronto followed this path.)



    So, as rataylor22 said... what's four 1st rounders to a GOOD team that expects to finish top 6-8 every year... 24-30th overall picks... meh... if your pockets are deep enough, you can just go to the FA market.

    Thus, if Subban signs straight up with Montreal, we're looking at $9m+ (assuming cap set at $71.1m... and rising yearly after that).
    If Montreal waits, they are looking at least to match $8.4m - offered from a "fringe-playoff team".
    But, I think even more likely is that Weber-esque style contract - offered from a pockets-deep playoff team... Philadelphia - and THAT contract would be closer to $9m.

    Defensemen quality in the NHL, IMO, is thinned out more than it has ever been.
    This makes Subban (& Weber) incredibly valuable.

    For me, I think he'll sign at 11yrs/$100m.... $9.1m per year. [Offered by PHI, the bully owners of the NHL... and matched by MON.]
    For a player to touch that $100m mark - that's just magical... and I think Subban will do it.

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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    For me, I think he'll sign at 11yrs/$100m.... $9.1m per year. [Offered by PHI, the bully owners of the NHL... and matched by MON.]
    For a player to touch that $100m mark - that's just magical... and I think Subban will do it.
    I was with you until this. Maximum contract length is seven with a new team and eight with the old team. The days of 10+year contracts are over.
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    Default Re: The PK Contract Game

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    I was with you until this. Maximum contract length is seven with a new team and eight with the old team. The days of 10+year contracts are over.
    Ah... I must ramp up on new CBA terms.
    So the top RFA sheet could be 7yr... hmm... @ $9m... $63m. That'll be my guess.

    By the way - you'll like this - I was researching some old threads and found one where you were very right... and I... was very wrong.
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