With how salaries are trending, MacK could very well be worth that much in two summers. But we've watched Pittsburgh do this, with a certain degree of success, of locking up a core and not letting them go. Give MacK his 10M and fill the 4th line with 550K players if need be.
Under the old rules a team could've shelled out a front-loaded Weber deal but that's basically off the table now so there will be no backdiving nonsense possible and that's ultimately going to keep Subban's salary down.
I bet he signs an offer sheet above $9M/yr and I am sure MTL definitely matches. Depending on the team, losing 4 first round picks isn't terrible. What if you lose four picks in the 24-30 range? You probably do that for PK in the off chance MTL doesn't match.
I know the GMs club is somewhat of an old boys club/no offer sheet kind of deal, but I think some team is dumb not to try an offer sheet. If you offer PK something like a $10M/yr cap hit, do you hate that? Sure it's over paying him but you'd be overpaying to get a guy like that in trade/FA anyways. If MTL matches (extremely likely) well now if MTL was trying to get him around $8M/yr cap hit, you've added an extra $2M/yr to their cap structure. Benefits your team either way as an opposing GM. I'm too lazy to look at how it would all fit into the cap structure, but think teams like San Jose, Anaheim, Detroit, Boston (imagine that), etc. Are going to be giving up high first round picks in the next four years? Not now and not if they added Subban. So all the teams like that would likely take that deal.
12 Team H2H Keeper, Keep 17, Keepers,
Roster: 4C, 3RW, 3LW, 5D, 2U, 3B, 3IR, 4G (Start 2)
Stats: G(3), A(2), +/-, PIM(0.5), PPP(2), SHP(3), GWG(2), SOG (0.1), HITS(0.1), BLKS(0.2), W(3), OTL (1), GA(-1), SV(0.2), SO(3)
C: Crosby, Seguin (C/RW), Granlund (C/LW), Backlund
LW: Benn, Drouin (LW/RW), Skinner, Ehlers, Schwartz
RW: Kucherov, Voracek, Laine (RW/LW), Radulov (RW/LW),
D: Karlsson, Byfuglien, Josi, Werenski, Giordano, Barrie
G: Schneider, Talbot, Vasilevskiy, Andersen
Boy am I glad Erik Karlsson makes $6.5 million. Some of these numbers being thrown around are insane. No player in the league is worth $10 million, maybe one or two guys.
I like metaldude's thinking on the number offered to PK... just below the (4) 1st rounders.
I made the same sort of speculation on Shea Weber, two summers ago.
[Back then, I pegged Edmonton to offer Weber at just below the (4) 1st rounders... but obviously PHI came in higher]
For Subban... however, I think that number ($8.4m) is what would be offered by a fringe-playoff team making the RFA proposal... not by Montreal.
When PHI offered Weber a contract on his RFA status... the offer was up in that (4) 1st rounder area.
Quoted within that article, per Elliotte Friedman:
Look, if you really believe getting Weber is going to mean giving up four 27th picks, he's worth it. Now, I know the counter: what if he leaves you after just one year? This is the dicey part: you almost need a nudge-nudge, wink-wink "understanding" that he's going to stay. And, if Gary Bettman finds out, he's going to CRUSH the team that does it. Google "David Stern Joe Smith Timberwolves."
So, if it does happen (and most GMs are skeptical), the more likely scenario is this: a team calls Poile and says, "We're going to offer sheet him if you won't make a deal." (Phil Kessel to Toronto followed this path.)
So, as rataylor22 said... what's four 1st rounders to a GOOD team that expects to finish top 6-8 every year... 24-30th overall picks... meh... if your pockets are deep enough, you can just go to the FA market.
Thus, if Subban signs straight up with Montreal, we're looking at $9m+ (assuming cap set at $71.1m... and rising yearly after that).
If Montreal waits, they are looking at least to match $8.4m - offered from a "fringe-playoff team".
But, I think even more likely is that Weber-esque style contract - offered from a pockets-deep playoff team... Philadelphia - and THAT contract would be closer to $9m.
Defensemen quality in the NHL, IMO, is thinned out more than it has ever been.
This makes Subban (& Weber) incredibly valuable.
For me, I think he'll sign at 11yrs/$100m.... $9.1m per year. [Offered by PHI, the bully owners of the NHL... and matched by MON.]
For a player to touch that $100m mark - that's just magical... and I think Subban will do it.
So the top RFA sheet could be 7yr... hmm... @ $9m... $63m. That'll be my guess.
By the way - you'll like this - I was researching some old threads and found one where you were very right... and I... was very wrong.
[sending you some REP]