Dobber's Playoff Pool after 1st round

[Shoeless]

Well when I started this thread, I was somewhere around 400-500th place, my boys got hot and I am up to about 136th now. To improve on that, I definitely need my primary teams to advance to the Stanley Cup and my secondary teams to make it to the Confernce finals. We shall see but as of now things are tracking well.

[Pengwin7]

Am I allowed to crush your bubble with my statistical forecasting?

I think there are like 700+ teams entered.
So, I'd guess that for anybody to have a chance, they need to roam in the top 20% each round.

Top 140 after one round.
Top 28 after two rounds.
Top 5 after three rounds.

If you are 136th right now... you are going to need a combination of players not owned.
The only teams in the 100s that I'd think would have a chance are those with MIN players where MIN pulls of the miracle series win (which ain't happenin) coupled with a team with MON players (where MON pulls off the win).

But 80% of the top 100 teams are assuredly riding LA/CHI/PIT/BOS quad.
So if you've got those guys too... you simply ain't leapfroggin into the top 20.

[doulos]

Pengwin's just in a 'ruin your day' kind of mood today it seems.

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

Wow and just like that I'm down to 29th place

[Pengwin7]

Pengwin's just in a 'ruin your day' kind of mood today it seems.

Shoeless knows that I like the numbers.
Shoeless' posts some good number predictions/forecasts in a league we do together.

I don't get it, Doulos.
What are you trying to get at?

[ericdaoust]

Proud of my team currently tied in 16th. Unfortunately I doubt it gets me over the top. Too many repeating picks in box pools.

[Laendarian]

Shoeless knows that I like the numbers.
Shoeless' posts some good number predictions/forecasts in a league we do together.

I don't get it, Doulos.
What are you trying to get at?

haha think he's trying to say you just smashed Shoeless' hopes and dreams of a cinderella comeback!

On the plus side I'm sitting 28th, so as long as i don't drop any more during this round I mathematically should still have a legit shot!

[mounD]

Currently in 7th place ... 4 points back from the leader. Riding CHI/PIT/BOS/LAK players right now. Hopefully I can manage a top-5 position; it would be really nice to get a freebie FPR from Dobbs.

[doulos]

Shoeless knows that I like the numbers.
Shoeless' posts some good number predictions/forecasts in a league we do together.

I don't get it, Doulos.
What are you trying to get at?

Just giving you the gears. By all means, keep hammering away at how hopeless his hockey pool team is if that's what you want to do.

[Pengwin7]

Just giving you the gears. By all means, keep hammering away at how hopeless his hockey pool team is if that's what you want to do.

Why would I keep hammering?
I already made my comment.
I'm confused.

[doulos]

I only lost 6 players in round 1 and am in 382nd spot. Even if Minnesota and Anaheim miraculously turn things around I'd be in tough to win.

[golfguy1672]

I'm in tied for 15th now. Riding Pittsburgh, Montreal, and LA the hardest.

If it's Montreal and LA in the finals I should win. StupidLisaGarbageFace ftw!

[wlussf]

Tied for 12th as the Ice Dogs. Riding the BOS/LA train!

[newfcollins]

240th spot. That puts me in the top third!

[Shoeless]

Pengwin - my goal over the years in Dobbers playoff pool has always been to finish in the top 10% - I have no illusions of winning, never have, I don't spend enough time selecting my teams and I only ever enter 1 team. It's just fun. One thing that has happened of interest is that I have clawed back the point spread to the leader from 31 points to 23 since the start of round 2.

I think your analysis is somewhst flawed in that it doesnt account for how hard someone is riding a particular couple of teams - a Stanley Final which goes long, that features two teams someone has consistently checked off players from is going to make up ground on teams that spread it more over 4 teams. I'm riding the Pens and Kings that hard - Bruins and Hawks as secondary plugs, it's going to work out okay or it isn't.