Trade offer: Dynasty League

[mounD]

12-team, deep salary-cap (actual salaries) dynasty league: 25NHL roster, 25AHL roster, 10 man juniors (past two draft years are eligible). I am in the middle of a rebuild, I finished bottom-three this year and finished last place 2013. I have an offer on the table involving the 2nd overall pick in the upcoming 2014 entry draft, and I was wondering what you guys thought. Our categories are: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, FW, Hits, Blks

The offer is my Grigorenko + Matt Read + 2014 15th overall pick for 2nd overall pick.

My thoughts are as follows: if the trade came down to Grigorenko + 15th overall, I would take the deal in a heartbeat; however, Matt Read throws a wrench in things ... I'm not really sure where I value Matt Read right now, but earlier in the year I traded Mark Stuart to acquire him (if that's any gauge of what his value was earlier this year).

So, do you guys think the addition of Matt Read makes this too much to give up? I'd really like to be able to draft Reinhart/Bennett, but are either of those guys enough of an upgrade over Grigorenko +15th overall to warrant including Matt Read? Read will be going from $1m to $3m salary next season / $4m the next. So his cap value is declining for sure.

Give me the dirt, you guys ... Cheers.

EDIT: For the 2014 draft I own picks 3, 11, 15, 19, 23, 24.

[Dape02]

Grigorenko is a big risk. Buffalo may have ruined that relationship.

If I'm you I'm making the deal and looking for Sam Bennett at 2

[plug]

Without seeing the team it makes it harder, but at the end of a rebuild, and Read seems replaceable ... I say do it

[Brosive]

I have to agree with the others.. if you can get Reinhart/Bennett at #2 i think thats a quality upgrade over Grig.
I wouldn't let a guy like Matt Read sway me in any direction really.. if he needs to be added for the trade to happen, so be it

[mounD]

It's not exactly the end of a rebuild, and I also forgot to mention it's a cap league that uses actual salaries (so Read will be jumping from a $1m cap bargain this season to a $3-4 million player the next three seasons). Read is essentially an "extra" player for me right now: I'm not competing for a championship, and his value is certainly going down next season. The only thing that could buoy his value would be some more PP time and a nice bump in offense, but he's not exactly a young buck.

Thanks for the insight so far, you guys.

[zipper14]

I think this depends on if you really think Reinhart will slide to #2. If you think the guy drafting #1 wont take Reinhart, then maybe. If not, then Grigorenko is the player with the highest upside in the deal. Sure he may not pan out, but you have to take risks in fantasy hockey. Bennett is nice, but he's years away and has Kesler upside. Grigorenko is closer and has Seguin upside.

Read doesn't do too much to the offer. You're right, next year his salary makes him borderline ownable. It's nice to know the other owner sees value there, though. If this deal falls through, see if you can get a pick for Read.

[mounD]

I think this depends on if you really think Reinhart will slide to #2. If you think the guy drafting #1 wont take Reinhart, then maybe. If not, then Grigorenko is the player with the highest upside in the deal. Sure he may not pan out, but you have to take risks in fantasy hockey. Bennett is nice, but he's years away and has Kesler upside. Grigorenko is closer and has Seguin upside.

Read doesn't do too much to the offer. You're right, next year his salary makes him borderline ownable. It's nice to know the other owner sees value there, though. If this deal falls through, see if you can get a pick for Read.

Yeah, that's another element of this deal. I readily acknowledge that Grigorenko has the higher upside of the likely players involved, but I'm reaching a point of concern regarding his future with the Sabres, and that has to be factored into the equation. If Grigorenko had been handled properly by the organization, then maybe things would be different. I'm just not really sure where I should peg him right now, and the thought of losing him for nothing really irks me. I'm hoping this trade helps me rest easier at night ...

[zipper14]

Yeah, that's another element of this deal. I readily acknowledge that Grigorenko has the higher upside of the likely players involved, but I'm reaching a point of concern regarding his future with the Sabres, and that has to be factored into the equation. If Grigorenko had been handled properly by the organization, then maybe things would be different. I'm just not really sure where I should peg him right now, and the thought of losing him for nothing really irks me. I'm hoping this trade helps me rest easier at night ...

I like boom or bust guys because they either leave you at the top or the bottom of the standings. The middle is the worst. Personally, I would stick Grigorenko in the lineup and live with it. Maybe I get a Connor McDavid out of it .

Saying that, Filatov and Connolly haunt my dreams. I guess it depends on your personal philosophy and how much you value restful sleep. The 15th overall pick wont be the end of the world for you; you may still get the guy you want at #19.

[plug]

I'm not sold on Reinhart having more upside than Bennett, or being NHL ready more quickly... Thinking you do this now and then after another year of disappointment you can get back G real cheap if you so desire.

[als_revenge]

My opinion probably won't be popular, but I think this talk about Grigs being ruined by Buffalo is overstated. Forsberg was drafted one spot before him and he has 6 points in 18 games in the NHL. Yes, Buffalo should have put Grigs back in junior sooner, but I've read they will keep him in the AHL full time this year...and only then will you get a solid sense of where he's at with his development.

To trade Grigorenko (plus the 15th, plus Read), to presumably draft another young C who will get selected by Buffalo (i.e. they have the 2nd pick overall)...are you sure that gets you that far ahead?

[Southpaw20]

My opinion probably won't be popular, but I think this talk about Grigs being ruined by Buffalo is overstated. Forsberg was drafted one spot before him and he has 6 points in 18 games in the NHL. Yes, Buffalo should have put Grigs back in junior sooner, but I've read they will keep him in the AHL full time this year...and only then will you get a solid sense of where he's at with his development.

To trade Grigorenko (plus the 15th, plus Read), to presumably draft another young C who will get selected by Buffalo (i.e. they have the 2nd pick overall)...are you sure that gets you that far ahead?

I agree with this. Although a risk, I don't believe we have seen the end of Grigs. I would prefer to stay where you're at and try to be patient with Grigs. Great upside there and would not give up on him just yet

[Ed.]

Read is a decent piece, but his actual salary will be $4 million for 15-16 and 16-17, for a player who will likely fall in the 40-50 point range. That's pretty replaceable. At 900k he was a stellar asset, but at 4M, not so much. He's 3M next year, which is half decent, but you're not looking to contend then anyway, right?

[The Hockey Hitman]

I wouldn't hesitate to make this deal...it's a bunch of fluff for a draft pick you can use to acquire a potential franchise player, or at least a very good top tier player. Take the no. 2 overall pick here.

[chuckcouples]

I would pass on the offer and stick with what you have. With 720 players already in your pool, you should keep 3 players instead of 1 since the difference between Read and Grigorenko and the 721st and 722nd player is going to be much larger than the difference between the 2nd pick and the 15th pick in this year's draft. Looking at the last NHL season, the 300th leading scorer (25 NHL players times 12 NHL teams) in the league had 24 points. Read has had at least 40 (prorated) in each of his NHL seasons. He also gets a ton of PK time and was in the top 50 for blocked shots for forwards.

[horrorfan]

I should mention that this deal is done, since I was his trading partner.

A bit more context - I am competing now so am willing to part with the 2nd overall, which is still a risk but there is also potential for a rebuilding club. For me, it was worth it to get a solid depth option (in this league, he is), who helps me better with my cap situation, a potential risky prospect but further along in development over soon-to-be draftees (you can argue 'further along' but you get my point) and another higher end prospect to compensate for my loss. Who knows this pick could give someone decent in a few years.

He is rebuilding and seemed to be willing to wait on the potential that this pick could end up as, especially as he also has the 3rd overall pick. I think that is key to this offer, knowing that he should get at least one of the Sam's (maybe both if the #1 goes Ekblad) was worth taking a chance on. Read has no real relevance on his squad given his needs, so that part was a fit between us. He was important to me because I needed some current production coming back as part of the package. I'll take the risk on Grigorenko and maybe he'll be relevant in a couple years.

I do feel this could be a win-win deal and only time will tell how it helps our squads.