Ovechkin - does he ever score 50 again?

[MXHockey]

Under Oates, Ovechkin played the entire power play leading to the totals over the past two years.

Will Trotz use Ovie as frequently on the PP? I'm not so sure.

[hockeyrobot]

Trotz had no where near the fire power the Caps have in all his time in Nashville.....arguably combined. They were just a different team. For him to bring the same coaching system would be a bit foolish.

[Pengwin7]

For him to bring the same coaching system would be a bit foolish.

Well, I disagree with this statement.
Coaches most definitely have a 'system'... and Trotz' 'system' will be implemented.

Look beyond Ovechkin/Backstrom for a moment.
Washington is generally a talent-starved offensive team - very much like Nashville.
Trotz fits here, for that reason.

But most coaching systems don't require each individual player to play a certain way.
From my experience, the greater changes that coaches impose are upon centers & defenseman.
How they want those positions to focus.
[This is the pro-side towards Ovechkin not being severly impacted by Trotz. (I consider both sides of the argument in this post: to be clear.)]

Wingers (and I say this a lot) are generally the least strategized positions on the ice.
[of course, now somebody is going to show up and say "what about the left wing lock?", yada, yada, yada... ok...]

For example, some coaches are going to hammer home to their center group that they need to be responsible for the 3rd opposing forward.
Some coaches are going to insist that the forward line has to figure it out and just be sure that closest forward back marks that 3rd opposing forward.
Some coaches want the wingers to come down to the defensive zone corners to help battle pucks... some coaches only want them down to mid-wall.

From what I saw with Ovechkin... Oates gave him free-reign to go "offense"-only and score goals.
Oates, being an offensive player, would have a tendency to allow for this sort of "you are my offense, just play offense" sort of focus.
Trotz... what position did he play as an amateur hockey player? (worth the search)

But Trotz will definitely bring in his system... because it works.
Ovechkin - being a superstar forward with superstar skills - will be an exception that Trotz' system will adapt ever-so-slightly for.
But make no mistake, there will be slight changes that affect Ovechkin's game.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-relationship/

If you want a defining statement by Trotz thus far... here it comes:
“He does something special and he scores a lot, but you can contribute in so many other ways too,” Trotz said of Ovechkin.
I shall bold one portion...
...but you can contribute in so many other ways too

Here's another quote:
To me, Alex has to trust that I’m giving him the best advice for the team, for him to grow his game.
Bold another, shall I....
...for the team, for him to grow his game
(Uh, minus thirty-five...)

As MolsonX mentioned - OV was left out for the full WAS PP most of the time (and led the NHL in PPTOI).

But some coaches prefer to split their PP1/PP2 so that they can get a full line combination back together for ES1 after the PP.
With Ovechkin... if he plays the full PP1... then he can't play the ES1 after.
And if Backstrom has rested for PP2, then he now has to wait for Ovechkin to be rested to send their line out for even-strength (ES).

This is exactly the sort of thing that can change player value a bit with a coaching system.
And in this case (for example), it will (likely) be Ovechkin that adjusts to Trotz' system, not vice-versa.

In the great words of Game of Thrones,
Winter is Coming

[rumplestiltskin]

How many coaches do we have to go through in Washington before people realize how it doesn't matter? lol
Scoring goals is what Ovechkin does best, no coach worth a damn is going to try to change that, why would he? There is absolutely no reason why he cannot or will not score 50 again. He might not do it in 2014-15 simply because a new coach means a new system and that usually takes a season to break in fully but there's zero reason to suspect that he won't get back to scoring 50 goals again soon

[wendelclark17]

Listened to an interview with Trotz on the radio yesterday and he acknowledged that he will have to adapt sightly to the players at his disposal. He said he wants them playing a 200-foot game and learning to use the cycle a bit more etc etc. But he also pointed out that in Nashville he was often a line short. He talked about the fact that when they faced elite players playing at their best he didn't have the horses to match up so he had to use what he had and choke the game off a bit. He seemed excited to have some big guns at his disposal and I think he will be able to get the most out of them. I don't see Trotz having a negative effect on Washington's offence, if anything I think he can improve their overall play which should lead to more puck possession and more shots and therefore more scoring.

Washington was 21st in the league in 5v5 goals scored last year, that number will improve and should counteract the fact that they likely won't be 1st again in 5v4 goals scored.

[Canucks_fan18]

I guess in contradiction to the original question, will Ovi be the NHL's top goal scorer again? I think yes I still think he will be there battling with the likes of Stammer, Perry and Kessel but 50 will be harder & harder to get every year.

[Pengwin7]

...but there's zero reason to suspect that he won't get back to scoring 50 goals again soon

Don't be so obtuse here.
Unlike passing (which is a very low-impact physical part of playing), goal-scoring requires a bit more physical durability from one's body.

Look at the history of recent NHL elite goal-scorers:
Ilya Kovalchuk. 6'-3", 230 lbs. (Height, weight... sound familar?). He touched 50+ twice, 40+ six times. All... before the age of 27. After 27.... no 40+ years.
Dany Heatley. 6'-4", 220 lbs. (Again, similar height & weight). He touched 50 twice, with 39 or more six times... all before the age of 29. After that... his best season is 26.
Teemu Selanne. Smaller, thus IMO he was more durable. But 50+ three times before 29. At age 29 and after... no more 50+ and only ONE of the next fourteen over 40.

Marian Gaborik really fell apart at the age of 30.
Daniel Sedin seems to have fallen apart at the age of 30.
Brett Hull put up a 42 goal season as late as age 31.. but he was only 5'-11".
Marian Hossa is still a dynamite two-way player, but his 3rd of three seasons at 40 goals was at age 30... and he hasn't gone over 30 since.
Milan Hejduk put up 41g at 25yrs old and then 50g at 27 years old... but no more than 35 since.
Markus Naslund had three straight years of 40g at ages 27,28,29... but didn't hit it again after that.
Jarome Iginla knoced out 50 twice (ages 24 & 30)... but he's only hit 40 once in the six seasons since he turned 30.
Look at 6'-4" Rick Nash... a consistent 30goal "sniper" guy that hasn't touched those numbers since... age 27.
Look at 6'-4" Eric Staal... another consistent 30goal player... that hasn't touched those numbers since... age 27.
The 6'-4" Vinny Lecavalier has hit 40 once, 52 once... with four previous years over 30 goals... hasn't touched 30 since... age 27.
Zach Parise eclipsed 30 goals five times... before the age of 28. But not in the last two seasons.
The 6'-2" Alex Semin surpassed 30 goals three times... but not since the age of 26.

That is a WHOLE LOT of snipers whose last of their BIG seasons occurred in the age range of 26-30.

Alexander Ovechkin turns 29 years old... this September.

[rumplestiltskin]

"obtuse" you say? you need to mind your mouth little boy

its easy to make silly arguments when you cherry pick your numbers, watch I can play that lame game too!

50 goal scorers (age 29 or older): Bobby Hull (6 times!), Esposito (4), Dionne (3), Lemieux (2), Hull, Bure, Sakic, Bondra, Andreychuk, Jagr

That's just guys I could think of off the top of my head and bothered to look up, there's dozens more but that doesn't prove anything more than you did because youre just looking at the numbers in isolation instead of asking the right questions.

The #1 reason that the numbers of elite players decline right around 30 is that they suffer significant setbacks due to injury. Mike Bossy had nine straight 50+ seasons before his back injury forced him to retire, same with Mario sadly, its tough to play with a bad back, the list goes on too: Pavel Bure suffered the same fate due to his knees, same with Cam Neely. The second reason is because they lose quality linemates or their role on the team changes. Bernie Nicholls is a godd example, scored 70 goals because he had Wayne Gretzky feeding him, he gets dealt to the Rangers and never even sniffs 30 again. Or look at Gretzky, the great one himself. His move to LA signalled a shift in his style of play from being the designated goal scorer to the designated setup man. His back injury in LA contributed to this shift as well, why risk your health going into the dangerous areas of the ice when you're just as lethal (some would argue even more lethal) setting up your teammate?

Ovechkin has suffered no major injury (so far) that will impede his continued dominance. His role is not going to change because scoring goals is all that he does well. And his linemates aren't likely to change (at least not Backstrom) so until any of those things change I see no reason he can't continue to score 50 a season.

[Darren_Kennedy]

Good question Darren. For me, a lot of it depends on his PP production and then of course his Center.

I say he nets 50 and threatens +50 lol!

haha I like this, it sounds you're saying he scores exactly 50

- - - Updated - - -

Under Oates, Ovechkin played the entire power play leading to the totals over the past two years.

Will Trotz use Ovie as frequently on the PP? I'm not so sure.

I can't imagine that Trotz allows OV to play the entire 2 minutes like Oates was as time. We should probably expect some level of regression in PP numbers (although a possible increase in 5v5)

[Darren_Kennedy]

Well, I disagree with this statement.
Coaches most definitely have a 'system'... and Trotz' 'system' will be implemented.

Look beyond Ovechkin/Backstrom for a moment.
Washington is generally a talent-starved offensive team - very much like Nashville.
Trotz fits here, for that reason.

But most coaching systems don't require each individual player to play a certain way.
From my experience, the greater changes that coaches impose are upon centers & defenseman.
How they want those positions to focus.
[This is the pro-side towards Ovechkin not being severly impacted by Trotz. (I consider both sides of the argument in this post: to be clear.)]

Wingers (and I say this a lot) are generally the least strategized positions on the ice.
[of course, now somebody is going to show up and say "what about the left wing lock?", yada, yada, yada... ok...]

For example, some coaches are going to hammer home to their center group that they need to be responsible for the 3rd opposing forward.
Some coaches are going to insist that the forward line has to figure it out and just be sure that closest forward back marks that 3rd opposing forward.
Some coaches want the wingers to come down to the defensive zone corners to help battle pucks... some coaches only want them down to mid-wall.

From what I saw with Ovechkin... Oates gave him free-reign to go "offense"-only and score goals.
Oates, being an offensive player, would have a tendency to allow for this sort of "you are my offense, just play offense" sort of focus.
Trotz... what position did he play as an amateur hockey player? (worth the search)

But Trotz will definitely bring in his system... because it works.
Ovechkin - being a superstar forward with superstar skills - will be an exception that Trotz' system will adapt ever-so-slightly for.
But make no mistake, there will be slight changes that affect Ovechkin's game.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-relationship/

If you want a defining statement by Trotz thus far... here it comes:
“He does something special and he scores a lot, but you can contribute in so many other ways too,” Trotz said of Ovechkin.
I shall bold one portion...
...but you can contribute in so many other ways too

Here's another quote:
To me, Alex has to trust that I’m giving him the best advice for the team, for him to grow his game.
Bold another, shall I....
...for the team, for him to grow his game
(Uh, minus thirty-five...)

As MolsonX mentioned - OV was left out for the full WAS PP most of the time (and led the NHL in PPTOI).

But some coaches prefer to split their PP1/PP2 so that they can get a full line combination back together for ES1 after the PP.
With Ovechkin... if he plays the full PP1... then he can't play the ES1 after.
And if Backstrom has rested for PP2, then he now has to wait for Ovechkin to be rested to send their line out for even-strength (ES).

This is exactly the sort of thing that can change player value a bit with a coaching system.
And in this case (for example), it will (likely) be Ovechkin that adjusts to Trotz' system, not vice-versa.

In the great words of Game of Thrones,
Winter is Coming

Great post, and you get bonus points for sliding in a Game of Thrones reference

- - - Updated - - -

I guess in contradiction to the original question, will Ovi be the NHL's top goal scorer again? I think yes I still think he will be there battling with the likes of Stammer, Perry and Kessel but 50 will be harder & harder to get every year.

Interesting take. Maybe he only pots say, 45, but still leads the league. Can't see anyone (outside of perhaps Stamkos) having a shot to score more

[jcairns]

"obtuse" you say? you need to mind your mouth little boy

its easy to make silly arguments when you cherry pick your numbers, watch I can play that lame game too!

50 goal scorers (age 29 or older): Bobby Hull (6 times!), Esposito (4), Dionne (3), Lemieux (2), Hull, Bure, Sakic, Bondra, Andreychuk, Jagr

You did not list a single player that was eclipsing 30 in the post-lockout NHL... times have changed with how many goals are scored. Completely irrational argument. Pengwin7 has actually gone to great lengths to give you all the reasons, ones which I think myself and quite a few others share. You have statistical arguments, trend arguments, coaching changes, etc.

I'm going with no, he doesn't hit 50 again.

Beyond the stats, beyond the quality of linemates, beyond the high PPP totals, and even beyond the age, you sort of have to agree on this: Oates was the best situation for Ovechkin. Does Trotz know how to utilize offensive players? Yes. But OV still won't be given the offensive leash that he had with Oates. His PP time can't get higher, his expected defensive effort can only increase. He's going to regress, it's just a matter of is it two goals, or is it nine goals, next year?

[StaveOffElimination]

Yet another post about Ovechkin declining. All the guy has done the last 2 years is win back-to-back Richard trophies and a Hart. This year, all anyone can talk about is his awful +/-, not the fact that he scored the most goals in the league or the fact that is on-ice shooting % was awful this year because he played with plugs.

My favourite new reason why he is going to score less than 50 is because teams didn't have enough time to prepare for Washington because of condensed schedule in the lockout season and cross-over play this year. You really think the other teams didn't know who that #8 guy is on the PP and didn't try and take his shot away? Maybe they tried to but Washington's PP is kind of good because Backstrom runs it well from the boards. When teams did take Ovechkin's shot away Washington did well setting up other guys, see Brouwer's 12 PPG.

Anyway, put me down for 50 goals for Ovechkin. I would also say he is around 85 points next year, can't go higher than that because of how defensive the NHL has become (other than these playoffs, which have been fantastic for offence).

[Darren_Kennedy]

Don't be so obtuse here.
Unlike passing (which is a very low-impact physical part of playing), goal-scoring requires a bit more physical durability from one's body.

Look at the history of recent NHL elite goal-scorers:
Ilya Kovalchuk. 6'-3", 230 lbs. (Height, weight... sound familar?). He touched 50+ twice, 40+ six times. All... before the age of 27. After 27.... no 40+ years.
Dany Heatley. 6'-4", 220 lbs. (Again, similar height & weight). He touched 50 twice, with 39 or more six times... all before the age of 29. After that... his best season is 26.
Teemu Selanne. Smaller, thus IMO he was more durable. But 50+ three times before 29. At age 29 and after... no more 50+ and only ONE of the next fourteen over 40.

Marian Gaborik really fell apart at the age of 30.
Daniel Sedin seems to have fallen apart at the age of 30.
Brett Hull put up a 42 goal season as late as age 31.. but he was only 5'-11".
Marian Hossa is still a dynamite two-way player, but his 3rd of three seasons at 40 goals was at age 30... and he hasn't gone over 30 since.
Milan Hejduk put up 41g at 25yrs old and then 50g at 27 years old... but no more than 35 since.
Markus Naslund had three straight years of 40g at ages 27,28,29... but didn't hit it again after that.
Jarome Iginla knoced out 50 twice (ages 24 & 30)... but he's only hit 40 once in the six seasons since he turned 30.
Look at 6'-4" Rick Nash... a consistent 30goal "sniper" guy that hasn't touched those numbers since... age 27.
Look at 6'-4" Eric Staal... another consistent 30goal player... that hasn't touched those numbers since... age 27.
The 6'-4" Vinny Lecavalier has hit 40 once, 52 once... with four previous years over 30 goals... hasn't touched 30 since... age 27.
Zach Parise eclipsed 30 goals five times... before the age of 28. But not in the last two seasons.
The 6'-2" Alex Semin surpassed 30 goals three times... but not since the age of 26.

That is a WHOLE LOT of snipers whose last of their BIG seasons occurred in the age range of 26-30.

Alexander Ovechkin turns 29 years old... this September.

Wow. I knew it got bad for snipers in their later years, had no idea it got THIS bad. Thanks for the data

[Darren_Kennedy]

Yet another post about Ovechkin declining. All the guy has done the last 2 years is win back-to-back Richard trophies and a Hart. This year, all anyone can talk about is his awful +/-, not the fact that he scored the most goals in the league or the fact that is on-ice shooting % was awful this year because he played with plugs.

My favourite new reason why he is going to score less than 50 is because teams didn't have enough time to prepare for Washington because of condensed schedule in the lockout season and cross-over play this year. You really think the other teams didn't know who that #8 guy is on the PP and didn't try and take his shot away? Maybe they tried to but Washington's PP is kind of good because Backstrom runs it well from the boards. When teams did take Ovechkin's shot away Washington did well setting up other guys, see Brouwer's 12 PPG.

Anyway, put me down for 50 goals for Ovechkin. I would also say he is around 85 points next year, can't go higher than that because of how defensive the NHL has become (other than these playoffs, which have been fantastic for offence).

Definitely wasn't intended as an "OV is declining thread." A lot of poolies have OV in keeper leagues and the goal here is to do some long term planning. Attempting to forecast what the next 3 to 5 years will look like and if he will continue to produce at an elite level.

Realistically, he probably will decline between 29 and 32, a time when most guys do.

[MXHockey]

Don't be so obtuse here.
Unlike passing (which is a very low-impact physical part of playing), goal-scoring requires a bit more physical durability from one's body.

Look at the history of recent NHL elite goal-scorers:
Ilya Kovalchuk. 6'-3", 230 lbs. (Height, weight... sound familar?). He touched 50+ twice, 40+ six times. All... before the age of 27. After 27.... no 40+ years.
Dany Heatley. 6'-4", 220 lbs. (Again, similar height & weight). He touched 50 twice, with 39 or more six times... all before the age of 29. After that... his best season is 26.
Teemu Selanne. Smaller, thus IMO he was more durable. But 50+ three times before 29. At age 29 and after... no more 50+ and only ONE of the next fourteen over 40.

Marian Gaborik really fell apart at the age of 30.
Daniel Sedin seems to have fallen apart at the age of 30.
Brett Hull put up a 42 goal season as late as age 31.. but he was only 5'-11".
Marian Hossa is still a dynamite two-way player, but his 3rd of three seasons at 40 goals was at age 30... and he hasn't gone over 30 since.
Milan Hejduk put up 41g at 25yrs old and then 50g at 27 years old... but no more than 35 since.
Markus Naslund had three straight years of 40g at ages 27,28,29... but didn't hit it again after that.
Jarome Iginla knoced out 50 twice (ages 24 & 30)... but he's only hit 40 once in the six seasons since he turned 30.
Look at 6'-4" Rick Nash... a consistent 30goal "sniper" guy that hasn't touched those numbers since... age 27.
Look at 6'-4" Eric Staal... another consistent 30goal player... that hasn't touched those numbers since... age 27.
The 6'-4" Vinny Lecavalier has hit 40 once, 52 once... with four previous years over 30 goals... hasn't touched 30 since... age 27.
Zach Parise eclipsed 30 goals five times... before the age of 28. But not in the last two seasons.
The 6'-2" Alex Semin surpassed 30 goals three times... but not since the age of 26.

That is a WHOLE LOT of snipers whose last of their BIG seasons occurred in the age range of 26-30.

Alexander Ovechkin turns 29 years old... this September.

This ^^^^^ is an incredible post. Rep coming.......