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Thread: A look at the Florida Panthers

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    Default A look at the Florida Panthers

    From my THN article today
    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/fa...season-report/


    FLORIDA PANTHERS

    Pending UFAs: Scott Gomez, Krys Barch, Jesse Winchester, Tom Gilbert, Scott Clemmensen, Ryan Whitney, Matt Gilroy, Mike Mottau.

    Pending RFAs: Dylan Olsen, Erik Gudbranson, Dmitry Kulikov, Jimmy Hayes, Brandon Pirri.


    Looking to add: The Panthers need help everywhere but between the pipes. They have plenty of prospects with very high upside, but no veteran star forward who can lead the charge. Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov and Nick Bjugstad could break out this year, three years from now, or never. Who knows? Without a top-end free agent being brought in, such as a Thomas Vanek, the breakout season for these kids is probably going to happen later rather than sooner.


    Ready for full-time: In 2013-14, half of the Panthers team seemed to be prospects making the jump to full-time duty. That’s the reason the team finished 29th. Huberdeau, Barkov, Bjugstad, Brandon Pirri and Jimmy Hayes are in the NHL to stay. By the end of the campaign, Drew Shore, Vincent Trocheck and Quinton Howden were up with the big club, and each of those three could feasibly stick for good in 2014-15.
    Of the three, only Trocheck has a good shot at getting on any fantasy rosters. Down the stretch, he was often seeing more than 20 minutes of ice time and wound up with eight points in his last 16 contests (and a minus-6). He had 42 points in 55 games as an AHL rookie for San Antonio prior to getting recalled.


    Fantasy Outlook: As is the case with all rebuilding teams, the Panthers are stocked with youth and prospects. But other than Tomas Fleischmann and Brian Campbell, the team does not have any veteran skaters with great upside. That will likely slow the rebuild process and will make for some painful seasons ahead. Without a rebound campaign from Huberdeau, and barring some of the other kids taking a big step forward, you’re probably going to see another season without any 50-point players. In 2013-14, the top scorer (Bjugstad) had just 38 points. Not too many fantasy owners are targeting Florida players. It’s nice to have prospects, but not when you have to wait three years on them. Fantasy Grade: D (last year was B+)
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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    I personally think Huberdeau as well as one of Bjugstad or Barkov are going to hit 50 points next year. They won't be as bad next year as some people think they might be, what moves they do during the off season will be key.

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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    Their new coach will be key.
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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    They were the unluckiest team in the league this year. Their shooting/save percentages are likely to go up by a total of 2.6%.

    They finished 29th, but they were actually a middle of the pack posession team, only .5% away from controlling exactly half the play.

    The numbers say they should be significantly better next year, maybe on the fringes of challenging for a playoff spot; that is without getting any better.

    Unfortunately, they actually lost a couple of key pieces. The two players that they relied on frequently in the defensive zone, Matthias and Goc, were both shipped out of town. A lack of a defensive keystone means they can't free up a player like Huberdeau (who got the most offensive zone starts) for a cushy role.

    A similar possesion team, the Coyotes, were able to free up Ribeiro for a 70% offensive-zone start ratio thanks to players like Vermette taking tougher assignments. If they can acquire some defensive forwards in the offseason, or trust an 18-year-old, bearded, defensemen with consistently tough assignments, players like Huberdeau should see a big jump in points.
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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    Quote Originally Posted by austeane View Post
    A similar possesion team, the Coyotes, were able to free up Ribeiro for a 70% offensive-zone start ratio...
    Huh. Didn't really work for Ribeiro....
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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    Quote Originally Posted by austeane View Post
    They were the unluckiest team in the league this year. Their shooting/save percentages are likely to go up by a total of 2.6%.

    They finished 29th, but they were actually a middle of the pack posession team, only .5% away from controlling exactly half the play.

    The numbers say they should be significantly better next year, maybe on the fringes of challenging for a playoff spot; that is without getting any better.

    Unfortunately, they actually lost a couple of key pieces. The two players that they relied on frequently in the defensive zone, Matthias and Goc, were both shipped out of town. A lack of a defensive keystone means they can't free up a player like Huberdeau (who got the most offensive zone starts) for a cushy role.

    A similar possesion team, the Coyotes, were able to free up Ribeiro for a 70% offensive-zone start ratio thanks to players like Vermette taking tougher assignments. If they can acquire some defensive forwards in the offseason, or trust an 18-year-old, bearded, defensemen with consistently tough assignments, players like Huberdeau should see a big jump in points.


    Duuuuude... nice post.
    Shit man... very nice. (REP)

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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    B+ is way beyond generous...as Fox Mulder used to say "I want to Believe" but EDM and FLA have been the cruel joke on fantasy owners for the better part of the last decade, despite all the blue chip prospects they just continue to suck and suck and suck more. There's been no indication from either team that this is going to change anytime soon so the fact that people keep clinging to this myth is baffling. Yeah sure, they do have to get better at some point, but the problem is that the way they're going, even if they do improve it's going to be very marginal improvement at best, it's not going to be this 180 everyone seems to be predicting.

    You need to get a grip Dobber, the leading scorer last year on FL didn't even hit 40 pts! You had EIGHT (count em EIGHT) players predicted for 40 or more pts last year...that's not a D grade man, that's a ****ing F-
    So if you're not gonna grade yourself accurately even with hindsight, why should we be buying into such a bullish prediction for next year? Be realistic, the best case scenario is more likely a C grade where the best prospects add 15 pts to their totals

    I like their potential long term (like EDM), but if I'm a fantasy owner, I'm not buying it til I see at least a hint of growth and change

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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    Quote Originally Posted by STONE. View Post
    Huh. Didn't really work for Ribeiro....
    No it didn't "work" for him, but it certainly worked for the Sedins.
    The difference between this season and their 100 point seasons?
    A drop in O-zone start rate of 20%. Their crazy start rates were a big part of their success.

    How do we know that he wouldn't have had an even worse season without cushy zone starts? In general, there is a pretty clear correlation (both statistically and eye-test wise) between getting a bunch of chances in the offensive end of the ice and shooting/scoring more.


    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Duuuuude... nice post.
    Shit man... very nice. (REP)
    Thanks!

    Quote Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo View Post
    B+ is way beyond generous...as Fox Mulder used to say "I want to Believe" but EDM and FLA have been the cruel joke on fantasy owners for the better part of the last decade, despite all the blue chip prospects they just continue to suck and suck and suck more. There's been no indication from either team that this is going to change anytime soon so the fact that people keep clinging to this myth is baffling. Yeah sure, they do have to get better at some point, but the problem is that the way they're going, even if they do improve it's going to be very marginal improvement at best, it's not going to be this 180 everyone seems to be predicting.

    You need to get a grip Dobber, the leading scorer last year on FL didn't even hit 40 pts! You had EIGHT (count em EIGHT) players predicted for 40 or more pts last year...that's not a D grade man, that's a ****ing F-
    So if you're not gonna grade yourself accurately even with hindsight, why should we be buying into such a bullish prediction for next year? Be realistic, the best case scenario is more likely a C grade where the best prospects add 15 pts to their totals

    I like their potential long term (like EDM), but if I'm a fantasy owner, I'm not buying it til I see at least a hint of growth and change
    Everyone has a bad day, but he definitely gave them a "D" grade for this upcoming year. Last year he gave them a B+.
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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    Quote Originally Posted by austeane View Post
    Everyone has a bad day, but he definitely gave them a "D" grade for this upcoming year. Last year he gave them a B+.
    d'oh! got that backwards! Yikes, that makes last season scary bad...if he's that bad at predicting the Panthers, then maybe next season is going to be a massive breakout year!

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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    anyone wanna throw thoughts around about kulikov? does he resign? where does he go if not? and can we see his offense potential anytime soon again?
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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    I recently read that the owner Viola reported NHL Panther losses of about 25 million dollars on the year. He has also gone to the government seeking to mitigate his losses.

    Not to worry though folks Viola is a big time market maker. The guy is flush with cash, loves hockey and wants to build a winner the right way in South Florida.

    To this end I believe he signs Callahan, borrows a page from the Tampa play book and continues to build something. If Vancouver fires Torts I would think he makes a nice fit for the Panthers.

    Regarding Kulikov, I think the russian enjoys the South Beach lifestyle and wants to stay. Its not like the Panthers have a ton of high end guys to retain on salary anyway. Its going to boil down to his agent's position when it comes to terms (as it always does)
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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    I thought i am the sole Panthers fan on the Dobberboards i offer my personal opinion to the mess the Florida Panthers are. Since i watch nearly all games throughout the year, have all relevant twitter sources, fanpages etc. followed i can tell there is so much wrong Information about this team in terms of Fantasy hockey boards its unbelievable. There will be huge changing coming for the Panthers for next season. Starting with the head coach, throughout the whole lineup. For the first time in history the Panthers have an owner, who is willing to spend big time Money.

    So lets start with the goalie position:

    With Luuu back in town the starting gig is set. Ellis proofed he is one of the worst backups in the NHL in just a few games. The rumors are pretty strong that he might be bought out and a younger backup will be brought in. I don´t expect anything fancy here but there will be a change. Whoever gets the backup spot will not see much time either way.
    In terms of prospect Houser and Brittan both have been very solid so far but don´t have elite potential. There is a high change the Panthers will add a goalie prospect or two via draft. They might actually use their early 2nd round pick on Demko, who Tallon supposed to be a huge fan of. Especially since he plays with Matheson and McCoshen already in BU.

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    The defense for the panthers has been a mess. Everybody has been reporting how bad our offensive is. But offense strongly relies on a solid D. If you spent so much time defending you actually don´t have much time attacking. This is also represented in the times spent in the offensive zone.


    As for what will change next season there are only few sure fire things. Brian Campbell will return on the 1st pairing and Gudbranson will also return. The other 4 spots are not set in stone.

    I expect Kulikov to be resigned if there isn´t a great deal for a winger out there. So that would leave 3 spots. Tallon stated he will add 2 defenders in the offseason. With the huge possibility of drafting Ekblad at #1 this might even be three. Gilbert will most likley not return to the time, which is a good thing. He was a stop gap and not more, despite being actually kinda okayish.

    Niskanen, Meszaros will be on the target list from what i´ve heard and a guy like Stone from PHX is a likley target if they explore the trade route.

    Dylan Olsen has been stellar to start the season but has been not very good unless he was paired with Gudbranson. Those two had found some chemistry along the way. But i expect him being the odd man out being the number seven Defender on this team.

    In terms of prospects Robak has a last chance to prove himself but in the end will end up a AHLer with the chance of some callups per season. Matheson has just stated he will return to college for one year and so will McCoshen. Petrovic was the Rampage best D last season but will need at least one year of AHLplay to get NHL minutes. They will not rush the guy.

    Keep an eye on Jonathan Racine as a third pairing callup. He has NHLer written all over him and might be the Weaver replacement rather sooner than later.

    Also the Panthers have found a gem last draft with MacKenzie Weegar in the 7th round who has been nothing but stellar for Halifax. Tallon is already talking about him as the PP-QB of the future. Expections might be too high, but grab the guy in deep leagues already.



    Campbell- FA1 (f.e. Meszaros/Niskanen)
    Kulikov- FA2/Trade (f.e. Stone)
    Gudbranson- FA/Trade/Olsen (f.e. Ekblad,?)

    FA/Trade/Olsen

    Petrovic,Robak,Racine as callups.


    The Forwards:

    The most crowded position on the Panthers depth charts is by the C spot. Barkov,Bjugstad,Pirri,Trochek,Shore with Grimaldi and Rau waiting in the pipes will be downright awesome if compared to whatever we had for the last decade.

    It isn´t even out of question that the Panthers draft one of the Sams with the #1 in this years entry draft. But if that happens they will be used as wingers since the C spot is so crowded.

    Barkov and Bjugstad will lock down the first two C spots and after that its an open battle.

    The scenario expected by most is that Brandon Pirri will convert to wing, Vincent Trochek will get another season in the AHL, a expirienced Nr.3 or Nr.4 C will be brought in and Drew Shore will handle the leftover positon.

    In terms of wingers things are worthy of getting outburst of tears. The Panthers need goal scoring above everything else and that is what they will adress over the offseason. Tallon will bring in at least two top-6 wingers and will spend huge money to do so. The wish list include Vanek,Moulson,Vrbata,Callahan... Also there is the chance of Kevin Hayes signing in Sunrise if not in Calgary, with his brother having a word to say about it.

    Jonathan Huberdeau will obv. return but i would strongly suggest to lower your expectations. He has looked brutal so far and after seeing a ton of sophormore slumps over the years he scares me more than most. He is still dealing with his injury but also is floating a ton. Huby tries to be way too fancy. If he does not get his act together there and keeps it more simple and in addition to that will bulk up he will be a major bust.

    Brad Boyes and Bergenheim will both be back but both in less minute heavy roles. Bergy might find himself on Barkovs wing thanks to their chemistry but its not a given at all.
    Both guys might profit from less weight on their shoulders.

    Jimmy Hayes will return as a 4th line winger and will continue to see some powerplaytime. He knows how to use his big framed Body there but he lacks the skill to be more than short term fixture on the PP.

    Jesse Winchester has been a pleasent suprise and might also return for the other 4th line spot, unless Q.Howden proves in camp that he is ready. I expect Q to return to San Antonio for one more season. The time of rushing prospects is over.

    Now there are two guys that have been the unpleasent suprises for last season. Thomas Kopecky and Thomas Fleischmann. Both were personally called out by Tallon and both are not returning if Tallon gets his way.

    Kopecky is a prime candidate for a buyout and Flash is a great trade asset with the expiring contract plus the bounce back potential. He will be the guy dealt for a D in my opinion.

    In terms of prospects. Well besides Q.Howden the Panthers don´t have anything worthy of meantioning on the wing.

    This leaves us with:

    FA1( f.e. Moulson,Vanek) - Barkov -Pirri
    Huberdeau- Bjugstad - FA2 (f.e.Callahan,Vrbata) ( top 6 are interchangeable)
    Bergenheim- FA3/Shore- Boyes
    Winchester/FA4- Shore/FA3- Hayes

    Callups: Trochek, Howden


    Overall with the bad luck the Panthers had, which was already pointed out by a poster above, a non-rookie head coach, and finally open pockets to spend on players the Panthers will not contend for McDavid next season but will fight for a wildcard spot in 2014-15. And it would not surprise if they actually sneak in.
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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    Great write up Key!

    +1
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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    Quote Originally Posted by keytolife View Post
    I thought i am the sole Panthers fan on the Dobberboards i offer my personal opinion to the mess the Florida Panthers are. Since i watch nearly all games throughout the year, have all relevant twitter sources, fanpages etc. followed i can tell there is so much wrong Information about this team in terms of Fantasy hockey boards its unbelievable.
    Finally, some real insight from a knowledgeable Panthers fan! I'm not a fan myself, but I'm one of those who thinks this team could surprise next season. Now the real question is: Who do you think would be a nice sleeper pick next season? I've mentioned this before in another thread but I think Bjugstad is a stud in the making, and he and Luongo would make great late round picks next year.

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    Default Re: A look at the Florida Panthers

    Quote Originally Posted by Dikoi View Post
    Finally, some real insight from a knowledgeable Panthers fan! I'm not a fan myself, but I'm one of those who thinks this team could surprise next season. Now the real question is: Who do you think would be a nice sleeper pick next season? I've mentioned this before in another thread but I think Bjugstad is a stud in the making, and he and Luongo would make great late round picks next year.
    This depends on how deep your league is and what you are looking for. If you want assists i´d go with Barkov, if you want goals Bjugstad is the better option. I would def. suggest to wait out the offseason and see what happens in terms of wingers. If they miss out i might gamble on Pirri. He has a nose for the net and has not played with Barkov yet, who will be an awesome setup man.
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